Better Projections of the Coronavirus Numbers and Shelter in Place

San Francisco has ordered everyone to shelter in place starting at Midnight. This will spread as we follow what Wuhan did. This is good in that it is our best shot at mitigating COVID-19 but bad in that activity (business- everything) is frozen.

There are some better numbers on COVID-19 projections. has projections that show how we go from today’s official count numbers to a possible flattened spread. Use the data explorer to model where this will be 2 weeks or more. What we want to see is bending the spread curve like China and South Korea. There is still some hope for places where aggressive Taiwan style containment is possible.

Why contain and why use shelter in place? Guards and security to enforce quarantine and shelter in place out number ICU beds and ventilation specialists by 1000 to 10,000 times. The limiting factor on reactive medical response is ICU beds and ventilation specialists.

More People for Shelter in Place and Contact Tracing Than ICU Beds

All countries have the people to work containment and shelter in place. You send cars with loudspeakers telling people to try to stay in and to clean hands once an hour and to wipe surfaces. You will show how much you love friends and family by seeing them after this is over. Even in homes try to each limit movement to individual areas of the house. After two weeks, your house can assume people in the house are all in the same hopefully non-infected situation.

The 327 million people of the USA have 160,000 ventilators and 9000 in CDC storage. The USA has enough ventilator specialists for 135,000 ventilations at any one time. Argentina (40 million) has maybe 4000 total hospital beds and maybe a few hundred ICU beds.

South Korea and China have flattened the spread. Italy has not yet.

A rule of thumb for coronavirus deaths to actual case (many undetected) is to multiply by 800. However, this is country and culture-dependent. Germany has many cases but few deaths. Germans tend to not visit their grandparents or live with them, but Italy does have multiple generations together. This makes Italy more vulnerable because the young and middle-aged infect the elderly.

Written By Brian Wang,

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