In June 2019 at the Ending Age-Related Diseases 2019, James Peyer of Kronos BioVentures gave a talk about the investment aspects of rejuvenation biotechnology.
He explained the effects of the population pyramid, showing the audience why cures for age-related diseases are such a necessity, and comparing population projections.
One hundred years ago, the three leading causes of death for humanity were influenza, tuberculosis, and pneumonia. Today they are dementias, cancer, and cardiovascular diseases.
The old-age dependency ratio is the number of people 65 and older divided by the number of people younger than 65, the working-age adults 15-64. These ratios are rising dramatically over this century. In 1950, the dependency ratio was 12% in the developed world, and this will be almost 50% by 2100.
By the time people are 75 about 41% of all people have at least two chronic conditions and many of them have more. This is problem with only curing one disease like cancer. We need to massively reduce all diseases as we age to get radical life extension.
If Kronos and James Peyer are correct in forecasting the progress of life extension, then those born in the 1960-1970s with access to the leading edge of life extension will have less than a 30% chance of significant life extension. Those people would always be at the edge of not getting enough life extension if ten years of antiaging occurs by 2050 and 20 years by 2070. The odds would be vastly better for those born in 2000 or later.
He explained the startup ecosystem in biotechnology, drug approval, and IPO prices for nascent biotechnology companies.
About 75% of new drugs come from biotech startups.
He explained the financial issues facing startup biotechnology companies and his company’s role in helping these companies achieve their goals.
Startups need to transition to being bought by big pharma or bring in different teams for success at later stages.
SOURCES- Kronos, James Peyer
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Now that we can edit DNA fairly well, it alows us to do animal studies much quicker if we need to modify the animal so we can see if our intervention will work. And better understanding, molecular modeling and such can generate candidate treatments. However, the process of actually running the experiments and trials takes time because there is a required process involved…approvals etc. Also anything that addresses aging requires time for the studies to show they are working.
Usually, these prediction account only for development at past or present speed.
If we account for Moore’s Law and Kurzweil’s Law we could be a bit more optimistic.
Faster computing mean faster/cheaper research and faster research mean faster results.
The top 5 list I gave was global, as the statement I was evaluating has “causes of death for humanity” in it.
The US is probably similar to much of the developed world: US top causes:
1.Diseases of heart
2.Malignant neoplasms (AKA cancer)
3.Chronic lower respiratory diseases
4.Accidents (unintentional injuries)
5.Cerebrovascular diseases (AKA stroke)
6.Alzheimer’s disease
7.Diabetes
8.Influenza and pneumonia
9.Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis (AKA Kidney Disease)
10.Intentional self-harm (suicide)
11.Septicemia (harmful bacteria in the blood)
12.Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis
13.Essential hypertension and hypertensive renal disease (High blood pressure damaging the Kidneys)
14.Parkinson’s disease
15.Pneumonitis due to solids and liquids (can’t cough with enough force to get stuff out of your lungs, so it stays there, causes inflammation and kills you)
19.9% other
But sense we are talking about aging it makes the most sense to see what is killing really old people: 100 years+:
1.Diseases of heart 34.2%
2.Alzheimer’s disease 9.8%
3.Cerebrovascular diseases 6.9%
4.Influenza and pneumonia 4.3%
5.Malignant neoplasms 4.1%
6.Chronic lower respiratory diseases 2.8
7.Essential hypertension and hypertensive renal disease 2.5
8.Accidents 2.2
9.Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis 1.8
10.Pneumonitis due to solids and liquids 1.2
11.Diabetes 1.0
12.Septicemia 0.9
13.Atherosclerosis 0.8
14.Nutritional deficiencies 0.6
15.Parkinson’s disease 0.3
26.6% other
Yes, I don’t know what the pterostilbene is supposed to contribute. It is an antioxidant, though there may be other better choices. I take grape seed extract, alpha lipoic acid, green tea pills, and I drink hibiscus tea and a berry smoothie. And vitamins. I am allergic to olive leaf extract or I would take that one too. Gave me a silent migraine. This is a bizarre phenomena where you see the auras that often accompany migraines but don’t have the pain of migraines (I don’t get migraines). I have only had this twice. Once 10 years ago or so…no idea what was happening. But after an extensive Google search, I figured it out. Though I don’t know what I did to trigger it. The second time was right after I took the olive leaf extract supplement…so no big deduction necessary that time. I already knew extra virgin olive oil was not really my friend. I would get an irritated mouth and throat. Took the pill thinking I was dodging the mouth and throat issue. But evidently that was not brilliant.
Heart disease 23.4%
Cancer 22.5%
Smoking 5.6%
Accidents 5.2%
Strokes 5.1%
Alzheimer’s 3.6%
Diabetes 2.9%
Flu 2.1%
Kidney disease 1.8%
Suicide 1.6%
Oddly, enough, the goal seems to be to make suicide number one.
I also heard that the 2nd active ingredient in the Basis pterostilbene supposedly raises bad cholesterol. I started my mom (who was diagnosed with moderate dementia) on Tru-Niagen; same supplier for the NR as Basis without the 2nd component. May switch myself to it when my Basis subscription runs out.
I prefer Niagen because the company that makes Basis stiffed the maker (they had a contract to source the NR from Chromadex, received the shipment then chose not to pay for it) then tried to make the stuff themselves using information from a former employee when they ran out even though it did not have the patent rights and is making a version that has dangerous impurities (Chromadex alleges anyway). The courts are very slow in dealing with this. Chromadex is being hurt by the court foot dragging. Elysium Basis has much better advertising…but that is about it.
You can take this with a grain of salt if you wish, as I am invested in Chromadex. But if you do your research, I think you would agree with me. By the way, the stock is super low right now: https://www.google.com/search?q=cdxc&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b-1-e
$2.87 at the moment. They have dealings with Nestle and some big supplement chain in Europe, so eventually they should do fine. They spend too much on studies, I think, and not the ones I would run. It is hard to show anti-aging effects, because of the time involved. I think they should be studying instead its benefits around pregnancy/growth. Once they get the money rolling in then do this slower anti-aging stuff. A sleep study was done using NR, for older people. I think the results will be good, but who knows when it will get published.
None of this maters to consumers, I suppose, except the purity issues. I admit, Elysium is a very cool name.
I know the feeling….born in 1959. Take Berberine instead of metformin since I don’t have diabetes doubt if my doctor would write the script. I also take Elysium Basis for the Nicotinamide Riboside.
Low level lead also causes many lives to be cut short, but it is not easy to say who, just deduce how many (256,000 premature deaths in the US per year): https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180312201739.htm
It basically causes high blood pressure which can cause all sorts of issues. Commonly that pressure damages the kidneys. And those guys are important. They clean the blood. They also remove AGEs which cause all sorts of health issues: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_glycation_end-product
Actually, in the real top 3 in the US is medical mistakes. Since the medical people are the ones that record cause, they obviously have no incentive to acknowledge their mistakes as there is generally a liability issue involved.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/22/medical-errors-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-america.html
Here is the US list: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/LCWK1_2015.pdf The order changes year to year. And obviously at more ages you are more likely to die of one thing than another. I don’t think it includes those medical mistakes as accidents. They just list whatever they were being treated for or conditions they had when they came in. I used to have a link to a page that gave a very detailed breakdown. It listed all the kinds of fatal accidents. I remember being surprised how many old people tripped on their dogs. If you have to have one, get something small so they don’t trip you up. http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/03/27/fall.dogs.cats/
In tropical countries you will get a lot of tropical disease deaths. Poor countries, diseases from poor sanitation, and no shoes…nutrition deficits….childbirth medical issues. In some countries lax traffic laws or lax enforcement of traffic laws leads to a lot of auto accidents. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate And obviously smoking and drinking rates can be very different country to country. Air pollution… Water pollution… Lead and other toxins… War…
I think old fashioned injuries are in the top 5 too. Car accidents, falls, etc.
It depends how you measure it, over what time period, which population etc.
Not a terribly encouraging projection for those born in the 1960s and 1970s. “…those born in the 1960-1970s with access to the leading edge of life extension will have less than a 30% chance of significant life extension.” Got my metformin at least. Doing intermittent fasting. Grandparents lived fairly long. And I am keeping my eye out for extension options. Hope that puts me with the 30%…if it really will be limited to that. I think we have already found things. Not all of these have been thoroughly proven, but I am ready to hop onboard anyway as long as the risks are small.
“One hundred years ago, the three leading causes of death for humanity were influenza, tuberculosis, and pneumonia. Today they are dementias, cancer, and cardiovascular diseases.”
Nope.
#1 Cardiovascular Diseases 17.65 million
#2 Cancers 8.93 m
#3 Respiratory Diseases 3.54 m
#4 Diabetes, Blood and Endocrine disease 3.19 m
#5 Lower respiratory infections 2.57 m
Respiratory Diseases could probably be nearly eliminated by: clean grid, clean transportation, clean heating and cooking; the ban of tobacco for anything other than occasional religious use by Native Americans; the automation of most mines; radon gas screening of homes; and the worldwide ban of the use of asbestos. These measures would likely reduce cancers also, as lung/bronchial cancer is, by a wide margin, the leading form of lethal cancers in both men and women. Lung cancer (Including Bronchus) totals 142,670 deaths in the US. Second is Colon and Rectal (Combined) 51,020. Pancreatic is third with 45,750. Breast cancer is fourth at 42,260. So Lung Cancer kills more than the three next leading types of cancers combined. There are some other miscellaneous causes of lung cancer like vapors from rat feces…but these numbers are low.
#6 Lower respiratory infections are mostly: adenovirus, coronavirus, parainfluenza, influenza and rhinovirus. And 100 years ago they would not really be able to tell the difference, so they would just call it influenza or pneumonia. And 1.8 m still die of tuberculosis globally.