Lithium Ion batteries can get three times cheaper than current average prices of about $180 per kwh to about $50-60 per kwh.
This will be from improving processes going to the Tesla-Maxwell dry cell technology and with improved energy density and increasing the volume and other manufacturing efficiencies.
The global automotive lithium-ion battery market could reach about $95-100 billion per year by 2030.
A Cleantechnica analysis of the Tesla Cybertruck seems to show an implied 45% improvement in battery prices to about $100-110 per kwh by 2021.
$94 per kwh is the pricing expected in 2024 by Bloomberg New Energy Finance analysis.
InsideEVs performed a cost analysis of the new Tesla Maxwell dry cell technology which estimated a 20% improvement in battery pricing. This analysis did not take into account the lighter cars and price improvements from higher energy density from the new Maxwell batteries. Maxwell batteries should have about 30% higher energy density initially at about 385 watts per kilogram and could get another 30% when they increase to 500 watts per kilogram.
This is more details in the Tesla battery domination scenario that Nextbigfuture wrote about in June 2019. This improvement in pricing will also enable electric cars and in particular Tesla electric cars to surpass ICE (internal combustion engine) cars in price and performance.
In 3 years, Tesla will also have the Fremont factory, Nevada factory, China factory and a European factory at fully ramped production. The production levels will be 4 to 6 times higher than today.
A Future of Cheap and Plentiful Batteries Means Electrical for Most of the Non-Electrified World
The World Economic Forum has an analysis that 850 million people could get electricity with batteries and mini-grids and other electrification projects.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
It is possible that advanced battery tech might not even use lithium by 2030.
Virtually all AVs will be electric so the 2030 global automotive demand for lithium-ion batteries could be around $200 billion rather than $100 billion. Battery demand may outstrip battery manufacturing capacity and battery raw material supply.
A new Western Australian lithium mine has just been mothballed until lithium demand improves. Western Australia supplies half of World lithium and will do so for years to come.
Depends who is making the assessment and for what purpose.
When Bloomberg does a financial assessment, then no, a conservative assessment is not OK. The more accurate the better. A financial assessment that is lower than reality can be as bad as one that is higher than reality.
If you want to think of it this way, a “conservative assessment” of electric vehicle battery tech, is in practice a “overly optimistic assessment” of petrol vehicle future market share. Which is clearly going to lead to incorrect judgement.
Nothing wrong with a conservative price and adoption assessment. When the numbers get easily surpassed we’re all blown away and surprised.
94$ by 2024? There are alot of noise, that VW already paying less than 100$ for ID3
Works for me. The better and more cost effective batteries get the more uses I will find for them.
Personally, I think this website pulls China stats out of their a$$…