Better Projections of the Coronavirus Numbers and Shelter in Place

San Francisco has ordered everyone to shelter in place starting at Midnight. This will spread as we follow what Wuhan did. This is good in that it is our best shot at mitigating COVID-19 but bad in that activity (business- everything) is frozen.

There are some better numbers on COVID-19 projections. has projections that show how we go from today’s official count numbers to a possible flattened spread. Use the data explorer to model where this will be 2 weeks or more. What we want to see is bending the spread curve like China and South Korea. There is still some hope for places where aggressive Taiwan style containment is possible.

Why contain and why use shelter in place? Guards and security to enforce quarantine and shelter in place out number ICU beds and ventilation specialists by 1000 to 10,000 times. The limiting factor on reactive medical response is ICU beds and ventilation specialists.

More People for Shelter in Place and Contact Tracing Than ICU Beds

All countries have the people to work containment and shelter in place. You send cars with loudspeakers telling people to try to stay in and to clean hands once an hour and to wipe surfaces. You will show how much you love friends and family by seeing them after this is over. Even in homes try to each limit movement to individual areas of the house. After two weeks, your house can assume people in the house are all in the same hopefully non-infected situation.

The 327 million people of the USA have 160,000 ventilators and 9000 in CDC storage. The USA has enough ventilator specialists for 135,000 ventilations at any one time. Argentina (40 million) has maybe 4000 total hospital beds and maybe a few hundred ICU beds.

South Korea and China have flattened the spread. Italy has not yet.

A rule of thumb for coronavirus deaths to actual case (many undetected) is to multiply by 800. However, this is country and culture-dependent. Germany has many cases but few deaths. Germans tend to not visit their grandparents or live with them, but Italy does have multiple generations together. This makes Italy more vulnerable because the young and middle-aged infect the elderly.

Written By Brian Wang,

29 thoughts on “Better Projections of the Coronavirus Numbers and Shelter in Place”

  1. I would hate to be you right now. Preparing people for burial that have died from an highly infectious disease must be terrifying. Wish you luck. Your money will be well earned.

  2. We went socialist when we decided to have government, churches and families. If you provide any services without the profit motive you are a socialist. Socialist/Capitalist aren’t binary. It is a spectrum. 40+% of GDP is generated by the various levels of government. We can argue about what the percentage should be but to say we aren’t in anyway socialist is just incorrect.

  3. Quite right. Three additional million people dead is nothing to be upset about. The fact that almost every extended family will lose someone in the next three months and won’t even be able to have a wake and proper funeral won’t affect anyone.

    Me, a bit more familiar with family members dying recently say the scars will take a while to heal.

  4. And regarding the social nets: they’re heavily taken advantage of by some of our fellow citizens that in addition to stealing and cheating whenever they can, don’t pay a dime in taxes (for example by declaring their homes as “worship places” and so getting exempt from the property taxes) and then you see them coming in their BMWs & Audis to collect their well deserved social benefits.
    I was one wrong move away from soiling myself due to the pain from a herniated disc, had to drag my ass through several “universal healthcare” facilities and I find myself next to one of those guys that – mind you – was looking for the doctor in charge with the ill health pensions. You have no idea how many people bribed the doctors to get one of those ill health pensions.
    I must mention that I had to pay the full price for the MRI because I couldn’t wait several weeks for my turn to come had I chosen the state-provided insurance plan.
    On another occasion I was hospitalized for another illness next to one of those guys. An otherwise fine gentleman, we talked a lot and I just want to relay to you at least one of the interesting stories he told me: in exchange for one of those benefits that they collect, he must provide some community service. And so he goes over to the mayor’s office & someone sends him to sweep some street. And our guy goes “I’m on it, boss!” and then he just heads home, to the pub or wherever.
    Best regards from the real life!

  5. So you’re saying… That I behave like an animal?
    Maybe when this crazy stuff is over you come over and tour some of our universal healthcare facilities. And even then you won’t get the whole picture, foreigners don’t get the whole experience, you know…

  6. There’s nothing wrong with universal healthcare and a few social nets. No one should have to starve. We’re not animals. Stop behaving as such.

  7. On a slightly more serious note, there was a guy that was hospitalized supposedly because he thought eating toilet paper would cure corona (and I guess he ate some).

  8. Exponentials start slow, then accelerate very quickly. And US had a slow response in the beginning. Actually, I agree – Trump is an idiot, but not for his current response.

    There is an account of someone from Italy, where he describes the rapid unfolding of events there over the past 3 weeks, peoples denial in the early stages, etc. It’s quoted in (along with some responses and commentary). You should read it.

  9. And unfortunatelly there’s a good chance it will along with the rest of the world. I live in a former commie country – so we should know better – and aside from the old guys’ nostalgia the youth have nothing against some “capitalist” country (say, Japan) basically nationalising a large portion of it’s economy. “If it’s for the good of the ppl then I’ve nothing against it”, that’s the theme. Plus the handouts, those are highly popular. Plus people rationalising whatever restriction the state imposes on us. Seems like a trend all over Europe.

  10. What a witty and completely intelligent retort. Do you feel owned, Rick C.? You should feel owned by such a witty and completely intelligent retort…

  11. South Korea has done pretty fine containing a very serious outbreak without hysterics and limitation of liberties.

    I say this with a lot of envy, as an Spaniard. My own country is a huge mess, we are now on a national-wide quarantine and the biggest expansion rate of the virus.

  12. Yes, I’ve said this several times before, more people will die from the crazy ass panic than the virus itself.

    People are idiots alright. They all want to live out a disaster movie/zombie apocalypse in real life.

  13. If you are sick, don’t be a dick! Shelter in place. If you are in a high risk group, assume you will die if exposed and act accordingly. If you interact with people in a high risk group, assume you have it and will give it to the person, and act accordingly. That will solve a lot more than panicking.

  14. The manic depressive panic mode is going to cause real harm; more than the virus. People are generally idiots. Take time to read and understand the risks, and how to mitigate them. No, no, can’t do that. Oprah is on, but I have time to get some TP from Costco.

  15. This is a double-edged sword. There was probably never any coming out of this with society intact WITHOUT there being a double-edged sword scenario. That’s said, I’m down for it, if it helps. Is it crappy? Hell yeah. But, it could do some good for a while.

    I think people should stop panic-buying toilet paper and guns. It’s literally hilarious [to me, as I never remove my cynical hat] that there are folks out there who think society is going to fall apart over this. To me, that’s a joke. On the bright side, if ya run out of Count Chocula, you can go vegan and eat all that toilet paper ya didn’t need, because it’s made from trees! Plenty of fiber, biodegradable, the ultimate plant-based cuisine!

  16. The virus lasts a long time depending on the material it is on. You could have tracked the virus in days prior and then touched where it had been deposited and infected yourself when you touched your face.

  17. We went from it ‘not being a problem’ on Tuesday, March 10th to ‘ no gatherings larger than 10 people and ‘it may trigger a recession’ today. The man is an idiot.

  18. From the stats I’ve seen, the vast majority of your customers and workers will have little to no symptoms, let alone die from it.

  19. Just to note that it would be bad for your business if your customers and workers get sick and die.

  20. Some more of it, I dont have all the data for all the days (Japan,..) And these are the official numbers, we dont know the actual ones – much more infected.

  21. How does this matter. You are home, no one in or out, and you need to wash your hands every hour?
    There is a lot of misleading information …

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