Fast Production Ramps at Fifth Tesla Fremont Line and Shanghai Possible in 2020

Tesla will announce deliveries for the third quarter next week and the Wall Street consensus estimate is for 98,000 cars. Historically Tesla would try to make an extra push to reach 100,000 cars if they were that close to a milestone number. The reports are that Tesla sales growth in Europe are strong and China sales are strong.

UPDATE: There are reports of an email from Elon Musk that 100,000 deliveries in the third quarter is possible. Elon is of course pushing for 100,000 deliveries from his employees.

There are reports that Tesla could start China manufacturing on October 14, 2019. This would mean the initial mass production ramp would be in the fourth quarter. Tesla could hit the 360,000-400,000 cars delivery estimate for 2019. This would take 2000 cars were built in the fourth quarter in China and hitting or exceeding Wall Streets estimate of 358,000 cars in 2019 from Fremont.

Tesla is building a fifth production line in Fremont. Fully ramping production from that line would mean an addition 25% production in 2020 from Fremont. This would be 100,000 cars in addition to about 400,000 cars from the other lines in 2020 from Fremont.

Tesla has given the Version 10 software update. This will allow Tesla to recognize $100+ million of prepayments for software features.

Expansion of the Tesla Shanghai Factory also appears to have already started.

Fast ramping of Tesla production in new Fremont and Shanghai facilities could see 800,000 Tesla made and delivered in 2020. This would be 500,000 in Fremont and 300,000 in Shanghai.

The following videos are not as optimistic and do not consider an October start for the production ramp in Shanghai. This would move up ramping estimates by one quarter. There is also no boost from a fifth Fremont production line.

SOURCES : Tesla, Youtube
Written By Brian Wang,

9 thoughts on “Fast Production Ramps at Fifth Tesla Fremont Line and Shanghai Possible in 2020”

  1. Not that crazy.

    Throughout history, political turmoil in strategic resource suppliers has resulted in people being forced to develop substitutes and alternative supplies. This often ends up meaning those original suppliers lose their previous market dominance if not their market all together.

    Just one sort of relevant example: The Middle East had millennia of trading wealth from supplying spices, silks, dyes etc to Europe from India, China and other East Asian sources.

    The Turkish takeover of the Byzantine Empire and resultant suppression of trade routes to Christendom pushed the Europeans to develop intercontinental ships. Which pretty much killed off the Middle East as a trade route for centuries. (Until the Suez canal approximately.)

  2. I don’t think profitability happens until about midway through the life-cycle of the model Y release. model Y is much cheaper to produce and currently occupies a separate niche from the rest of tesla’s lineup. but here’s hoping. I think roughly 30% increase in sales volume for Tesla, even at the same compositions will result in profitability.

    exciting times, you’ve got pickup in the pipeline, and likely solar roof/HVAC/battery integration next year.

  3. Impressive. it’s amazing fast they ramp the production in China. I do hope that they can reach profitability in the third quarter already.

  4. If demand starts to flag they can always just blow up another oil facility in the middle east.

    I joke. Or at least I hope I do.

  5. It doesn’t matter if tesla sells 1 car from the China factory in 2019, eventually, Tesla will sell hundreds of thousands of cars from the China factory, probably in 2020.

  6. Another 100k sold? I thought there was no demand for electric cars. Im sure theres a cut off point somewhere but Tesla hasnt found it yet.

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