Narrow Super Intelligences are Near

In June 2019, Tej Kohli, a London-based tech entrepreneur, invested another $100 million into Rewired, a robotics-focused venture studio.

Kohli predicts that the global AI sector will be worth $150 trillion by 2025. The total valuation of the internet is $50 trillion. This is not GDP impact. The US Internet provides a $2.1 trillion boost to GDP. It is likely that the Internet boosts the world GDP by about $6-8 trillion. Kohli is predicting something like an $18-25 trillion boost to Global GDP by 2025 because of AI. This would be about a 4% per year boost to world GDP Growth. Although it will likely not be evenly spread with more in the later years.

Price Waterhouse estimates that the Internet will boost the world GDP in 2030 by $15.7 trillion. This would be more than the current output of China and India combined. $6.6 trillion is likely to come from increased productivity and $9.1 trillion is likely to come from consumption side effects.

Humans experts are usually single narrow specialist intelligences. All humans tend to have some level of common generalist knowledge. This would typically be called common sense or shared culture.

Artificial Intelligences seem likely to have massive economic growth with narrow superintelligence. However, huge efforts will enable AI to conquer high value narrow knowledge areas or capabilities like driving.

Billions are bring spent to master driving. Full self-driving is near and it will have driving that is ten to one thousand times safer than human driving. It will involve cameras, sensors and special purpose-built computers.

The Traditional Broad Categories of AI. Narrow AI. General AI and Super AI

Wait-but-Why summarized the very broad categories of Artificial Intelligence.

1) Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI): We currently have weak AI. This is Artificial Narrow Intelligence. Various Deep Learning systems dominate and the AI specializes in narrow areas. They recognize some kinds of images. They recognize particular patterns. One system may handle breast cancer x-rays and another a different type of cancer. One system plays chess and another go. One superior system can be adapted for use with GO or with chess.

AI Caliber 2) Artificial General Intelligence (AGI): Sometimes referred to as Strong AI, or Human-Level AI, Artificial General Intelligence refers to a computer that is as smart as a human across the board—a machine that can perform any intellectual task that a human being can.

AI Caliber 3) Artificial Super Intelligence (AGI): Nick Bostrom defines superintelligence as an intellect that is much smarter than the best human brains in practically every field, including scientific creativity, general wisdom and social skills. Artificial Superintelligence ranges from a computer that’s just a little smarter than a human to one that’s trillions of times smarter—across the board.

A narrow AI that is at the top 5 to 25% of human-level for human driving is about the current level of AI self-driving. This is worth tens of billions of dollars.

A narrow AI that is slightly above human-level for driving will be worth many trillions of dollars to the world economy.

Narrow Super Intelligence or Narrow Super Capabilities alone can be worth many trillions of dollars.

There will also be value in created broad near human-level general intelligence. Master general areas of conversations beyond chatbots will be useful. Systems that are able to activate the right searches, database accesses and being able to involve the right narrow AIs and bringing humans into the loop at the right time.

Having teams of narrow AIs and humans in the cloud will get us to weak super-intelligence.

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