Bulls vs Bears on Tesla

Tesla bears still claim that competition is coming for Tesla, but the bulls note that no electric car can yet match the 2012 version of the Model S. Tesla has since improved the Model S by 40%.

China has large overall electric car sales. However, the best electric car models in China are still inferior to Tesla in terms of range of features.

Tesla now has 22.8% gross margin on its cars. Other makers are behind the learning curve and would to have to sell electric cars at a loss to match Tesla’s features and pricing.

Tesla is continuing to make process and technological improvements in all aspects of the car, factory and production processes.

Ark Invest believes that with each doubling of the units produced of a new product (Wright’s law) then there is a 15% lowering of costs. Tesla has made about 875,000 cars in its history. 360,000+ will be built in 2019. They should produce 600,000 cars in 2020. The China factory and the learning curve benefit could move Tesla to a 30% margin even with even lower selling prices.

The Shanghai factory could reach nearly 150,000 cars in 2020 and the Fremont factory could get close to 500,000 cars in 2020.

Tesla could start a new Europe factory in 2021. The Shanghai factory will get more expansions in 2021. This could be 300,000 cars in 2021 in Shanghai. This could mean nearly 1 million cars in 2021.

Tesla is ramping its solar and home battery business again. The California fires will be a massive boost to this area.

Tesla will be building on its lead with batteries using the Maxwell dry batteries. Those will have higher energy density and lower cost.

Tesla will be adding more and more self-driving capabilities. Self-driving robotaxi’s should have an 80% margin business.

Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com