Prediction that California Will Have Recall Election for Governor in 2020

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Nextbigfuture predicts that the efforts to recall California Governor Newsom will succeed in getting over 1.5 million signatures certified before the February 2020 and/or March 2020 deadlines. This would force a special recall vote with an up-down on the recall and votes for a possible replacement.

The actual recall vote could still be won by Newsom. It is still highly likely that the recall vote would not remove Newsom. It is also highly likely that the replacement would be another Democrat.

The reason the signatures will be obtained is that it will only take about 30-40% of the people affected by the repeating safety power outages in Northern and Southern California, fires and traffic problems from power outages to sign the recall to put the signatures drives over the voter threshold.

One of the major parts of any governor recall election will be having credible and aggressive plans to rapidly fix the utility grid and forest management issues. There will also be the other issues of homelessness.

Details of Recall Process

Under California law, any elected official may be the target of a recall campaign. To trigger a recall election, proponents of the recall must gather a certain number of signatures from registered voters within a certain time period. The number of signatures statewide must equal 12% of the number of votes cast in the previous election for that office.

Under most circumstances in which a recall campaign against a statewide elected official has gathered the required number of signatures, the governor is required to schedule a special election for the recall vote. If the recall campaign qualified less than 180 days prior to the next regularly scheduled election, then the recall becomes part of that regularly scheduled election. In recall of the governor, the responsibility for scheduling a special election falls on the lieutenant governor.

The recall ballot has two components:
* a yes or no vote for recall, and the names of replacement candidates, selected by the nomination process used in regular elections.
* The recall measure itself is successful if it passes by a majority. In that case, the replacement candidate with a simple plurality of votes wins the office. If the recall measure fails, the replacement candidate votes are ignored.

The Cruz recall was approved for circulation by the California Secretary of State on September 6, 2019. Supporters of that recall have until February 13, 2020, to collect 1,495,709 signatures to force a recall election.

The Veltmeyer recall was approved for circulation on September 27, 2019. Supporters of the recall have until March 5, 2020, to collect 1,495,709 signatures to force a recall election

25 thoughts on “Prediction that California Will Have Recall Election for Governor in 2020”

  1. Some power lines will be put underground but the time and cost required to do it means it would take decades to do. Another thing being done is that the lower voltage distribution lines will be replaced with insulated wire instead of uninsulated wire.

    For the high voltage transmission lines there is no easy or low cost solutions. At 100,000 KV and higher insulated lines are too heavy to put on towers. And durying these lines costs even more money than the distribution lines.

    There is a process available for cities or a county in california to set up there own utility.. The city or county would maintain the distribution lines, and buy and sell power. But in most cases the power they purchase would be delivered on the same power lines that are failing and are owned by the utilitities.

  2. Silicon Valley most certainly did not close down. I was here in Santa Clara and the lights didn’t even flicker, not once!

  5. A couple of things…

    First, the vegetation near and under the lines is PG&E’s responsibility. Second, any real “forest” management in California is on US and not California Government land. Third, none of the recent fires was on land that anybody would consider to be forested. My fourth, most important and final point, almost all the fires were caused by malfunctioning equipment and not trees contacting lines so what you are talking about is a total flaming red herring with a cherry on top!

  6. It is disgusting but you can price the cost of dead people. I figure about $3 million per based on lost wages over rest of life.

  7. CA Supreme Court Justice Rose Bird was removed from office by a majority of voters in 1986. She was initially appointed to the office by Gov. Moonbeam, but was subject to periodic reconfirmation by voters.

  8. I don’t live there so I really have no beef in this discussion, but what actually burns? The towers or the vegetation? And isn’t forest management part of the governments responsibilities? Would it not be cheaper and a quicker fix to organise clear cuts under and near power lines? And since it is not only power lines that start fires, you need appropriate fire breaks as well. That is just one of the things with nature – forests burn. They burned long before there was anything like electricity and they will carry on burning long after you buried your lines.

  9. Does anyone know if there are any efforts to bury California’s power infrastructure where it crosses forests?
    Also, is anyone talking about making electricity in California a public utility again? Even though it is different I can’t help having flashbacks to Enron purposefully playing blackout games with California’s power to manipulate market prices.

  10. While PG&E is primarily responsible, remember that the California government, in the form of the California Public Utilities Commission, which is appointed by the governor, was supposed to set rules for PG&E and insure that PG&E followed those rules.

    So the California government shares responsibility to the extent that they did not make sure the rules they set were the right rules and were followed properly by PG&E.

    I’m not involved in either recall effort, but I believe I understand the motivation of at least some of the people who are driving it. Certainly some, maybe most, of them are driven by “never let a good catastrophe go to waste” base political motives. But some who would support it feel that the government has not recognized how deeply PG&E and the rules the government sets for them need to be changed, and so feel the government needs to be changed. The problem extends well beyond Newsom, of course, and it isn’t clear that anyone who the recall might put in his place would do much to improve the situation.

  11. Nero fiddles in Anzio while Rome Burns to the ground…

    Calilfornia’s State and Federal “elected” officials have bigger and more important issues to address, like making sure there is a 3rd bathroom in every gov’t bldg, while the victims of their policies relieve themselves on the streets.

    All while the masses are distracted with news about “wildfires” that occur near each other, 5 or 6 at a time, in high profile areas where there are no power lines or camping, while other major wind events produce zero fires.

  12. As someone living well away from California, I am somewhat interested in knowing about mistakes made there (or anywhere else) so I know what we should not do where I am living.

  13. Thanks Steven for that clear observation. It’s fitting there’s a ball pictured at the top of this story. Stay focussed and ‘don’t take your eye off the ball’. This…the deadly fires last year, up to the power shut offs this year…all of it is PG&E fault and doing. All of it. The governor has no control over their actions. Stay focused.

  14. California is a mess, but no one believes getting rid of Newsom will fix anything. There was a Typhus outbreak in LA due to the accumulated filth of decades of neglect and San Francisco now has more human feces on its poorly maintained streets than most cities in India. California has the highest rate of homelessness in the country and they recently blew billions of dollars on the failed train to nowhere program. Meanwhile California’s schools are unbelievably bad and the cost of living continues to spiral out of control.

    But… California’s dysfunction doesn’t discomfort the rich and powerful of the state, so all that ever happens is the state’s elites blame some scapegoat and carry on. But now in the dark because California can’t even keep the lights on anymore.

  15. The recall process in california has been in existence 108 years. any elected official in office. 86 recall attempts have been made. only one succeeded in 2003. Gray Davis:

    “In April 2003, Davis had a 24% approval rating and 65% disapproval rating.[42][43] Voters cited disapproval of the state’s record $34.6 billion budget shortfall, growing unemployment and dubious campaign contributor connections as well as a near-doubling of vehicle registration fees.[44]”
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gray_Davis

    PG&E instituted the public safety power shutoffs. Not Gavin newsom. It is PG&E that is in charge of maintaining the grid . Not Gavin Newsom.

    My prediction is that the recall attempt will fail to gather enough signatures to get approve.

  20. Ah, we’re now blaming the problems and the ensuing fallout from screwing up royally by a private utility company on a politician? Jesus Christ people, stay focused. It was those boneheads and their lackadaisical maintenance on towers that were built in 1929 that gets 100% of the blame here.

  21. It’s not that it’s political nonsense, it’s that it’s politics from one particular state government on the other side of the world. It isn’t even a national government.

    1. spread detergents under power lines in flammable areas. That is on top of a massive clearing effort.
    2. Forbid flying balloons, kites and drones anywhere near where they can hit power lines in flammable areas, mostly everywhere I guess.
    3. Increase fire fighting forces and detection as needed.

    It is going to cost, but nothing compared to closing down Silicon valley.

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