Ultracheap Satellites and the Multi-trillion SpaceX Future

SpaceX Starlink satellites already cost less than $500,000 each and could reach $250,000 or less. Starlink satellites could beat regular cellphone towers and internet fiber. The SpaceX Starlink satellites have laser communication. The lasers are 40% faster in a vacuum than traveling through fiber.

Cellphone towers cost about $150,000 to build and have a lease cost of about $45,000 per year to landowners. SpaceX has plans filed with the FCC to scale up to over 42,000 Starlink satellites. In 2020, the market for cellphone tower construction is estimated at about $25 billion globally. The total installed base of cellphone towers is about 5 million towers.

In the 2030s, it could be possible for SpaceX Starlink to completely replace most of the ground-based internet and telecommunication infrastructure.

SpaceX could eventually dominate global telecommunications. An estimate of the value of this domination would be over 1 billion customers with $600 per year in revenue. This could be combined with high margins and a large PE multiple for a multi-trillion valuation for SpaceX.