Large Coronavirus Outbreaks in Iran, South Korea and Italy

21 thoughts on “Large Coronavirus Outbreaks in Iran, South Korea and Italy”

1. And people aren’t stupid. They can probably predict patient executions ahead of time based on the general standard of behaviour. So nobody goes to the hospital in the first place.

2. It became its own article, so Brian thwarted it.

3. infections usually become milder and less symptomatic as they spread across the population. This is an evolutionary adaptations to be less dangerous to your host. Therefore, the more generations/hops the virus does, the less deadly it will be. The first few months could be very brutal, though…

4. Executing patients would be counter-productive in the long run, as future patients would become aware of this poor standard of care, and simply not go to the hospital, thereby spreading the virus and performing “self-executions.”

6. True. But I also perceive another less nefarious plausible pathway for a government funded lab, militarily run, to be researching this kind synthetic coronavirus bug.  

   Production of a vaccine. 

   Turns out that the ‘unhatched, but fertilized chicken egg’ approach at making vaccines is very, very good at creating gobs of multiplying virii, which can be extracted, then “denatured”, leaving them technically infectious, but also substantially attenuated in replication ability. Heat, acids, enzymes, combinations therein, do the trick.  

   If I was a nefarious military planner, I might want to create a virus that could really wreak havoc on the rest of the world, but which ‘we’ have humungous stockpiles of the vaccine, already having been administered to the public thru a non-optional national vaccination program.  When-and-if-needed, the frankenvirus could be unleashed on one’s enemies, stirring the chaos pot furiously.  

   I tell you — I’ve long worried about the ethics of doing these kinds of intentional franken-mutations. The results … can be … bad.

   ⋅-⋅-⋅ Just saying, ⋅-⋅-⋅
   ⋅-=≡ GoatGuy ✓ ≡=-⋅

7. I’ve upvoted this excellent link twice now and both times it got reset.

   Corona-chan, is that you controlling the internet too?

8. Iran is still in a relatively good state.
   There are likely countries out there with even worst health care system that still don’t know the severity of the infection in their midst.

9. There is some good news. No longer present in 9 countries that had infections. Everyone in those countries who had it is either listed as recovered or dead. No active cases.
   Vietnam
   France
   India
   Russia
   Nepal
   Cambodia
   Belgium
   Finland
   Sri Lanka

10. If this is a military bioweapon it is a very badly designed one.
    The LAST thing you want in your bioweapon is that it spreads over the border and infects your population too. But that seems to be the very thing this disease is very good at.

    Actual bioweapon programs seem to concentrate on things like Anthrax, which can be spread in a local area, will render that area extremely hazardous, but is not going to move to new (unpredictable) locations.

11. As long as your neighbours don’t resort to cannibalism to exploit that food supply.

12. Wow, being a hermit is really paying off now. Good thing I have a months supply of food around my midsection.

13. This data maps with the anecdotes from people at work who orginate from Wuhan and are in touch with friends/family in China especially on social media. Almost all deaths are people 65+.
    It seems to enter the lung cells via the ACE2 receptor which is elevated in smokers, ex-smokers, and is elevated as you age.
    EDIT: Something like 50% of Chinese males smoke and only like 5% of Chinese females smoke so that is the likely gender disparity in fatalities./EDIT
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

14. Lots of different opinions, from Brian to all the posters, to the media, to scientific pundits. Lots.

    I’m seeing a virus highly resistant to environmental degradation: it infects by aerosols (coughing droplets). It passes on suraces (hand-to-mouth/nose/eyes).  It passes on fecal routes (sanitation, bits, aerosols…). It may well transinfect by even more novel and insidious routes.  

    And this virus has a fairly long “now showing with a fever near you” gestation. The persons around you, who will show (or worse, never quite show) coronavirus infection in a couple of weeks, are carriers and viral payload agents well before then.  Very bad, because you cannot detect that which isn’t showing itself. 

    So far, the Chinese have taken fairly draconian measures to lock down their metropolitan populations. It is really not clear whether people are starving or since it is winter, freezing to death. They well could be, since almost all the avenues of commerce are closed to them.  

    Other countries have been taking similarly draconian measures, but on a micro-scale.  
    WHO can say how they’re being paid for? “CDCs” aren’t cheap. Money must come from somewhere.
    ________________________________________

    My take: Coronavirus — plausibly a military bio-weapon — has insidious infection pathway characteristics.  

    I don’t think “for a minute” that it is peaking, or even coming close to containment.

    Not at all.

    ⋅-⋅-⋅ Just saying, ⋅-⋅-⋅
    ⋅-=≡ GoatGuy ✓ ≡=-⋅

15. Would be interesting to know the average age of those who are dying.

16. I would like to believe nations are starting to take it seriously, and will soon bring this under control. It sounds like SKorea and Italy are now taking appropriate precautions. Unfortunately it’ll take days before new cases drop off (if they aren’t unlucky) and maybe weeks before new deaths are low.

    Meanwhile there’s another cluster in the middle east that may be radiating from Iran. Iran might seem an odd place for the disease to spread to, but China considers Iran an ‘anchor’ for its One Belt One Road economic plan, so I guess there may have been a fair amount of China-Iran traffic. However I expect they will get it under control.

    Southern Africa also has a fair amount of contact with China – but the virus may not spread as well in hot areas (it’s been summer in Africa of course), which may have made it a safer region so far. But they’re heading into their fall rainy season, so that may be the next big story, just as the North gets things under control.

17. “Large Coronavirus Outbreaks in Iran, South Korea and Italy”

    Is this like a Godzilla sized virus?

18. Asymptomatic carriers plus reinfection after recovery means potential for stubborn and stealthy outbreaks. Some countries will not be able to constrain the spread and endanger all neighbors. If so a national quarantine might be necessary.

19. Iran stands out with a 17% death rate (based on the reported numbers), much higher than the usual 2-3% so far. This suggests several possibilities:
    1) Very bad medical care – probably.
    2) Mostly elderly or otherwise immunocompromised patients – who knows. With poverty and poor prior medical care, maybe likely.
    3) Much higher number of cases than reported – likely.
    4) More deadly strain – less likely, but very bad if true.

    They do have, supposedly, 25 recoveries, so doesn’t look like they’re executing patients, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if they are.

    Meanwhile, China seems to be settling down. Fewer new cases, and the number of recoveries is gradually climbing. It’s now over 35%. Also, many of the countries with less than 10 cases are with zero active cases at the moment, including India.

20. Looks very bad, the Italian outbreak is now fast spreading all around Spain (Barcelona, Madrid, Valencia and Canaries just today).

21. South Korea is doing well. Rapid testing, closing their city and their daily infected count is dropping.

    Italy? We will see how things go, too early to tell.

    Iran? Well its a mess.

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