Supertechnology Will Define the 21st Century and Not Status Quo Trends

There are many forecasts of the world out to 2100. There is the IPCC climate change report or UN population projections. The projections assume that all current trends continue for the next 80 years.

The assumptions are that there will not be any major technological or social developments that are big enough to alter global trends.

The IPCC and UN did not predict the rise of China’s economy and later under-estimated the speed of China’s rising economy.

The current global economy is about $90 trillion. It has been growing an average of 3.1 percent annually for the next 12 years. continuing this trend GDP would rise to about $125 trillion by 2030.

To get an idea of how powerfully AI could affect economic growth, let’s assume that the last quarter’s 4.2 percent GDP growth rate in the U.S. was somehow sustained through 2030.

A McKinsey Global modeling of the impact of AI is that it could boost world GDP by 1.2% per year through 2030. This would be about double the effect of the internet and Information technology.

The first wave of robotics had a significant but smaller GDP boosting contribution.

AI could potentially deliver additional economic output of around $13 trillion by 2030, boosting global GDP by about 1.2 percent a year. This would be four times the boost of 0.3% GDP per year from the steam engine.

Nextbigfuture does not expect the growth impact of AI to stop at 2030.

Nextbigfuture also expects more powerful robotics, factory improvements and the emergence of true molecular nanotechnology to further increase the economic growth.

There will be factory or shipyard mass-produced nuclear molten salt reactors and various forms of nuclear fusion.

There is a GP-write project to reduce the cost of engineering genomes by 1000 times.

Combination gene therapy modification of adults could massively longevity, health and intelligence.

Boring Company will enable rapid infrastructure improvements via tunnels. Self-driving cars and trucks could boost the volume of commerce by 20 times with more products moved at higher speeds.

SpaceX could enable one to three-hour travel anywhere on the planet.

Tens of thousands of laser linked satellites will boost the speed of communication.

China showed that it is possible to have 9-12% GDP growth every year for over 30 years. Other countries have been in the 5-8% annual GDP growth levels.

An extra 1% of GDP growth for ten years is an extra 15%.
An extra 2% of GDP growth for ten years is an extra 27%.
An extra 3% of GDP growth for ten years is an extra 33%.
Growing at 10% per year means increasing by 2.59 times instead of 1.36 times every ten years.

It will still take some time for the various technologies to fully emerge and interact.

If the world economy accelerated by an extra 1% each year each decade, so that there was 4% per year GDP growth through the 2020s, 5% per year GDP growth through the 2030s, 6% per year GDP growth through the 2040s, and so on. There could be 10% per year GDP growth for the 2080s. A century of super-technology would mean a world economy that is 30 times larger than the 3% flat scenario.

A world with advanced AGI, super-robotics, molecular nanotechnology and abundant energy via nuclear fusion versus a world without that technology would be like Singapore ($64,000 per capita) versus Cambodia ($1500 per capita) or Vietnam ($2500 per capita).

A world with 3% annual GDP growth would have an economy of about $1000 trillion. This would be most economies with per capita income at least at current US levels and some places with triple current US income levels.

A world that accelerated to 10% annual GDP growth would have an economy of about $28000 trillion. This would be a world of per capita millionaires. How could an economy with AGI, massive space economy, molecular nanotechnology and anti-aging not have a transformed level of wealth?

Most of Asia stayed poor through to 1980. Most of Africa remains poor.

It is possible to screw things up and have a mostly stagnant future.

I think the big technology happens and there will be constant transformation. Rapid development and growth requires constant massive change. It would be a world of SpaceX instead of a world of United Launch Alliance (Lockheed-Boeing).


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