Iran has 54 confirmed deaths, 34 in Italy and 26 in South Korea.
The reversal of confirmed cases with confirmed deaths in Iran would suggest that Iran and Italy are undercounting confirmed cases. Iran and Italy could have more actual cases of coronavirus than South Korea.
There is a lag in the diagnosis and confirmations of infections by up to two weeks.
China apparently was able to get some pretty good control on the spread of the virus. However, China has basically shutdown schools and businesses in the main province and other areas.
Children now have “returned to school”. However, they are going to school by watching 2.5 hours of locally broadcast classes every day. This means tune to channel XX for your daily schooling.
Japan has shutdown their schools for a month.
China has banned gatherings of more than five people at a time.
South Korea’s Catholic church to halt masses at more than 1,700 locations nationwide for the first time in its 236-year history. Buddhist temples also called off events, while major Christian churches held online services.
The leader of a religious sect in South Korea could face a homicide investigation over some of the coronavirus deaths. Prosecutors have been asked to charge Lee Man-hee, the founder of the Shincheonji church, and 11 others who are accused of hiding the names of some members as officials tried to track patients before the virus spread.
The Israeli national airline, El Al, is reportedly considering firing 1,000 out of its total workforce of about 6,000 because of losses linked to the coronavirus outbreak.
Airports like San Francisco International look far emptier than usual.
The security check-in at SFO had no line at 4pm yesterday. There were travelers but the halls looked nearly empty and the numbers of travelers required virtually no queuing at the security check-in.
SOURCES- John Hopkins Real-Time Coronavirus statistics, interviews, Wall Street Journal, Guardian UK, first-hand observation at SFO.
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
The US did not have anything in its power, no free health care system.
The poor people cannot test, because lack of money.
And so the country cannot track it, and quarantine doesnt work there.
For now China and Italy and Iran look bad, but the worst is still to come i’m afraid.
As a leading wolrd nation based upon capitalism, it has the worlds worst medical infra structure for scenerios like this, a disease like this doesnt look who’s rich or poor, people might favor Trump. But its just sad to see that Obama Care didnt make it (or rather got destroyed later). I guess trump still lives in denial, and so his fans as well.
Keeping in mind that most americans dont know where they live on the globe or where other countries are, they likely have no clue on how fast this spreads.
So these poor bastards will not understand it, till its to late
For 3% of the population this will mean about 9 milion deaths, i hope the militairy takes over to quarantine tomorrow before such a doomsday happens.
Its not ‘extra deadly’ only about 3% of the cases which still is a lot ( normal flu = 0.1%).
Ebola in contrast depending by strain has a kill ratio from 25% to 90%.
So in essence Ebola can break out, but because of the fast kill rate cannt spread.
Mild diseases are better spreaders, and eventually from an evolution standpoint its better to be a mild disease then an ebola (but virussses are not aware of it), though thats how eventually how they will evolve, as without hosts they cannot exist themselves.
I dont rule out that something has been made, but i would doubt that they can engineer the incubation period. Because well simply put our knowlede of the human defence system about new viruses isnt at the point that we understand it all.
My best guess would be something escaped, perhaps tested on animals, but turned out to be to effective to control.
You know, just a couple months ago I got a cold and so did my dad when I brought him down to the hospital for some tests. I guess there was some of that where it was necessary for him to step inside, but if all the waiting room steps in between testing had been out in the parking lot, we might have skipped the infectious illness part.
Goat
It’s strange but every time I hear “conspiracy theory” I think of the CIA and the magic bullet. I wonder why….
I can’t say what’s more likely, an accidental escape or a terrorist attack. I’ve no evidence to calculate the odds. How did you do your math? My gut says intentional though based on the evidence so far.
I agree completely that the chinese deserve a big and sincere thank you from every one else on our planet.
Regards,
Roger
OK. More of a grey kitty event… (smiles)
I just looked up definition of Black Swan.
Do NOT look up definitions of Black Swan…
I don’t know if a viral pandemic counts as a Black Swan.
It’s hardly as though people weren’t discussing the possibility, nay the probability, for decades, if not centuries, leading up to this.
A grey swan at best. More of a beige.
If I see the infection rate of India or Russia remaining in the low single figures, then, and only then, will I get suspicious.
As it is, any other possible suspect is already suffering the spread through their own population, so the story that this is a plot by the Germans or someone just doesn’t hold up.
If it looks like a duck, and walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it’s an elephant.
It’ll be nice if this becomes a world standard.
I mean even after the plague is finished.
That’s a very good point. It’s not at all outside the realm of possibilities for some whack cult to have started this mess. They should have picked a better virus though. Someone didn’t take Death Cult Planning 1301.
It very well could have been that. China jumped on the cleanup so hard right out of the gate. They left practically zero evidence, and they certainly would want to send a message to whoever did it. Wipe out the perpetrator and not give them credit.
Very unlikely. They said this was tracked to a bat virus in eastern China. And if you look at the virus spread map, you will see that the people that live in that area of China have been getting it but not dying. That tells me they have been exposed in the past, or more likely, their ancestors.
Zhejiang 1206 cases 1 death and it has mostly run its course. 1,069 recovered.
Jiangsu 631 cases 0 deaths, 543 recovered.
Fujian 296 cases 1 death, 255 recovered.
Jiangxi 935 cases, 1 death, 850 recovered.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Must be eager to get rid of old age pensioners.
Only 32 coronavirus test made in New York State
The lack of tests for coronavirus is a “national scandal,” says
Dr.Matt Mc Carthy
More than 23,000 in Italy
I think this has to be called a pandemic at this point. It clearly is out of control in enough countries to spread very widely.
And the US had everything in its favor for controlling this at least for a few more months. They should not have let anyone in from China, Japan, Iran, Italy, France, or South Korea weeks ago without quarantine and testing. Iran was claiming 2 cases both death early on. That should have been a red flag that they actually had many more cases. And quarantines should have been for a month for the passengers of the ship, as whatever they were doing on the ship was basically worthless. Should have tracked down everyone from earlier flights from Japan, China, Iran, Korea, Italy and France and, at the very least, tested them. Europe was in trouble from the start. One country or another was bound to mess up in Europe.
Australia too really messed up. Though containment may still be possible there. I am surprised Africa has not had more cases…though I suppose there could be under reporting.
We need to pay people to come to the hospital (or some testing center) if they think they could have it. And the test needs to be free to them.
And we need a million tests. This thing tested positive as SARS. Don’t we have SARS tests?
To get around the hospital waiting room thing, South Korea has instituted drive through COVID-19 testing. You never leave your car, just roll down the window to get some swabs and hand them back to the nice guy in the hazmat suit.
It might come as a surprise to you, but the Iranians for a few thousand years, have been square in the middle of import-export trade between China and both the Mideast and West. So… needless to infer, there are a LOT of Chinese traders coming into and leaving Iran. And, because the Chinese recognize that the American Embargo of Iran’s trade is a huge opportunity for them to ‘cheat it’ and make quite a bit of money, a whole lot of Iranians are invited to China to work out under-the-table deals.
So… no, it is not a surprise at all.
What elephants?
⋅-=≡ GoatGuy ✓ ≡=-⋅
Who wants the demise of Iran and China? Therein lies your answer
Why aren’t you addressing the elephants in the room?!
How did the Coronavirus get to Iran and spread so quickly? How are the Iranians supposed to treat the sick when the US has sanctioned them preventing vital medical supplies to be purchased?
⋅-⋅-⋅ Just saying, ⋅-⋅-⋅
⋅-=≡ Lol ✓ ≡=-⋅
Mostly true. Though the fact that Iran’s death rate has been steadily and consistently dropping as their number of reported cases increases, at least suggests that their initial high death rate was most likely a statistical fluke. A case of large error in a small sample size. It looks increasingly like the death rate will converge around 3-4%.
This is somewhat good news, at least in terms of ruling out worse options. This doesn’t seem to be a more deadly strain.
Still, Iran and Italy seem like the next major epicenters. South Korea still has more cases, but if I’m not mistaken, Iran is rising much faster. Maybe Italy too.
And meanwhile, the number of countries with confirmed cases is also rising. Pretty much all of Western Europe and North America, and most of Asia and the Middle East have cases (as well as Australia). And it’s starting to spread to Eastern Europe, South America and Africa too.
China has had some problems with people doing analogous risky things, but apparently they were arrested, at least once the videos got out.
Downvote wasn’t me, but with the number of cases and deaths changing so rapidly, those statistics don’t mean a lot for Iran (or Italy or South Korea), even if the reported numbers are accurate.
China’s total deaths per total cases has somewhat stabilized but will likely continue to creep up toward 4% – 5% as active cases resolve in death or recovery.
A more important indicator is that daily new cases and deaths have fallen dramatically in China, while global new cases and deaths have begun surging again.
Eventually the Chinese recovery rate should stabilize around 96% – that it hasn’t yet despite the death rate stabilizing is apparently due to a long recuperation period.
In fact, if the virus eventually hits a large portion of the population, the long recovery period may be as big an impact on economies as the slow-down from trying to prevent the spread of the virus.
Oh Lord …
Also this:
https://www.ibtimes.sg/video-people-iran-including-kids-are-being-encouraged-lick-kiss-walls-holy-shrine-show-they-40298
+1 at ya.
Don’t know who or why downvoted this. These are just hard facts based on the published numbers.
Anyway, 8 hours later, Iran confirmed cases are up to 1500, with 66 deaths. Which brings their death rate down to 4.4% – from nearly 20% a few days ago.
edit: And Italy crossed 2000 cases.
Or this could be just another pandemic among several others within the last century. We will know in some 2-3 years, yet I can’t believe this could eventually could come close even to the spanish flu, which still was not a bioweapon. The humans in the western world seem to become increasingly unaccastomed to the very idea of dying due to any infection… 🙂
Roger … I know the US Conspiracy Theories are catchy and fun to propagate, but isn’t it more likely that this virus is literally “the Bug that Got Away”, from a para-military-civilian research facility because of a slip in containment protocols?
I think so.
We can debate the morality and ethics of creating this CV.
We can debate whether the Chinese were on the up-and-up.
But what is painfully clear is that the COVID–19 hit Wuhan apparently first. And because of packing people on commuter vehicles, it very rapidly propagated to the local population. And that China’s draconian containment has substantially helped in containing it, for without the DC, the promiscuity of CV–19 and long incubation time mean that ALL of China, today, would be reeling from its sudden explosion-outbreak.
We can debate the ethics and morality later.
And should.
For now, we must thank the Chinese for taking almost-unprecedented thwarting action to contain the outbreak by cutting off its abundant and ubiquitous transmission pathways.
What this will do to the World Economy is nearly impossible to predict. Clearly, this giant Black Swan event is going to have a dark impact on the near-future economic prosperity of all of us.
⋅-⋅-⋅ Just saying, ⋅-⋅-⋅
⋅-=≡ GoatGuy ✓ ≡=-⋅
Discouraging news, this … because Iran, unlike South Korea, isn’t really a very technologically aggressive / embracing civilization: it it reports a 1000 cases, its just a big old guess. Could be 25× as many. Or higher.
The problem that really screams out is that when that many UNreported cases (say ‘unknown’ or ‘unrecognized’) are walking, talking and sipping tea together, well … the virus is clearly WIDE OPEN for propagation.
And that is not good.
At all.
While shutting down schools definitely stops the kid-to-kid path pretty effectively, the real culprit in a modern society is that adults regularly pack themselves into common-areas. Like commuter busses, trains, ferries. Like grocery stores, food shops, and with a degree of irony that cannot be underestimated, waiting rooms in clinics and hospitals.
Wanna get sick?
Report in to an emergency room.
⋅-⋅-⋅ Just saying, ⋅-⋅-⋅
⋅-=≡ GoatGuy ✓ ≡=-⋅
I am actually encouraged by the numbers from S. Korea. Looks like with extensive testing the infection rate beyond that of the sect is not accelerating without a use of blanket quarantine. With an adequate health care system the spread of the virus can be contained without halting a country. However that of course does not exist everywhere
The only way for it being a bio-weapon to be even remotely plausible would be if, perceiving that the ratio of workers to elderly in China is currently at 8 to 1 but is projected to move to 2 to 1 within 20 years, some in high places decided to start working on a means to get rid of a lot of those elderly, a sort of demographic amputation . . . just in case.
The problem being, they wouldn’t have released it now, but more like in fifteen years, and only after it had been made far more deadly, far more selective, and an antidote/vaccination developed for the old people that are the senior leadership and those they value.
The only way to explain them releasing it now, and in its current state, would be that someone at that SARS research facility, the one 7.5 miles from Wuhan, got infected and carried it home to his or her family.
The only thing that makes this even a little plausible is that the Chinese government, and the culture that it has created and is created by, is not exactly focused on individuals.
Ancient Chinese emperors, when faced with two provinces experiencing starvation and on the verge of revolt, had a tendency to send their army to one province, take all the food, and give it to the other province. Thus revolt was prevented by the first province starving to death, and the second province stayed loyal to the emperor that saved them.
Old news? Try this one that many still recall: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jan/01/china-great-famine-book-tombston
Why would the chinese create a bio-weapon that targets chinese? The racist westerners seem to believe they’re all idiots. Maybe the boyz that created 9-11 are at it again. Here’s another (more likely) theory that fits the evidence:
https://www.unz.com/article/was-the-2020-wuhan-coronavirus-an-engineered-biological-attack-on-china-by-america-for-geopolitical-advantage/
Just as likely it came from a lab studying the virus that was simply lax in safety protocol.
That genetic researcher being prosecuted for treating babies with a HIV cure shows that the Chinese government has perhaps allowed their research scientists to become more than a little lax on safety standards in the pursuit of parity with western scientific academia.
The “extra deadly” isn’t there.. yet. But the extra contagious is, and 2-3% death rate is still significant. The seasonal flu kills tens of thousands with a much lower death rate, so if this spreads as much as the flu, it will kill a lot more. Hopefully this won’t mutate to become more deadly.
I agree. There is no way China, or any nation I can think of, benefits from this. If it was a national bioweapon it was a stupid, accidental one.
I suppose it could be a terrorist bioweapon. If we do have some nutcase death cult or something then there is a feasible story where this is the intended result.
Such groups tend to want to publicly claim their victories though. And we haven’t heard anything. But it wouldn’t be impossible for China to just suppress that news and get rid of the entire cult. They won’t want any copycats of this.
2 new cases in India (one via Italy, one via UAE), after the previous 3 (via China) have recovered.
Iran death rate down to 5.6%.
China death rate up to 3.6%.
China recoveries up to 55%.
If it is, then someone messed up REALLY hard. Because I don’t think (though with the CCP ya never know) this is what they wanted. This looks more like “Aw [CENSORED] we screwed THAT up…”
If it is a bioweapon, they need to try harder because it’s pushing us to really look at eradicating coronaviruses altogether. I still haven’t seen anything that makes me believe this is going to blow up on us and sicken/kill millions or billions. Not yet. Anything thing is possible, though. This is Earth.
That said, if it really did come from a lab, it could certainly be an unfinished bioweapon that wasn’t ready. I have this constant sinking feeling in the back of my mind that countries are always conducting viral and bacterial war research and creating horrible monster diseases that are just waiting to be released by accident (or by some crazy a**hat).
This could be a China made bio-weapon, modified to have a very long incubation period (3-4 weeks) and extra deadly..