British Election Polls Predicts Conservative Majority Therefore Brexit By End of 2020

The final polling for Thursday UK general election have an 82% chance of a Conservative majority. The results will likely be known by about 9AM Eastern Standard time on Friday.

If Boris Johnson and his Conservatives win a majority then Brexit would finally happen. Johnson has promised to deliver Brexit by the end of 2020.

A party needs 326 seats for a majority in the Commons without relying on support from smaller parties. Electoral Calculus predicts 348 seats for the Conservatives. The range is 304-396.

24 thoughts on “British Election Polls Predicts Conservative Majority Therefore Brexit By End of 2020”

  1. Sadly you might have expected other parties to be the beneficiaries in such a case – but sadly not.

    The UK deserves its place on the dumpster fire of history if this is how masochistic our working population are.

    I for one hope that Scotland secedes from the union completely this time – the SNP seem very chipper about it, and Brexit will certainly add another element to a second Scoxit referendum.

    Reply
  2. How so?

    The Tories scaled back Police numbers over years.

    Such attacks are easier to perpetrate effectively with a smaller police force spread over a city as large as London – something their political rivals could have easily exploited if they were not too squeamish to do so.

    Reply
  3. Arguable – the level of disinformation and scaremongering by the Conservatives in this election was staggering, closer to US tactics than anything I’ve seen before.

    Just like with the referendum tactics only many times worse – it’s sad to see UK politics devolve to US levels of decorum.

    Reply
  4. Well, there were lies and propaganda from the Vote Leave camp. That was exposed. There was also a very fine majority, one that could easily have gone the other way had the vote been a day earlier or later. The action of the government in that instance should have been to remain in the EU until there was mandate to check again.

    Reply
  5. They voted for “not Corbyn”, not for the Tories. Ask damn near anyone in the lead up to the election and all you’d hear was “Well I don’t know who to vote for, but I really don’t like Jeremy Corbyn.” Then when asked why they don’t like him, “I don’t know, I just don’t.”

    Reply
  6. You know there’s no such thing as scanning for unlicensed TVs? And you can go to a private doctor if you want. What bullshit are you smoking?

    Reply
  7. If they join the US they will have to live by the Constitution. If they have the votes to change it afterwards that seems fair.

    Just FYI, I am also including Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Ireland as well as England (Anglosphere). Scotland seems like it wants to stick with the EU. They might regret that. The EU is a sinking boat.

    Reply
  8. But this election disproved the “they simply did not believe it could happen” theory.

    Clearly they have no excuse for not believing this time round, and they still made the same decision. Obviously there was not a huge voting block who would have voted against brexit if only they knew it might happen.

    Reply
  9. Clearly the 1830s reform act that foolishly gave the vote to the poorly educated working class, not just men of property, needs to be reversed. And later they let women vote too! Is there no end to this madness!

    Reply
  10. And add 45 million UK voters to your electoral map?

    Voters who think it’s cool to ban guns, knives and any stick weighing more than 400g. Voters who love fully nationalized health industry where it is against the law to take your child to a non-government doctor. Voters who think it’s OK to have the government scanning for unlicensed TVs.

    At least you might start driving on the proper side of the road.

    Reply
  11. This election was effectively a second referendum. The voting public knew full well that a Tory majority would lead to Brexit and, fully informed with plenty of time to mull it over that’s what they voted for. Overwhelmingly.

    Reply
  12. There shouldn’t have needed to be a second time. The issue was voted on – after thorough and vigorous debate – in 2016, and the voting public chose Brexit. For better or worse that should have been the end of it. The three years since have been a good illustration of why Brexit might be the better option.

    Reply
  13. I can’t believe they did this to themselves a second time. Once again voter turn out was just average. And once again the poorly educated and angry people from the sticks decided the future of Great Britain. They got out and voted.

    Reply
  14. It might boost the economy in the short term, but with the likely selling-off of the NHS, the people’s spending power will decrease without a serious real increase in wages. Long term, the economy will tank. This is Brexit.

    Reply
  15. It would not be stable or dependable under the current US government – say what you like about Trump but the only thing you can depend on him for is to act like an impulsive child with no consideration for future ramifications of his actions.

    His trade war has been affecting farmers in the US for months now, they require $ billions in subsidies merely to stay afloat because of it – given this much how could Britain possibly expect a consistently positive outcome from a US agreement today?

    Give it a year for him to be impeached or succeeded and possibly – but by then the British economy could be in freefall – it has already suffered significant weakening of the pound sterling since 2016, it will only get worse by the time Trump is gone.

    Reply
  16. 52% of less than 73% of the possible voting population is not all that popular.

    In Scotland there was not a single district/constituency with a majority vote for the referendum.

    Its popularity at the time was bolstered by manifest falsehoods perpetuated by the ‘Leave’ campaign that were uncovered shortly after the vote – such falsehoods that when revealed caused Farage to all but laugh at the public being deceived by them.

    I would argue that like the 2016 US election, many that did not vote simply did not believe it would happen – mainly those that had some inkling of how ridiculous such a move would be given how deeply tied th British economy, travel freedoms and even laws are tied to the EU.

    Reply
  17. “He screwed up by not making stopping Brexit his number 1 priority.”

    Because it’s a political mistake to not make undoing a popular referendum your number 1 priority?

    Reply
  18. Corbyn has been a disaster for Labour–they really should be winning this one. He screwed up by not making stopping Brexit his number 1 priority. If Johnson gets his majority then Corbyn will be forced out as Labour leader.

    Reply
  19. It would boost the UK economy rather than having a tariffs-with-everything basic WTO deal. However it will not be as good as the US-EU deal. The UK will be worse off than otherwise.

    Reply
  20. I wonder if a trade deal between the UK and the USA can boost the UK economy significantly and the US economy on the margin? Also, if Boris EU deal comes through, can the UK sign a meaningful trade deal with the USA..?

    Reply

Leave a Comment