Are You Safe 14 Days Without Symptoms After a COVID-19 Exposure?

The latest information on incubation periods for coronavirus COVID 19 are a range of 2 to 14 days for 99% of cases. Usually no symptoms occur until 2.5 days after infection.

You have a 1% chance of still developing coronavirus after 14 days without symptoms and about a 0.01% chance of developing serious coronavirus after 14 days. However, there is the 1% chance that you do have it and would still be contagious to other people. Definitely avoid getting within ten feet of anyone over 70. The elderly just need to have only essential visits.

We have to assume that 1% or more of the people walking around North America or anywhere in the world has an infection.
* everyone has to clean hands every hour
* minimize contact within 6 feet in general.
* try to stay in separate rooms in a house as much as possible
* clean door knobs, railings, light switches phones
* avoid sharing cups, bowls etc… that are not thoroughly washed.

The median incubation period was estimated to be 5.1 days (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.8 days), and 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days) of infection.

These estimates imply that, under conservative assumptions, 101 out of every 10 000 cases (99th percentile, 482) will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring or quarantine.

Looking only who gets very sick with coronavirus, then using exposures designated as high risk and a 7-day monitoring period, the estimate for missed (serious) cases was 21.2 per 10,000. After 14 days, the estimated number of missed high-risk cases was 1 per 10,000 patients.

SOURCES – CDC Self-isolation, Annals of Internal Medicine – The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application March 10, 2020,
Written By Brian Wang,