Indian Government Report 5% GDP Growth But Slowdown is Probably Worse

India’s Gross domestic product rose by 5 percent in the first quarter of 2019-20 compared to 5.8 percent in the previous quarter, according to the Central Statistics Office. In gross value added terms, the economy grew at 4.9 percent in the April-June period, compared to 5.7 percent last quarter. It is the first time since 2013 when India has had two quarters with less than 6% GDP growth.

The NY Times reports that early economic indicator statistics used by Alan Greenspan look terrible. Greenspan would often look at sales of men’s underwear as a guide to where an economy was headed. India’s mend’s underwear sales are down 50 percent. Cars sales are down 32 percent.

SOURCES- Bloomberg Quint, NY Times
Written By Brian Wang,

9 thoughts on “Indian Government Report 5% GDP Growth But Slowdown is Probably Worse”

  1. As oppose to Kansas. It wasn’t long ago that China was dirt poor. They will take their lumps in stride. I doubt we will do the same.

  2. Near term GDP statistics are usually inaccurate. I wouldn’t go crazy about them. Check the VAT revenues to see if the people are still spending money.

  3. Don’t you know that all governments talk about growth rate related to one year even if they talk about one quarter. They don’t want to report figures like 1,25% per quarter because it would sound small so they multiplicate it times 4 and report 5%.

  4. You are correct. The actual words used by the original article say 5% growth in 3 months. But the safe assumption is that the original author was just using imprecise language and the real claim is 5% annual growth rate, measured over the last 3 months.

    Otherwise India would be trumpeting this amazing 20% growth rate to the skies.

  5. India’s announced a major tax cut for corporations, which has caused a surge in its stock market. The slowdown has been due to its crackdown on deadbeat borrowers, as well as black market money. These are reformist measures that will reap benefits in the future.

  6. Wait, I read this as 5% rise in 3 months, so over the whole year the change would be 5%*4 approximately, or about 20%. Or is it 5% from March 2018 to March 2019, annual change? Or is it 5%/4, so it gives about 5% over the whole year?

    Should there be some term or a word to describe it more precise?

  7. And where is China standing with regard to the trade war slow down? We will probably not going to know for sure as the data is make believe, what we do know is that it is at the epicentre of the crisis, the country most hit.

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