California Shelters in Place and Maybe the Whole USA Next Week

California Governor Newsom has placed a shelter in place (stay at home) order for the entire state.

If there was no mitigation like the shelter in place then California was heading to 25 million infections.

The Washington Times reports that President Trump is considering grounding planes and a nationwide shelter in place next week if the models are still showing a trend to 5+ million cases in 2 months. There would not be a very accurate model of the actual cases. I presume they would be using a proxy related to how many hospitalizations and the growth in hospitalization. I think the 5 million cases would be 250,000 hospitalizations which means the medical system would be overwhelmed.

It clearly would have been a LOT better if the health system had been as on the ball as Taiwan or Vietnam. We will need to transition to targeted shelter in place, and widespread temperature monitoring and health checks and other hygiene measures like hourly hand cleaning.

We have to scale and harden the medical system in weeks and get the drugs to prevent most deaths.

SOURCES- California Government, The Hill, Washington Examiner
Written by Brian Wang,

33 thoughts on “California Shelters in Place and Maybe the Whole USA Next Week”

  1. I had actually wondered why UV was not mentioned in anything I had seen. It is probably too late, however, as the virus particles will be everywhere soon, and killing 99.999% of the ones that get to you won’t save you. Not saying it won’t help at all, but would have to be literally everywhere at this point to stop it.

  2. They did complain about flights being blocked and such when they could have stopped all outgoing flights themselves and saved the rest of the World. Or at least delayed the spread. Instead, they cried “racism” and other BS. Trump should have shut down flights a month earlier or more and from all of China and Iran. Anyone with modest reasoning capacity could see that if Iran was claiming there were only 2 cases both fatal, that they were lying and there were many more.
    And, of course, the Chinese could have taken it much more seriously earlier. They should have been able to shut this down at less than 100 cases…if they had taken steps immediately.

    We should probably also call this the WHO’s virus as well, as they gave some very atrocious advise to governments early on:

  3. Stock will be back. Amazing bargains now. Lots of stuff at 20%-30% previous prices…70%-80% off. Could it go lower? Sure. Waiting, guessing the bottom when bargains abound is a great way to miss out. And I am only suggesting buying the really cheap stuff. And of course there are risks with everything. You don’t want to buy stuff that will go belly up. I like Jack in the Box, for one, but there are many good choices. Wednesday, Wendy’s was a deal. I missed that, though it is still reasonable. I don’t think these big chains will go belly up. And they are probably still selling takeout just about everywhere.

  4. Well it would be a valid thing to blame it for if all the non-profit health systems had been prepared.

  5. We are already testing and tracking many times more, the effect will take time, and we need to do is keep ramping it up in the next couple of weeks.

  6. I think you are referring to Korea which used a combination of tracking apps and massive testing. Since we don’t have those universal tracking apps here and the government has utterly failed at testing, all we have left is shelter in place.

  7. It not fair to blame our for profit healthcare system for failing to prepare for this, after all their job is to maximize share holder profit, right?

  8. The current set of party goers seems pre-diabetic, judging from the average individual size. Quite out of shape, low lung capacity. They will be OK.

  9. Yah, it’s spring break, fill up the beaches! *presses the button that unleashes all the bipedal sharks stationed in the shallows*

    And just like that, with one thousand bipedal sharks, the bad fruit has been snipped from the Gene Tree! Of course we’ll have nobody to teach our children how to chug a beer in two seconds or less, but I can live with that.

    Seriously, though, this ain’t the time for beach parties. >_<

  10. There is a company that made a 5 minute test. We just need to lock down for a day and go to every house and test everyone. Separate all the positives and quarantine. Then back to life as usual for everyone else. Repeat in a week. Maybe more repeats.
    got to make 500,000,000+ of those tests first.
    Probably get all the military personnel, police, reserves, national guard to do all the door knocking and testing.

  11. In some states he can, others he cannot. That’s up to the individual State’s constitutional setup. There’s nothing at the federal level that prevents anything except the suspension of habeas corpus – which is explicitly suspendable only by federal legislative action. And for rebellion and invasion only – can coronavirus be interpreted as an invasion? Hmmm…maybe?

    A governor with his pardoning power practically also has broad leeway to encourage unconstitutional actions in an emergency and the only people he would legally need to justify it to would be the voters.

    The US Constitution is basically designed to allow constitutional rights to be broken on short – that is in between election – timescales, for good or bad.

    Some constitutional opinion here:

  12. “It clearly would have been a LOT better if the *health system* had been as on the ball as Taiwan or Vietnam”

    Yeah. The “health system” wasn’t on the ball. The CDC was screaming to people at the highest levels that this needed to be taken seriously and nothing happened except secretly selling stock portfolios and the message that “it’s all going to go away soon, like a miracle.”

  13. All of these people making life difficult for common Americans have guaranteed incomes and are probably immune from their own lockdown orders.

    Quoting that guy I know again:

    “It’s interesting how a state governor can simply override the federal constitutional protections provided to citizens with a simple stroke of his pen. Freedom to assemble, freedom to practice religion, to travel…. gone – without even a vote of the state congress.”

  14. Just pull the plug Brian, the ensuing dialog is nauseating, dishonest and irrelevant at this point. We’re just about two months too late with what should have been a flexing of our muscular efforts…on all fronts, now the pain sets in. Just admit it. Four to eight weeks of uncertainty, here we come.

  15. And guess what we’re not doing: massive testing. Even now they’re telling us to only get tested if we have symptoms. In South Korea they’re testing 20,000 people every day, most of them without symptoms.

    If you don’t have the test capacity, a massive lockdown is the only remaining option.

  16. Unfortunately it is not an influenza virus but a coronavirus. Similar structure, behavior, flu-like symptoms. There is a basic difference and problem though. Corona is less contagious than flu (they think), BUT there is no vaccine and no immunity built up that the influenza viruses “offer”. Yet. When the seasonal flu comes around, Science sees it, and find a vaccine, and most people get shots, though many die from it anyway. This one has no vaccine, no shots, no widespread immunity (that is really known of at this stage), and contagious. It is also mutating, but that doesn’t have to be a bad thing, and is common with virus – but, it could be worse. Who knows. Therefore, precautionary principal, like granny always said, better safe than sorry.

  17. Yes, I certainly agree with avoiding overload condition. I’m elderly, so am not ignoring that factor either, but the cat is out of the bag, and, over time, cannot expect everything to stop until vaccine. BTW, shouldn’t this vaccine be easier than flu, which has more variety, or is it the same?

  18. yes, though kinda hard to “get it over with” for elderly who have high probability of mortality in systems that are overloaded. Germany, though, has been pretty good at what you are suggesting – an “overcapacitized” hospital system and massive testing and lockdown.

    I think humans will see an all-clear as a sign to get back to normal and we go through rinse and repeat, unfortunately. With mutated strains.

  19. Actually, from the *spread* factor, you want to get it over with as long as hospitals are not overloaded, get back to other life saving activities. Such as O’Neill plans. BUT from the *treatment* factor, each individual benefits (depending on risk factors) from delay as treatments are discovered. A market!

  20. So China is the model with locking people up for any trouble including the Uighurs?

    The numbers you are presenting in order to show the need for a complete lock down are highly contested.

    Other countries have managed to control the virus with massive testings and pinpointed isolation.

  21. Well… yeah. O.o Why wouldn’t we? It doesn’t mean armed guards on the street welding us into our homes. It just means severely limiting our time outside the house and keeping our distance from others. I think a key will be, once this is over, SLOWLY ramping up going out again. Not a huge explosion of everyone going out and minding again immediately. Otherwise I think there’s a bigger risk.

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