Iran has officially reported 26 deaths from Coronavirus while the Chinese province with the second most coronavirus deaths is Henan with 20. There were unofficial reports yesterday that Iran had 50 coronavirus deaths. Iran has 245 cases and 26 official deaths.
South Korea has 1766 cases and 13 deaths. Italy has 528 cases and 14 deaths.
China may have been able to lockdown the epicenter at Hubei province to reduce spread to other provinces better than the international lockdown of other countries.
Statistics are still inaccurate but COVID-19 Coronavirus may have a fatality rate of 0.2 – 0.5. The statistics of the fatality in China is about 2.5% but this is only for the people who needed and received hospitalization and others that were easily identified when tracing infection. There are likely 5-10 times as many people with mild cases or have no symptoms while infected.
The flu typically has a fatality rate of 0.1%. 600 million can get the flu but 350,000 to 650,000 people die each year. However, the hospitalization care for COVID-19 coronavirus seems more intense than for flu. The ratio of hospitalization to deaths from COVID-19 are in the range of the hospitalization vs deaths for flu. However, the level of quarantine needed and care to prevent spread in the hospital is higher for COVID-19 is higher.
Both seem to have hospitalization rates that are 10-20 times higher than the deaths.
The strain on the medical systems and medical staff seems to be about ten times higher for COVID-19 versus the medical system strain from the flu.
The weakness of the quarantine controls and medical systems of some countries would be a double impact. The weaker system countries would have more spread with less effective quarantine and they would not be able to provide the care needed to prevent the very sick from dying. This would mean that China was able to save 78,500 hospitalization cases with 2750 deaths, a country like Iran might have the same hospitalizations but 8,000 to 15,000 deaths because of insufficient intensive care capacity. Currently Iran is at 11% official deaths of official cases.
Mandatory Credit: Photo by CHINE NOUVELLE/SIPA/Shutterstock (10547840f)
Aerial photo taken on shows the interior of ‘Wuhan Livingroom’, which is converted into a hospital to receive patients infected with the novel coronavirus, in Wuhan, central China’s Hubei Province.
Coronavirus outbreak, China – 04 Feb 2020
Wuhan plans to convert three existing venues, including a gymnasium and an exhibition center, into hospitals to receive patients infected with the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), the headquarters for the epidemic control said late Monday.
The Hongshan Gymnasium, Wuhan International Conference and Exhibition Center and a cultural building complex dubbed ‘Wuhan Livingroom’ will be turned into hospitals with a total of 3,400 beds, according to the headquarters.
The sites, located in the districts of Jianghan, Wuchang and Dongxihu, will take in patients with mild symptoms caused by the coronavirus.
The hospitals will serve as temporary medical sites with functions of emergency treatment and clinical testing.
Conversion work started late Monday, and by Tuesday morning, hundreds of beds have been in place.
SOURCES- John Hopkins, US CDC Flu Stats
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
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