2020 Emergency Coronovirus Treatment Will Start in 3 Months Versus 2 Years for SARS in 2003

In 2003 it took 20 Months for the first experimental treatment for newly identified virus but in 2020 it appears it will take 3 months for the first treatments against the Wuhan Coronavirus.

China has already published the genome sequence of the Wuhan Coronavirus and experimental vaccines should be in human testing by April, 2020.

A number of potential experimental vaccines will be available to use against the new SARS-like coronavirus that is spreading in China and beyond.

Three months from gene sequence to initial human testing would be the fastest the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases within NIH agency has ever developed a vaccine for a new disease.

Chinese scientists were able to quickly identify the genetic sequence of the new coronavirus and officials posted it publicly within a few days. On January 24, 2020, the US CDC posted in GenBank the full genome of the 2019-nCoV virus detected in the first U.S. patient from Washington state.

CDC has developed a real-time Reverse Transcription-Polymerase Chain Reaction (rRT-PCR) test that can diagnose 2019-nCoV in respiratory and serum samples from clinical specimens.

In the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak, it took U.S. scientists 20 months to go from genetic sequence to the first phase of human trials.

The 2019-nCoV infection caused clusters of severe respiratory illness similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and was associated with ICU admission and high mortality.

Moderna and mRNA Rapid Treatment

U.S. biotech Moderna Inc specializes in vaccines based on ribonucleic acid (RNA) – a chemical messenger that contains instructions for making protein. Moderna is partnering with the NIH.

Moderna, Inc., (Nasdaq: MRNA) a clinical stage biotechnology company pioneering messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines to create a new generation of transformative medicines for patients, and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), announced a new collaboration to develop an mRNA vaccine against the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).

Over the past four years Moderna has had six positive Phase 1 clinical readouts in its prophylactic vaccines modality and moved two additional programs into development. Moderna’s technology platform, fully integrated manufacturing site and development experience, combined with a multi-year relationship with the NIH, including exploring ways to respond to public health threats, allows for the rapid identification and advancement of a vaccine candidate against 2019-nCoV.

Messenger ribonucleuc acid (mRNA) medicines are sets of instructions. And these instructions direct cells in the body to make proteins to prevent or fight disease.

Moderna has created an mRNA technology platform that functions very much like an operating system on a computer. It is designed so that it can plug and play interchangeably with different programs. In our case, the “program” or “app” is our mRNA drug – the unique mRNA sequence that codes for a protein.

13 thoughts on “2020 Emergency Coronovirus Treatment Will Start in 3 Months Versus 2 Years for SARS in 2003”

  1. Sources inside China are reporting that this showed up about 1 month ago and, typical to dictatorial regimes, China covered up the issue. China is under reporting the number of deaths and cases by at least double; most likely more. Doctors were forbidden from telling people what they had. Patients were told to go home and wear a mask. The families of people who died early on were told to have the bodies cremated ASAP. No investigation into how they died. They don’t show up in official numbers because they don’t exist. Massive public feasts (100,000 people) were held to show the people nothing was wrong. China should be held to account for this. The communist party is only concerned with maintaining power, damn the rest of the world.

  2. Add that we can’t really be confident of statistics like this coming out of China. They’re not the most transparent society, after all; They’re perfectly capable of feeding the world fake statistics for PR purposes.

    They’re certainly not acting like it’s no big deal.

  3. 10 day typical delay between infection and symptoms
    airborne, human-human transmission
    can survive on surfaces for days, and can infect through touching surface then eyes
    asymptomatic infectiousness in days before symptoms start

    Paper from Jan. 24: “Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions”, relying on official numbers, predicts 250,000 cases by Feb. 4, almost all in Wuhan
    – Also estimates basic reproduction number R_0 at nearly 4, vs. Spanish Flu at less than 2,
    – and that only 5.1% of cases identified
    Therefore up to 3/4 of transmission will have to be blocked to halt growth of the epidemic
    Estimates of effectiveness of quarantine in the paper indicate that the epidemic will not be contained

    If R_0 is over 2, incubation is often over 10 days, asymptomatic individuals are infectious for days and there is airborne transmission, and
    given the existing spread of the virus to dozens of cities, and about 20 countries, the recent dispersal of 5M from Wuhan for the new year and untold millions passing through China’s main rail hub, then

    The only question is the lethality, currently estimated at 1%-10%. Given so many infections, and the nature of this virus, the virus will mutate rapidly, and some of these will likely be more lethal, or lethal to different demographics, as happened with the Spanish Flu.

    In any event the response is going to clobber the world economy.

  4. Agree, just to add what I wrote to Yawn that it all depends whether 2019-nCov starts to kill normally healthy people.

  5. define “bad” flu strain?
    The Spanish Flu (H1N1) killed about 10% of those infected. 2019-nCov doesn’t seem to have the same mortality (about 2%, versus 10% for SARS and 35% for MERS) but know ones yet. The “regular” flu kills about 0.1%.

    What is the most important is who dies from this. The Spanish Flu killed healthy. “Normal” flu kills (for the most part) those with very weakened immune systems, and that also killed the SARS and MERS victims.

    If 2019-nCov starts killing normally healthy people, then all bets are off.

  6. There are many different strains of flu viruses. Those statistics probably mix the milder and more nasty strains. For example, H5N1 (2004 bird flu) had a death rate around 60%.
    (edit: For comparison, Ebola has an average death rate of 50%, but can go as high as 90%, and is much more contagious.)

  7. There were ~9.3 million cases of flu last year, that killed around 12,000 people. Or a percentage death rate of around .1%.
    There have been 2774 cases of this coronavirus, with 80 deaths, or a death rate of around 2%.
    Plus, so far since the outbreak has started, only 54 people have recovered – so the chance of having serious complications from this strain is a lot greater than garden-variety flu.
    Also, it looks like this variety of coronovirus is spreadable when the infected is asymptomatic so it is extra difficult to stop.
    Finally, there is always the chance that this strain will mutate to become more deadly.
    So, yeah I’d say this is considerably worse.

  8. Beat me to it. Is this another much ado about nothing? I’m fairly sure the common cold kills more people daily than this virus has killed too date.

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