The Post Brexit-EU Versus the USA and China in Terms of GDP

It seems likely that the UK election will hand Boris Johnson and his Conservatives a majority. This would mean a Brexit where the UK leaves the EU by the end of 2020.

At the end of 2019:
The US economy is $21.8 trillion, the EU is at $19 trillion and China-HK-Macau is at about $14.6 trillion.
The relative sizes of the economies in 2019 : US would be 100, EU would be 87 and China would be 67.

Post Brexit at the end of 2020:
The US economy would be $22.6 trillion, the EU $16.5 trillion and China $15.9 trillion.
The relative sizes of the economies in 2019 : US would be 100, EU would be 73 and China would be 70.

Post Brexit at the end of 2024:
The US economy is $26.5 trillion, the EU $19 trillion and China is at about $21.9 trillion.
The relative sizes of the economies in 2019 : US would be 100, EU would be 72 and China would be 83.

By 2025, the EU will have declined to near where China is in 2020 relative to the USA and China will have risen to about the current EU level relative to the USA.

Projected US, China and Post-Brexit EU from 2020-2024

The EU will have a GDP of about $19.5 trillion in 2020. The UK will have a GDP of about $3 trillion in 2020. Brexit would move EU GDP to $16.5 trillion in 2020, $17.2 trillion in 2021 and $17.8 trillion in 2022, $18.4 trillion in 2023 and $19 trillion in 2024.

US GDP should be about $22.6 trillion in 2020, $23.5 trillion in 2021, $24.5 trillion in 2022, $25.5 trillion in 2023, and $26.5 trilion in 2024.

China’s GDP in 2020 will be about $15.4 trillion. Adding Hong Kong and Macau, China’s GDP in 2020 would be $15.9 trillion.
China’s GDP in 2021 will be about $16.8 trillion. Adding Hong Kong and Macau, China’s GDP in 2021 would be $17.3 trillion.
China’s GDP in 2022 will be about $18.6 trillion. Adding Hong Kong and Macau, China’s GDP in 2022 would be $19.1 trillion.
China’s GDP in 2023 will be about $19.7 trillion. Adding Hong Kong and Macau, China’s GDP in 2023 would be $20.3 trillion.
China’s GDP in 2024 will be about $21.3 trillion. Adding Hong Kong and Macau, China’s GDP in 2024 would be $21.9 trillion.

China will pass the post-Brexit EU in nominal GDP in 2021 if Hong Kong and Macau are included.

9 thoughts on “The Post Brexit-EU Versus the USA and China in Terms of GDP”

  1. Was the hope of this article that the UK wouldn’t p1ss off all three trade superpowers and realise its only credible option for anything but disaster out of Brexit was not trumping up political domestic games that would ensure China put it to the back of the queue?

    Oh dear.

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  2. The British commonwealth (UK, Canada, New Zealand, etc) used to be a trading block, but that came apart when the UK joined the EU, so it no longer exists.

    The UK may try to revive the idea once they leave the EU, but either way it will not be counted as part of the EU.

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  3. I adjusted the IMF US projections with the latest US quarterly numbers. Assuming Phase 1 of the US -China trade deal gets signed and USMCA (US-Canada-Mexico) deal then US GDP growth in 2020 will be 3-3.5%. US economy is getting pumped up with whatever is under political control because incumbant wants to get re-elected.

    Brexit will also hit exchange rates for Euro and pound. Although a lot of that has been factored in. UK will cut new trade deals with US and others.

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  4. the uk and eu already were separate economies… that’s called not giving up pound and converting to euros… I worked once for UK company in Germany… the only thing it taught me was how people from UK cheat German government out of 50% income taxes and pay nothing by using a tax shelter in jersey. And that was just because the company in UK didn’t want to give tax money to Germany… because they don’t want them to have it… even though I lived And worked in Germany… they made me keep 70% of my income in pounds and I had barely nothing to live on in germany… that was in the year 2005.

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