Another financial analyst has published that Tesla will be able to ramp to huge sales levels in China. Piper analyst Alexander Potter said that if Tesla’s Model 3 market share in the United States can be replicated in China (and for the Model Y) then Tesla’s annual volume in China alone would eventually exceed 650k units.
In December, 2019, Nextbigfuture noted and agreed with a statement that China car sales for BMW and Mercedes are double their US Car sales. Doubling US sales volume for premium cars would enable Tesla to sell 700,000 to 1 million model 3s each year and around 2 million model Ys.
Tesla grabbing pickup Truck and large SUV market share with Cybertruck and Cybertruck SUV and van variants would enable sales of another 3+ million.
Tesla will be able ramp more factories China, Asia, United States and Europe.
Tesla should still be able to grow 50-80% per year with more factories and expanded factories and new vehicles.
2019 367000 2020 700000 2021 1100000 2022 1600000 2023 2500000 2024 3200000 2025 5000000 2026 7000000 2027 9000000
Tesla has a clear path to 5 million per year sales by 2025 and over 10 million by 2028.
NOTE : Writer Brian Wang of Nextbigfuture is a shareholder in Tesla
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
The same basic design with some panel changes at the rear is a standard luxury 4WD wagon which are all over the roads in the big Chinese cities.
You have to keep in mind that the growth is exponential, not linear. This article may be a little conservative in it’s prediction.
pickup trucks (cybertruck etc.) or only popular in north america. the car market in china is slowing so i cant be too optimistic with these predictions.
yeah take a short position, see what happens
You are far to optimistic. Tesla will of course continue to grow, but not that fast.
You realize Ford sold under 2.5 million vehicles last year, and you think Tesla will be bigger then Ford in ~3 years, and bigger then GM just ~4 years after that?!
Tesla is sitting good, but every year it’s competition is going to get better & better as well.
Tesla only delivered 159k Model 3s in the USA in 2019. The rest were sent to other countries.