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Coronavirus Deaths and Cases Outside of China Passing China Totals

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Coronavirus deaths outside of China are over 2000 and China has 3062 Coronovirus deaths. It seems that in one or two days the Coronavirus deaths outside of China will pass China levels. The official case count outside of China is passing the official case count in China.

The cases outside of China are still growing exponentially.

 OFFICIAL CONFIRMED CASES
80,945 China
17,660 Italy
11,364 Iran
7,979 South Korea
5,232 Spain
3,675 Germany
3,667 France
2,028 US

DEATH COUNT
Hubei China 3062 deaths, 114 other China deaths. Total China deaths 3176 
Italy 1266 deaths
Iran 514 deaths
Spain 133 deaths
France France 79 deaths
Korea, South 66 deaths
Washington US 37 deaths

SOURCES – John Hopkins Dashboard
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com

205 thoughts on “Coronavirus Deaths and Cases Outside of China Passing China Totals”

  3. “They will never realized how many they will have saved.” as compared to what? Doing nothing at all? A low standard! I’m assuming you are talking politics, not nurses.

  4. There is already a solution to the homeless problem and it is to pay rent for a room. Won’t do it because penny wise, pound foolish. Homeless people end up in ER and hospital rooms. Where a single visit would pay rent for a few years.

  5. The prefect virus would not kill for years. It would be a little bit like HIV but respiratory. It would have two stages. Stage 1, you get a cough and it spreads but goes to sleep. Stage 2, a few years later, it wakes up and its full pneumonia and you die.

  6. I applaud their effort. Far more draconian that I though they had the guts to do. We are still going to be overwhelm. People will look at the numbers that died and curse them. They will never realized how many they will have saved.

  7. It doesn’t matter if all you want is an estimate of how many respirator and coffins to order.

  8. First things first. We don’t have enough test kits and we won’t have enough test kits for months after the virus has burnt itself out. Assume everyone got infected and you won’t be too far from the truth.

  9. It either dies off or you die. Maybe two weeks is a bit short but 6 to 8 weeks is much too long.

  10. By the way, the kid got tested with a panel for common things like influenza, and they ruled those out. My brother also got it and went into self isolation. But of course, still no coronavirus testing kit, so who knows.

  12. Well… can you name an asset that doesn’t have 3+ year downturns?

    The issue is downturns of -80%. THAT’s what’s wrong with bitcoin.

  14. You state that with such positivity and so little evidence. Do you simply not like the number?

    I’ll refer again to the Diamond Princess, where the ratio of symptomatic to asymptomatic cases was about 50-50. Since the global Case Fatality Rate is around 4%, the Infection Fatality Rate (including asymptomatic infections) should be around 2%.

    You may want to say that the higher number of elders on the Diamond Princess skewed the results. But the evidence is that infected elders were significantly LESS likely to show symptoms than the younger people who got infected. So if there had been more young people aboard and infected, making it somewhat more like the general population, a HIGHER fraction of infected people would likely have shown symptoms.

    Here’s my source:
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v2.full.pdf

  15. Your death rate cannot be accurate. There are a lot of people who are carriers and asymptomatic or never get confirmed positive. We will know in a few years the real numbers. Look at CDC website for normal flu deaths. They dial in those numbers over years.

  16. I think at this point, the only thing that will save us will be vaccines. The normal development cycle of 12 to 18 months is too long.

    I think the two things that take the most time to calibrate are

    1. effectiveness
    2. side effects.

    Trump should speed this up. 50% effective is better than nothing. The side effects could not be worse than not taking it (in aggregate, not for the person who die from it). We should indemnify the companies and make the vaccine even if we know it is not 100% effective and the side effects unknown.

  17. In the Bay Area, six counties have enacted a stay at home order. All non-essential travel outside the home is prohibited for the next three weeks.

  18. You are basically claiming that the inaction of health officials has been a “strategy”.

    That’s about as true as saying that accidentally falling into a big puddle is a strategy, just because you believe getting wet as fast as possible is the best way to deal with rain.

    Your personal strategy of pushing other people into puddles is criminally reprehensible.

    Getting the herd sick as fast as possible doesn’t improve herd immunity. If we really wanted to use a herd immunity strategy, we would do it on a regional basis to concentrate medical resources, isolate everyone with health issues or over age 50, and then get everyone younger and healthier exposed and over the virus before ending isolation.

    That’d be an actual strategy instead of walking blindly down a rainy street or running down it pushing people into puddles.

    Of course, we’re not doing that – we’re instead now, finally, starting to tell people to stay inside until the rain stops.

  22. I really liked the part where Chinese officials are trying to suggest the virus came from the US Army.

  24. GDP per capita:
    USA: 65100 USD/year
    Sweden: 51200 USD/year

    % foreign born 2019:
    USA: ~15%
    Sweden: 19,6%

    Honestly, DrPat, how many countries in the world has *more* than 19,6% foreign born? Would that be *most* countries or just a handful? Plus, if you only count people under 44 years of age, the percentage of foreign born is over 30% in Sweden. To make the cultural clash more severe, the immigrants to Sweden are not latinos, but africans and arabs. I’d take latinos any day of the week…

    http://statisticstimes.com/economy/projected-world-gdp-capita-ranking.php

    https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/frequently-requested-statistics-immigrants-and-immigration-united-states?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI2c6KxLqf6AIVlh0YCh0yZACGEAAYASAAEgL0xPD_BwE

  25. Is testing labor intensive? Doesn’t seem to be in Korea; they have drive in testing. Is it the same personel caring for the sick who perform the test?

    Also, you don’t answer the question that I posed: given sufficient means to test everyone, why is it stupid to do so?

  26. I agree that the isolation period should be longer, but the point is, we simply don’t have a way to do this effectively like the Chinese (or the Koreans). We will see how it is working out for the Italians with their total lock down. It would give some indication of how well it would work in the U.S.

  27. (Iran cured) is at least as questionable as (Iran dead) at this point. Only in the opposite direction.

  28. well, it has to be really, really cheap because most of “those” types are up to their eyeballs in debt. And that issue – debt – is a totally different ball of wax that will hit with sudden fury given the severe lack of savings for most. I predict helicopter money, actual cash handouts into people’s bank accounts. The “burn rate” on household savings can’t clear more than a month. Then things get really ugly. Debt moratorium and all sorts of other things. Sounds very “socialist”…..

  29. Many vaccines work that way actually. Wouldn’t surprise me if that is what they are developing. https://s3.amazonaws.com/academia.edu.documents/46391665/j.bbrc.2004.10.05220160610-5433-zeelwd.pdf?response-content-disposition=inline%3B%20filename%3DInactivated_SARS-CoV_vaccine_elicits_hig.pdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAIWOWYYGZ2Y53UL3A%2F20200316%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20200316T111902Z&X-Amz-Expires=3600&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=46ed8500b5018786632997c4753230d6d16f47b5c4224c26a73e9b7bd8473a0d

  30. Grocery delivery services are shutting down, or being curtailed, in many locations because of vastly increased demand meaning they can’t meet their service obligations, and/or the supermarket running out of food means they can’t put it on a truck and deliver it.

  31. Regarding panic buying: Has anyone found or compiled a list of what goods are really at risk of running low in the USA?

    E.g. I’ve heard reports that hospitals will be short on disposable surgical masks because they’re made in China.

    Have we off-shored bleach or alcohol production, such that disinfecting wipes and hand-sanitizer really might stay ‘out’ after panic buying tails off? Let alone toilet paper, flour, pasta, etc?

    Closing schools, bars and restaurants makes sense – but are we going to shut down factories supplying critical food and sanitation items? Modern heavily automated factories generally aren’t densely populated sweat-shops, so the risks of working there shouldn’t be a lot more than staying home. Not to mention that lots of workers can’t really afford to take months off.

    Having some of everything on hand is smart – but grocery delivery services ought to keep running through the crisis, and some of the stuff being emptied off the shelves shouldn’t be a problem, if the politicians don’t make it into one.

  32. It is very hard to shift medical personnel across borders if need be. It’s Europe’s achilles heal, that if there are any hard borders in the land of the EU, it’s in medicine.

    Yes, there is English that can be used to bridge, but it’s ICU level protocols, communication, patient record systems, medicines etc. Can be done with huge effort, but mistakes will happen and adjustments are difficult. China has a universal language overlay and has been able to shift medical personnel from anywhere needed.

  33. Hmm – keeping outside air from getting in MIGHT not be a great idea, assuming you don’t have a greenhouse or CO2 scrubbers and a large O2 tank in your house. But congratulations on your preparations.

  34. I agree with the prescription, but 2 weeks won’t be enough.

    It took China a month after getting serious about isolation to hit peak cases, and after another month is down to 1/6th of peak. Another month and they MIGHT be at or near zero cases.

    Most countries won’t react as strongly as China did, so 3 months of isolation is probably about the minimum needed anywhere the number of active cases is still increasing rapidly.

  35. Or they know that as scientists study the virus in detail, they’ll become increasingly certain it was genetically engineered.

  36. Bitcoin will make more sense once all the national
    banks do QE 6-15 to jumpstart the world economy in 3 months.

  40. Regrettably I have a friend of a friend who is a CCP party loyalist who has personally seen more dead bodies in body bags than have been reported in their entire province. It isn’t hard to lower the death numbers- just claim any other reason as the cause of death.

  42. Why? What’s the problem with “panic”?

    So they have to eat more beans and rice for the next year to work through their stockpile? Probably good for them, lots of fibre, complex carbs and protein.

    Why this insistence that being scared is a worse threat than dying of lung disease?

  43. Sadly, I dismissed BTC for this reason back when it was under a dollar. So don’t ask me for advice.

  44. That’s a good analysis. I like it.

    A bit more charitable than the only explanation I could think of, which is that all the “itsonlyfludon’tpanic” types were hoping to pick up cheap housing after all the old people die.

  45. Prisons are just about perfectly designed to INCREASE disease spread. That’s completely backwards.

    What all the old people should do is stay in their individual homes, nicely separated from the house next door, and have food delivered through a disinfection airlock type procedure.

  46. Not logical. If Trump wanted people to get sick, he’d want them to get it from kale and tofu vegetarian shops. You need to think through your fantasy conspiracies.

  49. Diamond Princess is a great source of data, but it needs to be adjusted for 2 very important points:
    — The age distribution for DP skews much older than any nation, even including Italy or Japan. So a much higher rate of serious symptoms.
    — The DP passengers got good medical treatment. Rubbish preventative treatment, but they all got a high level of actual treatment once they got sick. They didn’t run out of oxygen systems or have to triage anyone out of a bed. We have seen that once a whole nation gets a high enough case load that this isn’t true any more.

  51. Sufficient test kits (including not running out of all the ones you will need for the next several months).
    AND sufficient trained medical personnel to perform such tests… that are not otherwise completely swamped with work as they definitely appear to be at this point.

  54. (Iran cured)/(Italy cured)*(Italy dead)= first approximation of Iranian dead
    Italian authorities onest enough on these matters

  55. The best data set we’ve got is from the Diamond Princess, where most passengers were tested, and about half those infected showed no symptoms. Of those with symptoms, the mortality rate is currently about 3% and that will likely rise as the remaining cases resolve.

    I did make a mistake in my estimate of worst case deaths – that should have used 2% of population, assuming half the population never shows symptoms – so about 6M.

  56. As I’ve noted elsewhere, the 0.1% death rate for “normal” (seasonal) flu is for mostly symptomatic cases, maybe even mostly non-mild cases, because people just treat the rest at home on their own. Those mild and asymptomatic cases of seasonal flu aren’t counted.

    Now if you take only the symptomatic cases of SARS-CoV-2, same as as for seasonal flu, then its death rate for that set of cases is probably higher than 2%. The reported death rate varies from about 0.7% to 7%, but the lower end includes a lot of mild and asymptomatic cases, which the seasonal flu statistic does not.

    2% vs 0.1% for the symptomatic cases would be 20 times higher. But as I said, it’s probably higher than that.

  57. Not really. They’re exponential with an average growth rate of 30% per day over the last 5 days. At that rate, they’re about a week behind those other countries.
    edit: About a week and a half behind Italy.

    Their death rate is also comparable. A bit higher than France’s.

  58. soon we will be able to get coronavirus test at a drive in… all while ordering two Big Macs… just the way trump wants it… Ok kidding,,.

  60. I have a better idea… gather all the seniors and put them together In a prison for 6 month… if they don’t agree then it’s their fault for dieing…

  61. Bernie says free corona virus tests for all modeled after Sweden’s healthcare system… umm… yeah… then, Biden just laughs and says he doesn’t need to do anything but be a president that’s not trump… policy? Eh…who cares… policy is not trump … don’t need to do anything for 4 years but take a nap..

  62. I suppose for economic reasons. They don’t
    want to bring the country to a standstill, which
    doesn’t even guarantee durable success.
    As I said, it’s a hair-rising gamble.

  63. Something like that. So far I do see a drop from around 25% increase per day to around 20% over the last few days. But that’s not much, and it’s still exponential. 3 more days of 20% growth would put them above 40K. And that growth won’t be dropping to 0 overnight.

  65. Main st retail will always be overly susceptible to public perceptions, can’t force customers in the door when delivery is an option.
    I didn’t ask, but i suspected some level of coercion was used in getting things back on track at our locations-“Show up for work or you will be replaced etc“.
    It’s always good to have options, most people tend to have very little. Given the small amount of PTO being the norm even for mechanic/machinist types, it will not take long before desperation sets in and external coercion becomes redundant.

    I’ve always imagined everyone would be much better off if they had more options, just like people like myself. They would make better decisions and engage in less deleterious actions in the world born out of a sense of desperation. The world is still transitioning, but the legacy engines of civilization still has a need for people with little or no options. This situation is just another reminder that i don’t have a coherent picture of what the global engine of production is transitioning to, will it free itself from this critical dependency on desperate people.
    People with options are not willing to do certain things, not willing to undertake certain hardships for any amount of money, I know I’m not willing

  66. Sweden is neither so rich, so cohesive and so well organized as it once was. Not to mention all the politically correct idiots who permeate the different levels of government.

  67. No. Due to the high contagion factor and high variability of symptoms, my guess is that true mortality is in the 0.5-1% range for this bug. Still 5-10 times stronger than the ?normal” flu but high enough to cause damage noticeable. For those that develop severe symptoms, my guess is that this is bad news even if you survive from what I am reading.

    I came down with H1N1 once, my grandmother who I was visiting gave it to me and died from it, granted she was 95. I coughed up blood for a night, recovered fully after ~5 days. Though my lungs have never quite been the same. I now get bronchitis easier, every other year any bad allergy attack can cause it overnight. Previously could run under 5:30 mile times, now that’s a joke.

    Lesson: Don’t take a bad flu lightly. I am thinking this could be worse.

  68. Why is testing the whole country stupid if you have enough test kits to perform the tests? If you do, you would get much better statistics. You could calculate (with some additional data) how likely a transmission is from a carrier. You would know what the actual rate of infection is a.s.o.

    I can’t see any real drawback, provided there are sufficient test kits.

  71. What I have been hearing/reading is that this virus is especially virulent against the elderly due to a certain protein receptor. In younger people this receptor is blocked as they produce high amounts of the protein. However, this protein decreases with age, leaving more unfilled receptors on cells. The more receptors available, the more replication, the more virulent.

  73. China’s numbers are a farce. They have gone on to blaming others for the problem in state media. That tells me it’s much worse than they are letting on and they are trying to use it for nationalism propaganda. While in fact being the creator. My guess is it’s 10-20x worse than they claim.

  75. Thankfully, we evolved a type of adaptive immune response which doesn’t rely on specific genes for each virus.

  76. After reading hundreds of comments here and even more in “financial news” sites, I am starting to see a distinct pattern. There are 5 camps. Probably more if you follow 5 stages of grief.
    One: denial, nothing to see here, regular flu, this is a (somehow) a global media, medical and political hallucination taking place.
    Two: this is serious but the jury is still out on how bad because figures are unreliable so wait and see
    Three: my basement looks like a Costco warehouse and my vacation to Hawaii has been ruined (a result of 1 and 2)
    Four: It’s (insert person/political party/country) fault.

    The Fifth one is rarer. Understanding tail risk. Or, as grandmothers like to say: better safe than sorry.

  77. And I’m sick of snarky jerks on the internet. I don’t think we’re going to have that one solved anytime soon either.

    If you’ll notice, my post was not saying “Yeah definitely coronavirus.” I was making a point about a lack of testing and optics. For some reason you felt the need to assume some extra certainty into being. You’re worried about a panic? Encourage people to get used to shades of gray.

  78. Not my point, Jennifer was referring to the inability to test people sufficiently. 1000 cases and the system fails. South Korea has 5x the population and has tested 250k. For Sweden to be comparable they would have had to tested by now 50,000, not 1,000. Looks like Sweden has failed in a major way.

    Your comment is bloody obvious, you can’t capacitize any system to account for a black swan event. In medicine that means to make the numerator (number of sick) as small as possible.

  79. Yes, you can’t “overcapacitize” the health care system waiting for a black swan event. And for that very reason, the most prudent option is to change the numerator (number of patients) by lock-down.

    China basically threw the rural population under the bus and brought in manpower. It is basically impossible to do this in non-totalitarian states, and certainly in places like Europe where language is an issue, apart from the fact they are all sovereign states regardless of the “EU” brand.

  80. Correct. At the same time other nordic countries like Denmark and Norway are on lockdown. Maybe Sweden is more dysfunctional than they appear.

  81. Hint: “Here in Sweden,” I am pretty sure it isn’t the first time “Jennifer” has referred to the land of the midnight sun. And what was the point of your comment anyway?

  83. Hi, I am from Germany and like to check on this website from time to time. So here public life is shut down slowly starting with schools and universities and big gatherings >1000 people and now extending to restaurants Cafe’s and also private gatherings >10 should be avoided. We have extremely good laboratory system over here and caught the virus early in it’s track, which also makes our death rate when people can be treated pretty accurate at about 0,2%. The proplem is when the virus is noticed too late which overwhelmes the hospital infrastructure and more people die because they can not be treated properly like the case in Italy and China. Symptoms are high fever and pneumonia which is bad for old and people with certain medical conditions. The numbers in the US are probably much higher simply because they are the biggest economy and have most trade with China. So a shut down of regular life is inevitable for a few month and a gradual come back to normality once a cure is available. Until then the focus is to not overwhelm our medical infrastructure. Keep save!

  84. The mortality rate is not 3% though, it’s 0.7% outside China, and 80% of those deaths are over 60. Your comments make it sound like Simian Flu in Planet of the Apes, or Ebola, when in reality it’s comparable to bad seasonal flu. Indeed, it’s possible less people net, will die because of it, since the reduction in cold and flu deaths, and from air pollution, will exceed those dying from covid19.

    In the US alone, 100,000 people die from air pollution every year, 1 million in China, 7 million globally. We’ve already seen a massive drop in air pollution in China and Italy due to the lockdowns. Half that and 3.5 million will not die. Then add in a reduction in deaths due to seasonal cold and flu which will be reduced due to Covid19 measures, and in total 4 million people may not die because of the response to Covid19.

  85. I still don’t understand bitcoin.

    Oh I have an approximate grasp of the technology, I just don’t see why anyone cares.

    This is proof that someone has done a lot of work, so it’s valuable.

    So? A strava record showing someone doing a full marathon is proof of doing a lot of work. It doesn’t mean anyone’ll exchange any goods or services for it.

    Nobody cares how much work you did once you graduate from school (even then they were just pretending). What people care about it what value you have produced.

  86. My personal contacts in China report that some business is ramping up again, manufacturing for export especially.
    Other businesses, especially the service sector serving the Chinese population is still nosediving into the ground. (Except home delivery of food.)
    One fairly big shopping centre in Beijing having something like 50% of all shops having already submitted for breaking their lease on the grounds of bankruptcy. The ones that haven’t being parts of big chains that presumably have a lot more resources to back them up.

  87. Even dumber, wars against the very people (Saudi Arabia, USA) that they would now need oil price help from.

  88. Though at this point, a delay of a year looks about as likely as escaping to the Martian colony in that same timeframe.

  90. If it has a mortality of 3% that means 3 million deaths in a country the size of the USA if just a third of the population gets infected, and that’s forgetting about those in the rest of the world.

    It can end up in more deaths than those caused by any other plague or war the world has ever seen, simply because there are so many humans alive on Earth nowadays.

    Even if most infected can actually cope with it and survive, the amount of suffering, social, economic and political turmoil such a a tragic event will cause is unimaginable.

  92. “They developed their own antivirals because American companies were greedy. They also gave these drugs to Africans and their doctors were sent to Africa to help.”
    Pull the other one…..
    Most of the antivirals in Africa are courtesy of US aid and a couple of other western donors. The rest is mainly sourced from India. Cuban doctors have a stinking reputation in South Africa.

  94. China has a growing number of elderly to cope with, thanks to its myopic One Child Policy. Now that problem is being solved for them, thanks to Coronavirus. Biran doesn’t mind – it’ll just help him put out more rosy reports on China’s vigorous future – the human details don’t matter.

  96. You people are talking like this thing is Ebola. This thing is just a bad flu. It won’t cause the collapse of society, except through the panic is seems to have created. The flu kills tens of thousands every year, mainly the elderly and infirm – yet we haven’t shut down society because of it – at least not in modern times. This Coronavirus is not dozens of times more deadly than the flu, and yet it seems to have generated dozens of times the panic response.

  97. “unless they found the secret cure for the sick”.
    I think they did – mass graves, that’s what I read somewhere, don’t know if it is true.

  98. Stupid strategy. There will probably be a vaccine or two ready and approved for use at the end of the year maybe a few months later. They already have vaccines…they just need testing. I think there are at least 5 ready for testing. Inovio, Moderna, Greffex, MIGAL and Sunnybrook Research Institute all have vaccines. And there are perhaps another 6 working on making one. Then there are companies making antibodies and other treatments. And there are ones testing their anti HIV weapons.
    With all these companies something is going to work possibly several. So why on Earth just let it get on with killing. All you need is a delay of a year…maybe just 6 months.

  99. 1000 cases – but what is your death toll? Is it mainly the elderly who’ve died?

    Shit, I just wish I could get myself infected and have it over with. I’m pretty sure I can recover from this, if I can recover from the flu. This prolonged dance of uncertainty is the worst.

  100. … and…. my previous answer of “no” becomes incorrect.

    He’s a fairly healthy guy, should be OK.

    Pat

  102. Didn’t you read what they are planning to do?
    Quarantine everybody over 70 and let the disease roam free in the rest of the populace.
    so after quarantine the elders will find a vaccinated population whose herd immunity
    should protect them also. Victims should not exceed 400k, owing to the best survivability
    of the youngest. Call it a political gamble…

  103. The numbers I can see show England doing significantly better than Italy, Spain, Germany, France… just about all the other large European countries they could be compared to.

  105. 2-14 day incubation, 5 days in so speaking generally (not knowing the % who show symptoms in what day) so 3 more bad days before it gets better?

  107. Business is in progress of rebounding, the country itself is starting to get back to normal. I have a small interest in an industrial equipment manufacturing company with factories in China, they are back up and running and supply lines are rapidly approaching precrisis levels.
    Civilization will fall down if everyone hunkers down at home too long waiting for the all clear.

  108. virus evolution…it only picks on old people so that the population can’t develop a genetic immunity to its attacks… if it attacked the younger population eventually people would become immune to it through natural selection,..

  109. still Exponential growth outside of g20 (minus India… that’s just a normal disease for them..)

  110. Well, Swambo (if that is your real name), we can either trust those people who, until now, have been sensible and factual in their comments over at least several months, or just give up and turn into a den of vice and iniquity like Twitter.

  111. That completely sidesteps Glockman’s question: If rich, well organised, socially cohesive Sweden falls over then just stock up on beans, bullets and toilet paper because nobody is going to get through this without some combination of martial law and total collapse.

  112. Iran, and England also, if they go on like this is going to show us what this virus can do if unchecked

  113. Of course, if/when he gets tested, you’ll be the first to know the result.

    But why did you feel the need to be snarky about it? Tense lately? Just always like that? Spend too much time on the internet? Take it easy, go outside to some nice public events and enjoy yourself for awhile. Maybe go for a vacation. Italy is nice this time of year.

  114. “I would not be compeling people to move. I would be empowering them to move. No tax on swiching homes to go to work somewhere else” charging more to stay is more than an enhancement. Taxes are not “voluntary”, despite the repeated IRS claim. Tax credit for funding what you support, a middle ground in the libertarian direction?

  115. And “enhance” is exactly that. I would not be compeling people to move. I would be empowering them to move. No tax on swiching homes to go to work somewhere else. A funded way to move belongings…which is somewhat complicated, a system to help in getting jobs, also complicated…but alows for the rapid change of jobs without sitting at home out of a job for weeks or months. Fireing would also be easier, but with a new job the next day if you want…not nearly as traumatic. The ease by which you can go somewhere else, puts pressure on employers to offer good wages to keep the people they need.

  117. We should have had the easy life after discovering fire and primitive language. Instead we have been in a predator/prey struggle with our reproductive System of Pain. Thus our brain had to keep rapidly expanding, to handle the repression.

  118. I’m actually a practical libertarian. My views are informed by the fact that I know the science, Primal science. It overwhelms other considerations even more than O’Neill overwhelms plantetarianism. Your solutions are not needed if neurosis did not exist. They are not the cause of good. Just a reaction.

  119. Two weeks of nationwide isolation will end this. Unfortunately, we being human, are governed by emotions such as fear. If I was living in Seattle and the medical services collapsed, and my loved ones are sick, I will move heaven and earth to bring them to a different place where medical services are still available, maybe spreading the disease in the process. Extrapolation from the doubling math may not be accurate over the course, but a lot of folks are going to get this before it is done, and a few areas such as Washington and New York will likely see a break down in the medical services.

  120. I would do the same. It saved lives. It is being responsible to the public. How many people died of Aids in Cuba? 482 total! In the US 658,507 have died. And approximately 16,000 more die in the U.S. every year.
    They have not neglected these people as your tone would suggest. They developed their own antivirals because American companies were greedy. They also gave these drugs to Africans and their doctors were sent to Africa to help.

  122. The best writeup i’ve seen is that you have 7x the verified number of cases.

    Certainly the death rate in may countries looks scary because many people with lesser cases aren’t tested to pull the fatality % down. Squeaky wheels get the grease, sickly people get the tests.

  124. I fully acknowledge that all laws are coercion. That is a basic fact of political theory. It may cause a little shudder for those who have not recognized it. But that is reality. As such, in my mind there needs to be valid justification for each. But to go into that, I would have to explain my political theory more than I am inclined.

  126. For natural populations, only if a population is culled occasionally (war, famine, lunatic murderers, armed drunken idiots, plagues, natural disasters, wolves) will they avoid being at the edge of starvation perpetually, as population growth will keep it that way.
    Political order made innovation more than a one idea in a thousand years thing.

  127. I think China’s numbers a an absolute farce. China has been lying from the beginning. It is in the process of shaping information for the sake of consolidating power for the Communist party. They are also spreading the rumor that the Wuhan Virus started outside China; blaming the U.S. I find it hard to believe that much smaller, and more hygienic, countries are getting sicker than China.

  128. No, they certainty would not be able to meet their needs without political order. Political order such as property rights is critical to modern productivity. Without political order there would only be a small fraction of humanity. Wax nostalgic and romantic about some imagined past, if you will, but don’t then call everyone else crazy.
    If everyone cared as mush about their neighbors as themselves, there would be less need for corrosion. But that is not the reality we live in.
    You are absolutely needily dependent. Did you build by hand your home with tools you made from resources you found? Grow all your own food and fiber for your clothing? Bring the water to your home? Build your automobile? Create your own fuel? Grind your own glasses to see out of? Perform your own dentistry? Build your computer/phone from atoms?
    And the cost of living an easy life with innumerable luxuries you refuse to acknowledge is obeying a few rules. How tragic our lives!!
    I think you are an Anarchist rather than a Libertarian. It is not a derogatory term, it is a well developed political perspective.
    We all have impediments to our actions. Those impediments due to disorder are far more restrictive than those imposed in any political system on this planet. At least for the average citizen. There are those such as minorities in some that still have a more restricted life. Not talking U.S. More people who are profoundly oppressed often in wars and genocidal campaigns.

  129. Because an efficient healthcare system does not carry the capacity for perhaps 10-15% of its population to be seriously sick at the same time. If it did, it would bankrupt the country in the decades between major epidemics. If epidemics were to become more regular, then likely the system would build standby capacity, both in physical resources and trained staff. To some extent, China has demonstrated this through the construction of the temporary hospitals in Wuhan, which was a learning from SARS.

  130. Line at my local Costco (Tustin, CA): about 500 people in a nice line waiting to get in. Looked like a Disneyland ride line. Local Whole Foods was in the process of being emptied.

    Prepping status: most excellent! At least one month of food, can be stretched to two months, mix of frozen, refrigerated and dry goods. Plenty of gloves, wipes, purell, etc. Cars serviced and gassed up. More ammo than an Aliens automatic targeting gun.

    School cancelled until April 6th, kids comfortably playing iPads. Work status: remote.

    Not quite at the point where I tape the downstairs doors and windows to prevent outside air from getting in, only at Defcon 3 ATM.

  131. No, community spread is too tied to geography and other geographic metrics. HUGE difference between solo commuters vs people who take buses.

    Thinking about it, just swab the busses. Here we are hoping that greater LA’s love of cars (and disdain for public transport) combined with the suburbs will lead to great social distancing.

  132. I notice you avoided using the word “force”, instead “enhance”, “would also limit”. Try to think of an ethical solution. Remember that it must also apply to “welfare for the rich”. Unlike our current power based insanity.

  133. It was definitely artificially spread in Iran. It was imported on airliners from China and spread by everyone licking the same shrine.

    Nothing “natural” about that at all.

  134. Be on the lookout for videos of floppers on twitter. Nowadays when people fall down people record and post it. Its a good metric for how prevalent and widespread this problem is. When videos of people falling down and not being able to get up are common then things are about to get out of control.

    The homeless in LA would seem to be a good canary for the coronavirus coal mine. So far no videos of rampant collapsing among the homeless of LA but it is inevitable. Aid workers and the county have already admitted that the strategy is to deal with an outbreak, not to prevent it.

    The cynic in me sometimes thinks that or local government has at last found a solution to the homeless problem.

  135. Companies have to compete for workers…ordinary supply and demand. I would enhance this. Aid in the ability for people to move where wages are better and cost of living lower. I would also limit corporate executives from raiding the profits and investment dollars to line their pockets. Their compensation would be limited to 50x the lowest paid employee. It is a conflict of interest to set your own wages. If they are limited to 50x the lowest they are motivated to raise the lowest. They get another $50 for every dollar more they give him.
    Aggression? Not necessary

  136. The #Iran twitter feed and other channels have more videos along the lines of “That guy collapsed on the road and has been lying there for an hour and no ambulances will come to help him”. From this i’d guess that they are 1-2 weeks away from most everything falling apart. Sad really.

  137. You are seeing the last few years, when language and tech has really made us “on top”. What I am describing goes back to our split with the Chimp/Bonobo whatever. 7 million years of rapid brain size evolution is not because we were smart! Instead, “People often on the edge of starvation, often at war, with short lives.” Neurotic!

  138. “What I see as the big flaws with Libertarianism are that the public good, health, and safety are ignored. Only security is addressed. Further, consumer protections are ignored unless the abuses are egregious.” Gov ignores them, unless 50%+ force them to. Enlightened self interest would *seem* to imply some concern for these things, no? There is also the poss that power addiction is the most dangerous addiction of all. An example of a prob: war.

  139. Political order to the contrary is what has allowed populations to flourish. Without political order there would be at best 5 million people on Earth. People often on the edge of starvation, often at war, with short lives.

    Actually, there are 4 common ways socities die. 1)A river shifts to many miles away (most civilizations are reliant on a river or a lake). 2)They damage their environment…usually the soil. 3)Another culture destroys them 4)or there is a tendency to create more and more jobs that don’t actually contribute anything in the practical sense to survival. Then they take more and more from those who actually produce the necessities, and eventually this class deserts or rebels, leaving the pompous appreciative fat seat shiners to die.
    We were headed in the direction of 4. But the partial mechanization of farming, transport, food preparation, and some other areas has countered this to some degree. The attack on migrant workers though I see as worse than dubious.

  140. “freedom they would give to companies would allow companies to sell stuff based on all sorts of pseudoscientific nonsense” Think along the lines of UL. Should people be allowed to smoke cigs or drink alc at home? Of course, false claims are FRAUD, not libertarian at all. “force or fraud” prohibited, or you are no longer in the truce, to use American Libertarian formality.

  141. “flaws is political campaign funding by special interests and the consequent reciprocation, or propose any way to eliminate this.” Um, I think eliminating political *power* solves this problem nicely, no?

  142. You are lost in the weeds. All mentally healthy people have a “live and live” attitude and are mostly competent to meet their needs, thus not unneededly dependent. NOT all “libertarians” are mentally healthy! ALL mentally healthy are “libertarian”. And power addiction, or codependency with it, particularly mixed with mysticism, aka theocracy, is a symptom of a generally curable mental disease. 50 year old discovery!

  143. What I see as the big flaws with Libertarianism are that the public good, health, and safety are ignored. Only security is addressed. Further, consumer protections are ignored unless the abuses are egregious.
    Though I am assuming an American type “Libertarian”. There are actually a wide variety including communist libertarians.
    It can be argued that Libertarianism is incompatible with the Constitution. While “Liberty” is obviously a major goal in our founding, we also charge the Federal government with the responsibility to “promote the general Welfare“. And this is listed above “freedom” and below “a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for common defense,”
    Libertarians point out flaws with our system but fail to point out that the overwhelming cause of most of our flaws is political campaign funding by special interests and the consequent reciprocation, or propose any way to eliminate this.
    And the freedom they would give to companies would allow companies to sell stuff based on all sorts of pseudoscientific nonsense like this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radithor
    You are of course welcome to challenge these perceptions.

  144. It was not hard for the Institute to make this virus, they can make another anytime.

    The next virus may have a significantly higher virulence, while maintaining the contagiousness of Wuhan 2019.

  145. Every dummkopf can extrapolate. But not everyone understands the limits of extrapolation in every specific case. This is one reason why journalists and politicians fall for such idiotic theories.

  147. Only question is how high the wave will be.

    That depends on how soon and how sharply the spread will slow down.

    I agree that the lockdown should help, but so far the slow down isn’t showing much. If I’m not mistaken, it’s been 5 days now? Maybe 4 since the full lockdown? If there’s another week or two delay, say due to the incubation time, they’ll very likely hit 80K cases.

  148. “Unions are a basic incompatibility with the conditions of Perfect competition. It is a form of monopoly to extort higher wages at a high cost to the rest of society”
    If the unions were under the same restraint as the companies, they are logically doing the same thing. Worker business v business business, but business. It is when the gov takes control of the outcome rather than the rules, esp for non aggression, that we get big probs. And, non aggression is *ethical*, by the way.

  149. The problem is that people are as crazy as they can possibly be. Overall, at least. The “System” of ritual Pain infliction, aka civilization, on the young grows until the group it infests dies out, leaving only the fringe to reproduce successfully. Solve that 7 million year ongoing problem and other things will get better. More specifically, power addicts will be challenged for what they are: neurotic.

  151. Cuban doctors aren’t what you would call a doctor in most countries. Their solution to Aids was to lock all the infected in a remote part of the country.

  152. I am a political theorist. My philosophy is unnamed as yet but, there is a unifying logic. I can’t go into that, but of relevance here is that you want a healthy market system and that means that you have to strive towards Perfect Competition and against misinformation about products, and any monopolistic tendencies…ideally having at least 20 comparable products from different manufacturers/providers and sellers. However, when a market is inherently incompatible with the ideal conditions of Perfect Competition, you need creative governing to enhance their approximation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perfect_competition#Idealizing_conditions_of_perfect_competition
    Some things it is better for the government to contract out or do itself. There should always be an enduring threat of replacing one with the other to keep prices in check. If contractors are not offering a reasonable price then government does the job itself or vice versa.
    Unions are a basic incompatibility with the conditions of Perfect competition. It is a form of monopoly to extort higher wages at a high cost to the rest of society. If government is going to do some things, the unions must go. And wages but be supply and demand derived as they are in the private sector. All pensions in the US government or otherwise would be moved into Social Security except Pres., V.P., Congress, and Supreme Court.
    If an accurately informed public thinks we need more physicians then there would be steps taken.

  153. Randomised community testing programs can reveal the underwater part. At the moment there are not enough test kits to warrant the use of test kits for this purpose.

  157. Anti-vaxxers should be in heaven right now, it’s their big chance to prove everyone else wrong.

  158. As a libertarian, I would point out that
    “Cuba has lots of doctors per capita. The US has few, because the doctor unions want it that way.” is that way because the docs have a legal monopoly. That is what needs to change to fix the system. Let “rich” people determine the services freely, then give money to the poor to buy into that system. Tax credit for such gifts. Same idea for education, etc. Gov not in control!

  159. The goal is to slow, not escape, infection. So care will be avail for very sick. Don’t listen to those who dismiss this, or you may find yourself more likely outside, in line for the next ventilator, dying. This would mean proportionally fewer of those who DO listen to the jibberish will be alive to vote in the next US election.

  161. 2nd only in certainty to dirt poor credibility and quality of discourse from hit & run comment section user accounts. Contrails, “UFOs are everywhere”, antivax, flat earth, non-evolution, fuzzy logic mystic new ageism, far right and far left and far idiot, self-serving [insert country/tribe here]-biased eyholes, reptilians, Moon landing deniers, [insert conspiracy here], [insert mind meltingly stupid sophistry here]…

    You name it, they got it.

  163. The other way you know will be when people start showing up at the hospitals. A small percentage (1% to 3%) of the infected population will get severely ill and significant portion of those will die. The tip of the iceberg can tell you how big the iceberg is if you are willing to see it.

  164. Stupid is as stupid does. Testing the entire country is stupid. You test health care workers and people who might have been exposed to the virus so you can isolated them. The best thing to do is just shut the country down for two weeks.

  165. Isolation is the best and only cure for the virus. Everybody should just stay home for two weeks until it burns itself out.

    We have no treatment so stay home.

  166. The only way any country can handle it, is if they contain it to less than 20% of their country and bring in heath workers from the protected areas like China did.
    Cuba has lots of doctors per capita. The US has few, because the doctor unions want it that way.
    The reality is that these things are so rare that, if we were actually prepared for a complete spread of something like this, we would be economically disadvantaged. We would need roughly 6x as many doctors and nurses. Assuming one doctor can deal with 150 patients in an 8 hour shift. That would also be a brain drain from other professions which is where the economic disadvantage comes in. Unless we made the average person more intelligent with better prenatal care, nutrition, and possibly engendered supplements or genetic surgery.
    I know a pharmacist who remembers everyone by name and what their medications are and he is at a Sam’s Club with many thousands of people getting their medications. Imagine how productive we could be, if we all had memories like that. Out of the 130 college instructors I have had, there are 5 or 6 that were quite remarkable. Imagine if it was instead 100/130 or something.

  168. Oh the antivaccers…. I really hope they will still keep along their principle after the vaccine developed.

  169. Being infected is far from being sick. And if you are sick you have 96% chance to survive. As far as I know, only 90% of the infecteds become sick.

  171. Yeah don’t trust CCP numbers. The US is a long way behind a country like Britain in testing per capita so we have no idea of the true levels in the US. Only when testing is widespread will know.

  172. Isn’t that one of those “best practice” universal health care systems? If they can’t handle it, who can?

  173. It’s the old story of the boy that cried wolf. Once known as a liar, it becomes very difficult to be taken at face value because the value of your word is known to be worthless. This is as true for countries as people.

  174. Coronavirus is proving that bit coin has failed as a digital currency… simply because too few people own bit coins and all of them use it only as a speculative investment instead of as a currency… Percent of people who buy bitcoin as pump and dumpers: 90% … percent of people who buy US dollars as pump and dumpers: 2%

  175. Well, there’s measuring pollution from Chinese factories from orbit; That suggests they’ve restarted their factories, which at least suggests they’ve gotten on top of things.

  176. China admitted totals. Wanna bet it isn’t running rampant through Ughur regions without any effort to combat it?

  177. I think the “reported cases” figures are becoming useless.
    Here in Sweden, the authorities have now given up testing in the entire country. The healthcare system was overwhelmed and collapsed at less than 1000 cases. So the figures from many countries are quickly becoming irrelevant.

  178. But those error bars would still be based on his opinion, just like his underlying premise.
    News sources that supports his beliefs will obviously be trustworthy, sources that contradicts his beliefs will obviously be due to fraud or a conspiracy.

    If communists are known to lie, doesn’t it feel right that all communists always lie about everything.

  179. It’s interesting how different countries are managing this epidemic. Unfortunately communist and totalitarian states have a great propensity to lie which makes trying to plan what best to do a near impossibility. The UK has stood out as a place that they are trying to get the best advise that is available and do the calculations accordingly. It is a tough call as there are loads of people out there just ready to nock the scientists down. What we have seen with the “antivaccers” is coming home to roost.
    Keep safe and carry on!!!

  181. Based on official numbers, Italy’s total cases alone will pass China’s within a week, unless they manage to slow them down.

  183. Not infected, but my mom worked with a client who had to go to quarantine. They found out while mom was working with them, and went straight to quarantine from there. Luckily, they weren’t infected AFAIK.

  184. My nephew has had a fever for 3 days. Does he have it? The system is being stingy with test kits, so how can we know?

    But the schools in my city just shut down, and that’s the sort of stuff that gets you to read into things.

  185. I’ve heard several media outlets mention estimates of 60-70% of the population will be infected. Though they’re not saying how fast that can happen.

    Italy is showing us that if the healthcare system gets overwhelmed with too many heavy cases, the death rate can be as high as 7%, maybe more (it depends also on the age distribution – Italy has more older people).

    The older data from China says the incidence of severe cases is ~15% (out of diagnosed), and critical is 5%. Can the US handle 45 million severe and critical cases? My guess is if it reaches that level, US death rate will be higher than 4%.

  186. Technically the sanctions don’t cover food and medical supplies, so they can buy that stuff. They just can’t afford it without selling oil.

    And sanctions aside, oil is about $30 per barrel right now. Saudia Arabia isn’t about to let that up just to help out Iran.

  187. Secure but undisclosed location. Sheltered in a deep underground bunker surrounded by layers of toilet paper and hand washing lotion.

  188. Based on their official numbers (which, as noted, are completely unreliable), Iran’s death rate is rising again, and currently at 4.5%.

  189. I would also like to criticise this point… but I don’t know how you could get a better data source.

    You could, I guess, plot the graphs using error bars based on your opinion of data trustworthiness.

  190. I’m still a no on that question. So far.

    I did have a university classmate die from Swine Flu. (I mean we were university classmates when we went to uni. We had both graduated long before the flu turned up.)

  191. Really? The exponential growth rate is ALL I ever hear anyone talk about.

    I guess we follow different media. Except NBF of course.

  192. Does anyone here know someone who has been afflicted? I know one – a nurse. Its like 6 degrees of separation, a way to measure the spread of the virus. Once Kevin Bacon gets it we are all in for a ride.

  193. One good thing coming out of all this is people might, just might, learn the law of exponents. Now do this for places like India. Nigeria. Mexico. Bangladesh. Enormous urban settings with little to no ability to control spread, or treat, for that matter.

  194. What I haven’t heard any news media talking about, and I suppose most people don’t think about, is the impact of exponential growth of cases.

    If the US doesn’t take dramatic steps to limit growth, the spread could be complete in the US before the end of April, with essentially every one in the US having had the disease.

    Most people, upon hearing that would say “No, that can’t be right.” But that’s what a 33% daily increase in cases gets you. Specifically April 24th, if you run the numbers.

    A few weeks to a month later, deaths would tail off at something like 13,000,000 (assuming a 4% ultimate mortality rate, which China is edging toward).

    We want to stretch the spread to over 200 days, so we have a good chance of getting a vaccine. To do that, we need to quickly damp our rate of spread to at most 6% per day. South Korea, with 20x as many cases per capita, got their rate down close to 1%, so this isn’t impossible.

  195. China is lying about the deaths from Wuhan Virus. You just need look at sources inside China to see the Communists are lying, like they always do. Don’t be willfully blind Brian.

  197. The key to cutting mortality rate in Iran would be to lift sanctions so they can buy food and medical supplies to treat the ill.

  198. Mortality rate varies quite a bit. South Korea will be around 0.7%. I expect Iran to be 5% 🙁

    keys to cutting the mortality rate are social distancing, time, health care status, and hopefully an antiviral working.

  200. With certainty you can say the virus was artificially spread in Iran. US and Israel likely culprits.

  201. What this world needs is a lickdemic! Also, I guess the Blarney Stone will be getting less attention for a while.

    I hope the media doesn’t start acting surprised that the world mortality rate for a disease has the ability surpass the rate for a single country. Because, well, math. Also, because, DUH!

  202. I see hope. I see the number of new cases in Italy stabilizing in the last 3 days to around 2600. Perhaps there is a containment level that is reached after two month of flaming epidemic that is proportional to the level of screening the country offers. If you look at the table below you can see that Italy has a descent level of screening, S Korea has a 4 times higher and their epidemic peaked at a lower point. Worriesomingly, we are way below in screening levels so far.

    https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-Wp5FIRXwo7PpLlzKHkj4_5BF10=/0x0:1567×1959/1120×0/filters:focal(0x0:1567×1959):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19787964/covid_19_testing_per_capita.jpg

  203. Iran’s numbers make no sense. Too many cured unless they found the secret cure for the sick.

    Maybe licking virus coated shrines really works? /sarc

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