Global Middle Class Passing 4 Billion in 2020

The global middle class is already the largest segment of demand in the global economy and the global middle class will pass 4 billion people by end 2020 and 5.3 billion people by 2030.

The global middle class are households spending $11-110 per day per person in 2011 purchasing power parity, or PPP.

The global middle class is growing by 120 to 160 million people every year. The vulnerable group who are between the extremely poor ($1.90 per day 2011 PPP) and the global middle class. The number in the vulnerable are shrinking by 80-90 million each year.

The above is a mid-2019 distribution of the number of people at the range of daily spending levels. It can been seen that if the vulnerable and poor people doubled their income levels that over half would reach the global middle class levels. Two doublings of the income of the poor and vulnerable would have most of those people above the minimum global middle-class level. If there is 3% per year income growth then the rule of 72 indicates that they will double their income in 24 years. If there is 6% per year income growth then they will double their income in 12 years

World population is increasing by 70-82 million each year from 2020 to 2030. The world population will by 7.8 billion in 2020.

The world urban population is 4.4 billion and is 56% of the world population. The global middle class has nearly a 90% overlap with the population in cities.

The middle class in 2030 will have 1.3 billion more people, while the vulnerable group will have 900 million fewer people. Trends for the poor and the rich and more modest, at -150 million people and +100 million, respectively.

By our calculations, the middle-class markets in China and India in 2030 will account for $14.1 trillion and $12.3 trillion, respectively, comparable in size to a U.S. middle-class market at that time of $15.9 trillion.

The global middle-class growth is mostly the growing wealth of the nearly 5 billion people in Asia. It is people in China, India and southeast asia. Nearly 90 percent of the next billion people entering the global middle class will live in Asia.

The number of rich and global middle class passed the number of poor and vulnerable in September 2018.

By 2030 there will be about 3.3-3.5 billion Asians in the global middle class. A large part of the remainder in Asia will move up to global middle class by 2040.

The Asian global middle class will be around 4.5 billion by 2040. The world will have about 9.2 billion people in 2040 and Asia will have 5.2 billion. The global middle class will be around 7-8 billion by 2040.

Global middle-class wealth is about the average wealth per household in Pakistan or Nicaragua today.


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