Nextbigfuture predicts that the efforts to recall California Governor Newsom will succeed in getting over 1.5 million signatures certified before the February 2020 and/or March 2020 deadlines. This would force a special recall vote with an up-down on the recall and votes for a possible replacement.
The actual recall vote could still be won by Newsom. It is still highly likely that the recall vote would not remove Newsom. It is also highly likely that the replacement would be another Democrat.
The reason the signatures will be obtained is that it will only take about 30-40% of the people affected by the repeating safety power outages in Northern and Southern California, fires and traffic problems from power outages to sign the recall to put the signatures drives over the voter threshold.
One of the major parts of any governor recall election will be having credible and aggressive plans to rapidly fix the utility grid and forest management issues. There will also be the other issues of homelessness.
Details of Recall Process
Under California law, any elected official may be the target of a recall campaign. To trigger a recall election, proponents of the recall must gather a certain number of signatures from registered voters within a certain time period. The number of signatures statewide must equal 12% of the number of votes cast in the previous election for that office.
Under most circumstances in which a recall campaign against a statewide elected official has gathered the required number of signatures, the governor is required to schedule a special election for the recall vote. If the recall campaign qualified less than 180 days prior to the next regularly scheduled election, then the recall becomes part of that regularly scheduled election. In recall of the governor, the responsibility for scheduling a special election falls on the lieutenant governor.
The recall ballot has two components:
* a yes or no vote for recall, and the names of replacement candidates, selected by the nomination process used in regular elections.
* The recall measure itself is successful if it passes by a majority. In that case, the replacement candidate with a simple plurality of votes wins the office. If the recall measure fails, the replacement candidate votes are ignored.
The Cruz recall was approved for circulation by the California Secretary of State on September 6, 2019. Supporters of that recall have until February 13, 2020, to collect 1,495,709 signatures to force a recall election.
The Veltmeyer recall was approved for circulation on September 27, 2019. Supporters of the recall have until March 5, 2020, to collect 1,495,709 signatures to force a recall election