COVID-19 Projections By Country and State

Italy’s coronavirus COVID-19 deaths are taking over three days to double and the next double may stretch out to about 9-12 days. This would mean that Italy crisis is slowing down in major way. Italy’s daily deaths seemed to peak 4 days ago. If Italy follows China’s disease trajectory then Italy would have about 18,000 to 25,000 COVID-19 deaths.

The US now has about 1500 tests per 1 million people. This is slightly behind the 2200 tests per 1 million people that Italy had on March 16 (9 days ago).

If the US does as well as Italy in containing the disease from this point, then the US would end with about 1.2 million cases. This is according to some extrapolations by Coolabah Capital Investments.

The USA still has another three to five days of testing to get to a more accurate count of active infections. There will continue to be a sharper increase in cases that reflect testing revealing more cases. The increase in testing identified cases would be happening faster than actual new infections.

New York is the main hotspot in the USA currently. New York is currently on pace to be worse than Italy. However, the US has far more capacity to surge the ventilators for New York and the ICU beds. This should enable New York to end up with 2000-4000 COVID-19 deaths. New Jersey, Louisiana, Michigan and several other starts are trending in the 2-3 day doubling range on COVID-19 deaths. The US could top out at under 10,000 COVID-19 deaths.

A more accurate COVID-19 analysis would be to have infection trends, hospitalization trends and death trends by cities or contiguous metropolitan areas.

I believe the projections of a peak in deaths in three weeks by some epidemiologists is based upon such a city-scale trend analysis. Other epidemiologists believe the US total peak in deaths might take six weeks. This would be the case if other cities fail to achieve disease control and become near New York level or actual New York level hot zones.

There is still a lot that each city and region must do to ensure mitigation and suppression of disease spread. There will be a lot that all areas must do to prepare for the re-emergence of second and third disease waves.

All the places that are having later emerging COVID-19 disease spread in the developed world will have the benefit of more available testing and more accurate testing. There will also be better drugs available for treatment.

Social distance, enhanced hygiene and testing is needed to prevent COVID-19 from get a foothold in a new city and then reaching unchecked growth.

SOURCES- Our World in Data, CNN, Live Wire Markets, NY Times
Written By Brian Wang,

46 thoughts on “COVID-19 Projections By Country and State”

  1. I strongly disagree.
    Antibiotics have saved many millions of lives in the US and similarly in every country in the world.
    Actually, I think it is underestimated. The world is much more connected than it was 100 years ago. If we had transportation like we do, and the level of urban to rural like we do, but no antibiotics, the deaths from bacterial infections would be staggering.
    Even as it was in 1900, half of US deaths were from bacteria. Pneumonia, Tuberculous, Gastrointestinal Infections, and Diphtheria killed half the population.

    Sterilization is a factor in asthma and allergies. Beyond that? Bunk.

    And our immune systems tend to be too strong. That is why there are so many people with autoimmune related diseases. The repeated culling of a significant fraction of people in plagues of the past has resulted in those with the strongest immune systems surviving and their children. Hunter gatherers did not have immune systems remotely as powerful.
    If we had broad acting equally powerful antivirals and anti parasitics, I believe many diseases would disappear including many we blame “lifestyle” or “genes” for today.
    Most obesity is likely caused by Adenoviruses 5, 36, and 37. When animals are infected they become obese as well. It would be unethical to run that same test on humans, so the only way to clearly prove it, would be to cure it.

  2. “The US population is very unhealthy.”

    This is crucial. Poor health in the developed countries and the US in particular, is largely the result of the sterilization of the human living spaces, followed by the destruction of remnant microbiome by massive ever-increasing use of antibiotics over the last 70yrs.

    Over millions of years, the human microbiome has co-evolved with its human hosts to work with the large intestine — THE LARGEST IMMUNE SYSTEM ORGAN IN THE BODY — to “train” and balance the immune system and thereby promote optimal health.

    “Sterilization” of the human environment — urbanization, “anti-bacterial cleanliness”, and the removal of human feces from the milieu — prevent the once-normative colonization of human children by a full-spectrum-diverse population of microbiota, the normative condition in “primitive” populations living in a state of nature, such as Rain-forest Amerindians and African primitives. Added to this “desertification” of the microbial population in human living spaces, is the decimation by antibiotics of what remains of the once optimal human microbiome.

    This results in a dysfunctional human immune system leading to the entire menu of auto-immune disorders: asthma, rheumatoid arthritis, MS, diabetes, obesity, etc; and intestinal disorders — ulcerative colitis, IBD/IBS, Crohn’s disease, Celiac disease, and C. Difficil. Unseen/unmeasured is reduced immune systems effectiveness in fighting off bacterial infections.

  3. Irish are a race.
    Just because a nationality is defined as a race doesn’t mean it can’t be a white race.

  4. The one person qualified to keep their health statistics was one of the early casualties of the virus. Of course they’re making it all up.

  5. No I THINK this is just Luca. Luca hates America and the west.

    Oh and Jews….dont get him started on the J word.

  6. That was weak your reaching again.

    Plus I dont trust the word of the people who have lied about EVERY major outbreak (how many outbreaks from the same places is it gonna take till they change something?) they have had in the last 3 decades.

  7. I had other screen captures of worldometer data that had Portugal on the list. The NY Times shots just had the labeling obscured. Other World in Data stats had Portugal ranked 20th. I only grabbed the top 7 or so. I have the links where people can see the full list.

  8. In Italy social distancing took 12 days to notably reduce the number of new infections. Here where I am at we are in day 10 of social distancing.

    Yes, lots of diabetes and heart disease. Our dense cities aren’t as numerous or as dense as some other countries. Also our mass transit sucks which is a real bonus for US.

  9. If China contained the problem, why is the virus in Iran, Europe, America, etc?

    This word “contained” what does it mean to you?

  10. Our death count is tripling every four days, despite fairly significant social distancing measures in many places. I don’t think we can assume a lot of inherent resistance. We have plenty of dense cities, old people, heart disease, and diabetes.

  11. Thanks, Brian. I know the numbers, since I’m Portuguese. I was just questioning the reason why Portugal wasn’t included in your graphics.

  12. This, now the expected end of close down is an obvious lie to calm the stock marked, they will not react as strongly to extensions as to an long time shutdown.

    But you can not hide death numbers unless all information is censored and pass trough one mouthpice.

    Now I assume the Chinese date is ballpark accurate as you can not hide that you close down provinces as they would do it it was flareups .

  13. This, organic food might taste better as they grow slower, this might also give more vitamins in vegetables but here preparation has more impact and lack of vitamins and minerals is rarely an problem in the western world outside of fools who only eat junk food or people with conditions.

  14. For some things it is definitely better. I don’t like the “organic” designation. We need a category that is more scientifically useful. I would rather there was one that permitted genetic modification but modifications that add no chemical plant defenses, or reduce nutrients. And none that deceive consumers into thinking they are fresher or riper than they are. And I am not against artificial fertilizers either. I am against poisons of any kind. And organic is often more fresh. Some freshness standard should be present. There should also be no lead, mercury, or cadmium.

  15. Hard to say unless you know where in Michigan the cases are showing up. Disease is like crime: It’s very heterogeneous, you need fine grained numbers to make sense of it.

  16. How would we hide them? County level reporting and most every news agency in America is eager to report deaths.

    In my county our first death was quite literally front page news.

  17. On the flip side the vast majority of the US isn’t as population dense, old, smoking, reliant on mass transit, living in multi-generational housing as Italy.

  18. Me: Iran if forging their data in a transparently obvious way by reporting numbers of infected that would require an exponent of 1.

    You: hush you american nut job. Decolonize math!

  19. R-nought didn’t go to 1 for any other country. Iran hasn’t done anything to make it go to 1.

  20. Portugal is at 3500 cases. 60 deaths. 6 deaths per 1 million. About the level of California in term of cases and deaths but 10 million people instead 40 million. About the official numbers of UK, Denmark and Sweden

  21. Italy started late but now they have a strict national lockdown, with criminal penalties which they enforce. They’ll charge you thousands of euros for nonessential travel. The U.S. isn’t going to do as well as Italy.

  22. As expected a WOKE person that not only hates white people but also hates the US. What a programed mind that is only capable of regurgitating the BS from your liberal arts degree.

  23. The US population is very unhealthy. Only one country with over 200,000 people is more obese:
    We did mostly end trans fat. And there is a lot of organic food now eaten. We don’t drink or smoke as much as Europe. But we also eat truckloads of fried chicken, bacon, cheese puffs, and all sorts of unhealthy junk food.
    And carbonated beverages we drink at very high rates. Argentina and Mexico might be slightly higher, but most countries are far lower than us.
    And the stocked up food many people bought is not very good. I saw lot of people getting large packages of noodle ramen. Very little nutrition in that.
    I think it is still hard to say where we will end up. And I suspect the biggest danger is “reopening for business” too early. We could easily end up with a massive second wave.

  24. Pulling the race card doesn’t explain why Iran seemingly bucks the trend. But what race do you think are Iranians anyway?

  25. I’m from Spain, and I can tell you that our infection numbers are useless. They don’t have enough test capacity, so only the very ill are tested.

    The only numbers reliable are hospitalizations and deaths.

  26. I don’t consider them to be useful. Look to Italy, Spain, France, Germany, UK and USA for reliable numbers.

  27. in all honesty anyone know what is going on with Michigan? Louisiana grew because of Mardi Gras but why is Michigan going up so much?

  28. “We’re Iran and we didn’t do any quarantines and we lick the shrines but hey- exponent of 1 is a thing. Sometimes R-nought just goes to 1. True story!”

  29. Iran has basically a constant number of new cases day to day. That’s a strong sign that they are making their numbers up. Unless the exponent for corona in Iran is 1 which would be most coincidental and unlike every other nation with lots of cases.

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