Perspective on World War 3 and the Draft

Kids in Grade 6 are freaking out about the potential for World War 3. Kids in Grade 9 are freaking out about a possible draft.

I was told by my kids that these issues were raised by other kids in school. I have straightened out my children but I just want to tell people in general that World War 3 and the US draft will obviously not happen.

A World War 3 situation involving the USA would require some opposing nations to be under the delusion that they could win such a conflict.

A draft will not happen because the US can beat Iran with just more economic sanctions and any military action can be performed with less than 10% of existing US forces.

The only real World War 3 threats to the USA is the nuclear weapons of Russia (a few thousand nuclear weapons) and the nuclear weapons of China (about 150 nukes.) Russia and China could not stand up to the US military in a conventional war. However, Russia and China would make damage the US so that it would not be worth it for the US to attack Russia or China.

Iran does not have a military that is significant compared to the US military. Iran’s leadership has no delusion that they could win any actual World War. Iran’s military is pathetic. The Iranian Air Force has not changed since 1979 (other than losing half their force in the war with Iran).

Iran currently has about 40 F-14 remaining with two of them having been upgraded to F-14AM around 24 Fully Mission Capable and the other 20 Partially Mission Capable. They also have about MiG-29 in active service.

There have a small assortment of even older or even more inferior planes. The US has over 2000 combat jet fighters that are all newer and more capable.

The 1986 movie Top Gun involved flying F-14A. The movie is 33 years old. The planes were already about ten years old at the time of filming.

Iran fought eight-year war (1980-1987) with Iraq that ended in a stalemate.

The war was partway between World War 1 and World War 2. The World War 1 tactics used, including large-scale trench warfare with barbed wire stretched across trenches, manned machine-gun posts, bayonet charges, human wave attacks across a no man’s land. Iraq used a lot of chemical weapons such as sulfur mustard against Iranian troops, civilians, and Kurds.

Iran does not have nuclear weapons yet but wants them.

Iranian human wave attacks would not work against US forces.

Iran has the ability for regional attacks using militia and terrorist forces in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq.

Iran has missiles that have some regional range but they are inaccurate and weak.

The US broke the Iraqi army in about two weeks of fighting. The only reason that the US ended up having significant losses and problems in Iraq was by sticking around to occupy the broken country.

This is the lesson from the Iraq war. Do not use your military to wreck a country so that you are “responsible” for trying to run it after. The US rule of you broke it… you bought it. Financial sanctions can wreck a country but there is no “responsibility” for any support afterward. There would be the choice to sell after sanctions but there would be no obligation.

The US has used financial sanctions to reduce Iran’s oil exports from 3 million barrels per day down to about 400,000 barrels per day. The US can cut off any Iranian exports by saying that any country that trades with Iran will be banned from trading with the USA. The US has stopped short of tightening the sanctions against Iran quite to that level.

The US can also destroy Iranian oil refineries. The US has threatened to destroy the three largest Iranian oil refineries.

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