COVID-19 Projections By Country and State

Italy’s coronavirus COVID-19 deaths are taking over three days to double and the next double may stretch out to about 9-12 days. This would mean that Italy crisis is slowing down in major way. Italy’s daily deaths seemed to peak 4 days ago. If Italy follows China’s disease trajectory then Italy would have about 18,000 to 25,000 COVID-19 deaths.

The US now has about 1500 tests per 1 million people. This is slightly behind the 2200 tests per 1 million people that Italy had on March 16 (9 days ago).

If the US does as well as Italy in containing the disease from this point, then the US would end with about 1.2 million cases. This is according to some extrapolations by Coolabah Capital Investments.

The USA still has another three to five days of testing to get to a more accurate count of active infections. There will continue to be a sharper increase in cases that reflect testing revealing more cases. The increase in testing identified cases would be happening faster than actual new infections.

New York is the main hotspot in the USA currently. New York is currently on pace to be worse than Italy. However, the US has far more capacity to surge the ventilators for New York and the ICU beds. This should enable New York to end up with 2000-4000 COVID-19 deaths. New Jersey, Louisiana, Michigan and several other starts are trending in the 2-3 day doubling range on COVID-19 deaths. The US could top out at under 10,000 COVID-19 deaths.

A more accurate COVID-19 analysis would be to have infection trends, hospitalization trends and death trends by cities or contiguous metropolitan areas.

I believe the projections of a peak in deaths in three weeks by some epidemiologists is based upon such a city-scale trend analysis. Other epidemiologists believe the US total peak in deaths might take six weeks. This would be the case if other cities fail to achieve disease control and become near New York level or actual New York level hot zones.

There is still a lot that each city and region must do to ensure mitigation and suppression of disease spread. There will be a lot that all areas must do to prepare for the re-emergence of second and third disease waves.

All the places that are having later emerging COVID-19 disease spread in the developed world will have the benefit of more available testing and more accurate testing. There will also be better drugs available for treatment.

Social distance, enhanced hygiene and testing is needed to prevent COVID-19 from get a foothold in a new city and then reaching unchecked growth.

SOURCES- Our World in Data, CNN, Live Wire Markets, NY Times
Written By Brian Wang,