Nextbigfuture has been saying that Tesla is a huge winner even before the recent surge in its stock price. This article is mostly from a newsletter that I sent out yesterday.
Tesla is clearly on track for a successful ramp of China production and is expanding the Shanghai Factory.
Ramping China production and slightly increasing US production alone should give Tesla a very profitable 620,000-750,000 cars in 2020. They increased their profit margin in the third quarter of 2019 and this profit margin should increase in 2020 with more China produced cars.
My expectation of added production lines in China would see the higher production numbers.
NOTE: I own Tesla shares.
Production ramping factories in US, China and in Europe and the launch of the Model Y, Semi and then the Cybertruck will continue to drive demand for all capacity that is built.
In 2021 and later, the Tesla story will shift more and more to better batteries and self-driving. Tesla has the best batteries and battery-related systems for cars. Tesla bought Maxwell Technologies which will enable Tesla to make longer range cars and to lower the cost of their batteries.
There is also the power storage, solar roof, insurance and service and software businesses.
Tesla and SpaceX synergy will also become huge.
Flat phased array radar receivers cost about $20000-50,000 but the technology is usually based on product that can be built in older flat-panel TV factories. This means the cost could go down to $100-200 per flat receiver. The issue has been the volume of tens to hundreds of thousands of units per year. Tesla will be able provide the demand for satellite receivers in cars, semis and houses.
Vertical integrated products and services will enable to Tesla and SpaceX to launch services and products that have been held back because of the inability to scale.
Besides the fantastic businesses that Tesla and SpaceX already have they will be boosting each other to huge levels by scaling new products and services with huge potential.
Tesla should go up 20 times or more as it becomes one of the trillion-dollar companies alongside Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Google.