Tesla After Model Y and the China Factory Start

Tesla appears to have 100,000 sales in the third quarter of 2019 and the fourth quarter should see up to 20,000 cars from the Shanghai Gigafactory.

The Shanghai Gigafactory could add 150,000 to 250,000 cars in 2020. Tesla could produce 450,000 to 500,00 cars from the Fremont factory.

The Tesla Model Y will start production in the fall of 2020.

A new European Gigafactory should start production in 2021.

Nextbigfuture expects two to four more Gigafactories to be opened in 2021-2022. They will likely be in Asia.

A big factor for the future of Tesla is when will they introduce the Maxwell dry batteries and how good will the energy density, cost improvement and production improvement be with the dry batteries.

Tesla completed the purchase of Maxwell Technologies which will give Tesla higher energy density batteries, lower costs for batteries, double battery life and will allow battery factories to have 16 times the production in the same space. If Tesla is able to capture the reduction in factory space from Maxwell Technologies then Tesla will be able to massively boost battery and car production from each of its factories.

Maxwell claimed they have already proved 300 Wh/kg energy density is which 20-40% better than current Tesla batteries. Maxwell has a path with 15-25% improvement every 2-3 years. This should lead to 500 Wh/kg by 2027. Tesla might be able to get 385 Wh/kg in batteries in 2020.

The other technology that will boost Tesla sales and profitability is constant improvements to self-driving capabilities.

Maxwell had a 15-page investor presentation from January 16, 2019 from the 21st Annual Needham Growth Conference.

Solid State Batteries Can Compete on Energy Density But Are Six to Ten Years Away

Panasonic has said solid state batteries are ten years away. Volkswagen thinks they can get them by 2025. Fisker has delayed solid-state batteries from 2020 to 2022.

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