Europe and USA Have Similar

The USA and Europe have a similar scale situation with cases of Coronavirus COVID-19 per million people. The US had about 20,000 new cases. Europe collectively has more new cases and more deaths.

Europe has nearly double the US population.

Europe has about 400,000 cases and nearly 30,000 deaths.

TheUSA has 164,000 cases and 3148 deaths.

The situations are similar in terms of a disease with exponential spread and growth. The cases per million people are very close. Europe has more deaths but Europe has an older population.


79 thoughts on “Europe and USA Have Similar”

  1. At eastern half of the EU the BCG vaccine is mandatory for everybody. It seems, and some research reinforce it that BCG vaccination generally makes immune system stronger and give some advantages against COVID too. If we see the numbers, it fits to the theory.

  2. I think you completely missed the point of DrPat’s 1st post. And whether he didn’t get the misunderstanding, or just due to his sarcastic tendency, he’s not helping to clear it up.

    He wasn’t claiming that Europe was only x1.5 from US, nor was he disagreeing with everyone else’s claims that Europe is more than x2 of US.

    He was quoting DICANOMI’s claim, disagreeing with it, and pointing out the source of his error:

    US: 327M
    Europe: 741M (more than x2)
    EU: 512M (x1.5) <— source of error

  3. Thats right. The last US census was in 2010 and it was 308,000 and the latest estimate 329,000 in 2019. Normally this next census would have taken place on April 1 first but probably won`t happen until May or June because of corvid 19. The US population growth rate has slowed over the past few years because woman are not having as many children and because the number of deaths has increased for the last two years where the average life expectancy has decreased to 78 years. Due to the fact that you don`t have medicare and your medical system is so expensive most can`t afford proper medical care.

  4. Google: Population of Europe

    741.4 million

    Google: Population of USA

    327.2 million

    Calculator: 327.4 x 2

    654.8 < 741.4

  5. Perhaps, but that can also be skewed by the rate of spread.

    Interestingly the “count back x-y days” method I think offers a useful predictor, if you look at US data there are now 216,000 reported cases with 5,102 deaths, count back 14 days and there were 9,197 cases . . .?? That would be over 50% fatality rate?! I think that reveals that in the US diagnosis is currently happening very late, If we go with say 3% fatality rate we need to count back just 2 days. This would mean actual infected numbers are far higher in the US than test numbers indicate – over 20 times as large. People may be ignoring their symptoms, perhaps out of fear of the financial cost of landing in hospital, as (from reports I’ve seen) usually insurance isn’t going to cover much of that cost.

  6. Yesterday they had 12 ICU patients out of 1220, very close to 1%. As it happens, the average of 0.8% and 1.2% is also 1%. May be just coincidence, but I think ICU count is a decent predictor of expected deaths. There was a claim that COVID ICU survival rate is very low. Don’t know if that’s true, but if it is, the ICU count should be a good predictor.

  7. The dumb is all yours, there’s an average lag of about two weeks between diagnosis and death, so that simple sum is meaningless in terms of the CFR, a more accurate estimate of the fatality rate would be deaths up to today divided by the number diagnosed as infected 14 days ago. For Iceland that’s 2/250 = 0.8%, but if the diagnosis is done earlier the lag could be up to 18 days: 2/161 = 1.2% fatality rate.

  8. The population of Europe 741,000,000 people crowded into an area smaller than than USA. The US has 330,000,000 people. I`d say the Europeans have done pretty good under the circumstances.

  9. Europe has had a large number of cases for a longer time. Remember when Germany had no deaths for what felt like weeks. Well, people are dying now. Much less than the other guys. But that is because they tested like crazy. Got people isolated quickly. If we tested like that, we would have a good chance of keeping the numbers down.
    In general, European dwellings are closer together and smaller. This makes it easier to spread. Public transit also propels the spread. Then there are the kiss greetings. Demographics? I don’t think it is very different. Europeans smoke more. That could easily be a factor.

  10. Having more tests doesn’t make the disease progress any faster. It’s still early days for Iceland.

  11. “Fatality rate is 0.19% per Iceland’s data (currently best in the world)”
    Evidence supporting that claim please.

  12. Two caveats with Iceland’s data:
    — They still have a relatively small number of cases.
    — More significantly, timing: they’re only a month in. Two weeks ago they only had 200 cases.

    I think a better indicator is their number of intensive care patients, which is close to 1%. That’s closer to the Diamond Princess statistic, IIRC. And even that is likely an underestimate, because some of the milder cases tend to deteriorate over a period of a few weeks.

    edit: Germany had a similar CFR back when they were at 1200 cases. Now their CFR is 1.1%. I expect their data should be pretty good too. But they seem to an outlier, and Iceland may be as well.

    Btw, South Korea’s CFR, who were on the low end as well, is now approaching 1.7%.

  13. I hear this proposal a lot. Seems to me it discounts the reality of the infected blending with the group.

  14. The net deaths in America may actually decline as a result of less interaction between cars and individuals. BTW does anyone know if the gang bangers are social distancing?

  15. I assume your numbers are correct. And I presume the Chinese distort the facts to suit their needs and goals. Like everybody. The only difference is what you can get away with. China is in the unique position of being both admired and detested. The detesters are in the minority. My personal illusion
    is that this whole flu pandemic is being run to empower the anti Chinese faction/pro American.

  16. Just an unpleasant observation here – full speed ahead is likely the moral way to do it from a utilitarian perspective. Less people die in the long run due to less economic dislocation/damage.
    And if you value the life of a 25 year old more than the life of an 80 year old, even more.
    If you spend 10 million dollars to add 10 years of life to a 75 year old, it quickly becomes apparent after you crunch the numbers that you could have saved a lot of life-years much less expensively by doing other things with that money.

  17. more like the special olympics, because social norms and political calculations are playing the biggest role.

  18. Fatality rate is 0.19% per Iceland’s data (currently best in the world) with slack/spare/functioning medical capacity/response. If population is 330 million and 2/3 get it. Note: 99% of fatalities are over 70 years old.


    It could be a lot more than that if the hospitals are overwhelmed, however.

    EDIT: And there is a lot of permanent lung damage also

  19. I’ve heard a health official comment that the absolute numbers are more relevant for predicting the spread and progression, since cases tend to spread in local clusters. So the size of the rest of the population isn’t much of a factor.

    But the cases per capita matter more for how well the healthcare system can cope. A larger population would tend to have a larger healthcare system, which can handle more patients.

    I would add that the locality of the spread depends on how much travel and intermixing there is. If there are travel bans and quarantines, it’ll be more local than if there’s free travel. But even with free travel there would be local clusters.

    And also, the more localized the spread is, the less relevant the per capita numbers are even for the healthcare system capacity (unless you take local per capita). The capacity tends to be spread out, so even if it’s large in total, the local capacity is more limited. And unless the patients are spread across the system, the local services can collapse well before the whole system does. Which is what we’re seeing in Italy vs the rest of Europe or the world, and in New York vs the rest of USA.

  20. Stockholm was seeded intensely by ski tourists coming back from northern Italy.
    The airports were wide open without any border control. (they still are).
    There were reports of coughing and sneezing passengers running around everywhere without restrictions or actions.

  21. The reason is the authorities have shed all capabilities than once were. The health care system had collapsed before Covid-19. Mass immigration is the elephant in the room. If you increase population 10% in 20 years with people from 3rd world countries without scaling up infrastructure, the result is chaos. The immigrants need a lot of health care and they don’t integrate and become employed contributors. The politicians eliminate all war and disaster stocks of equipment and convert everything to a under-dimensioned just-in-time process. They also put incompetent politicians in charge of operations everywhere instead of engineers. The result was predictable.

  22. Any particular reason a country that is fairly wealthy and allegedly well run like Sweden would just give up and let the virus go ahead?

  23. No, your answer might be “I don’t know”, but you shouldn’t project your lack of knowledge onto everyone else.

  24. Saw a post that we are all becoming democrats now. We sit at home, don’t go to work and wait for the check to arrive in the mail. Too true!

  25. The 3% is completely bogus. Not based on any facts out there; none! The real answer is, “we just don’t know.”

  26. Not even close to double the US population in the EU plus UK, more like 1.5x,

    There’s your problem. You’ve looked up the EU, but everyone else, including the original article you are commenting on, are about Europe, of which the EU is just a part.

  27. It would be completely in character for China to be using this pandemic to get in a bit of genocide against groups like the Uyghurs. If I had to guess, I’d guess that’s what the Chinese would be hiding: That they’re just letting it run wild in populations they want rid of.

  28. Probably two thirds of the population of the US would become infected, that would happen in less than 2 months. With medical facilities not overwhelmed fatality rates are around 3%, over whelmed likely double that, so 0.667 x 330,000,000 x 0.06 = 13,200,000 fatalities in the US.

  29. From the Darkest-before-the-Dawn:
    “…Goldman Sachs economists wrote today: 
    We are making further significant adjustments to our GDP and employment estimates. We now forecast real GDP growth of -9% in Q1 and -34% in Q2 in qoq annualized terms (vs. -6% and -24% previously) and see the unemployment rate rising to 15% by midyear (vs. 9% previously). However, we have upgraded our expectations for the recovery after midyear, with a 19% qoq annualized GDP gain in Q3 (vs. 12% previously). Our estimates imply that a bit more than half of the near-term output decline is made up by year end and that real GDP falls 6.2% in 2020 on an annual-average basis (vs. 3.7% in our previous forecast).
    Unlike the great recession, when the situation kept getting worse month after month, the worst economic impact will probably be early, in the months of April and May. Although there is a concern that missed payments will ripple through the system leading to financial problems. This was the purpose of the $2+ Trillion disaster relief package – to help people pay their bills including rent and mortgage (Note: This was NOT a “stimulus” package, this was disaster relief).

    My current guess is the economy will start growing – slowly – in June (maybe July). But growth will likely be slow at first as people put their toes in the water. I don’t expect a “V” shaped recovery unless there is an effective treatment or a vaccine, then growth will pickup quicker…”

  30. Sweden may not have been seeded with the virus as much as Italy, Iran, and New York City. Tourists and workers from Wuhan moved rapidly around the world, but some destinations were more favored than others.

  31. Comparing deaths per million and case fatality rates you see that the US experience is different from Italy and Spain. New York was seeded with the virus early, just like northern Italy. Thousands of tourists a day were flooding Europe and North America during those early censored days of Wuhan.

  32. European populations were already melting away with very low birth rates.

    The very high death rates in Europe from this Chinese virus will not help.

  33. People get sick. Things happen. Be responsible for yourself and your family. Stop blaming government for everything. We have become a nation of whiners that believe in the nanny-state. It’s too bad.

  34. If by superior you mean ~2 yrs. Not a lot, but more. This does not explain the vast difference in death rates Europe to U.S. and within Europe.

  35. Socialized medicine could be part of it. US has far more ICU beds/100,000 people than the vaunted healthcare systems of Europe.

  36. China constantly lies and they’ve expelled top American media from their country for the first time in decades — what are they hiding?

    When China chose to respond to the outbreak, they eventually had a really good response. However, that doesn’t stop them from lying about their numbers.

  37. Try to stay safe. Wash your hands regularly, don’t touch your face, avoid sick people and people in general. Try not to be sick when the surge of sick people all show up at the hospital.

  38. What matters is per capita cases. For example if we compare USA to Italy and adjust for population then Italy would have 5.5 times as many cases and deaths then you would get this:

    Italy: 505,000 cases, 57,500 deaths
    USA: 164,000 cases, 3,100 deaths

  39. But both USA and UK moved to force social distancing much earlier than Italy so neither will be just like Italy. Italy was initially many sick visitors spreading the disease combined with no social distancing.

    Parts of the USA will look like Italy (NYC) but other parts (where I live) are now on a track to double their cases every 15 days which is nothing at all like Italy.

  40. I am confident that superspreader events like the sect in South-Korea played a role in Italy. WHO is still denying virus can become airborne, but that is just semantics because aérosols can easily spread virus over longer distances in closed spaces.

  41. You will be able to see that as time passes by looking at Sweden. Here, they do very very little and what they do is 3 or more weeks too late. They don’t try to test anyone but health care personnel so the figures for number of cases are way wrong. Instead, look at death rates for some kind of comparable metrics.

    I saw one attempt at an analysis where they plotted death rates. The curves were normalized to start when number of deaths reached 10. The graph was flatter than Spain but steeper than Italy so if that trend holds, it will get worse than Italy.

  42. If they have testing down to 5 minutes… that means they could have a virus green zone party… everybody who passes the test gets to form hurds inside the green zone…

  43. Many conspiracy theorists are saying that China had 10-40 more cases than reported. Knowing culture of east asians, I am convinced that their data make perfect sense, is not faked and those countries did(so far) and will do best job in handling the virus. Most disciplined people/cultures on Earth. When local authorities said to them stay at home I am sure that people were listening. In the West weeks after such announcements we still have tons of people gathering without reason, pastors inviting thousands of people, tons of unnecessarily meetings in parks, people organizing home parties, sping breakers etc. There wasn’t and won’t be equivalent of this in China

    That’s one of the main reasons why China and Korea dealt with it (from the day it started in particular country) and flattened the curve much faster, comparing with Western countries. Average people are simply smarter and they have also exponentially smarter decision makers. Only hope for West is full Lockdown with soldiers on streets hunting and scaring those spring brakers types who can’t stay at home for pathetic few weeks or even month or 2.

  44. Assumung you’re american it’s rather silly that you do not know population of your own country. Not 360+ but 328 million. If you’re not, it’s still silly. Data it easily available in the web from many credible sources, updated yearly, including US government, not from some random dudes like me.

    And those yearly updates include all new births(minus deaths) + immigrants, it’s not that hard, so it’s for sure not bigger than 330 in March 2020. Population is growing(mainly thanks to immigrants) by around 2 million per year, so at the end of 2020 it may approach 330, but corona will for sure slow this down, so this year we may see very little growth from immigrants.

    They(authorities) could be off by few tens of thousands due to illegal traffic from south but no way that in as well developed country as USA guys responsible for demographics data are off by 30 million LOL, super ridiculous statement from you.

    Second, Europe population is 746,4 million, more than twice as big as US. It really isn’t that hard to google it, it takes about 10 seconds to check.

  45. Another factor is the degree of aging of the population:
    Italy has the most aged population in Europe, i.e. % of elderly = 65+ (or better: % 65+ / % children/adolescents = 15-).
    And the 2nd most aged population after Japan, which is by far the most aged population in the world.
    Why is Japan not in the table? Would be interesting for comparison.
    Germany btw is about the 3rd most aged, after Italy. Germany is doing relatively well.
    Those are interesting factors for comparison.

  46. The number of cases is misleading, because it reflects the ones who actually tested positive, not all the infected ones. To answer all the readers wondering about differences in the fatality rate: in this Imperial College study published on March 28th the real number of infected people in Italy and Spain is estimated to be about 6 millions; presumably, underecounting is happening in every other country too (that’s the reason one gotta stay home: you don’t know who has it). With denominators increasing by orders of magnitude, the fatality rate looks very different.

  47. If you are going to make comparisons, you also need a timeline. The UK infection and mortality rate, for example, is not really lower than Italy, its the same as Italy + 14 days. You can only see that when you plot the curves over each other. A simple table tells you very little, as you cannot see things like the lag between rise in infections and rise in mortalities. The US is most likely UK + 7 days, so just moving into the rapid growth phase.

  48. Europe has also had more testing, in some places, but not in others. US states have also had very different rates of testing. Comparing numbers of cases in such circumstances is foolish.

  49. There are easier and cheaper ways to estimate the US population than a Census. They use sampling and statistics. The Census really is not any more accurate, it is just what they thought they had to do when the Constitution was written. But it has been quite beneficial for genealogy. That is, the ones we retain.

  50. Europe has well over 2x US population. About 747,522,988. US population is roughly 330,518,473. Basically, Europe has 2 1/4 times the US population.
    West coast and east coast the US has a lot of density. In between, not nearly as much and especally inland in the west it is prity sparse. Europe on the other hand has towns and cities all over.

  51. The 2010 Census reported 308.7 million people. I checked several sources, most are giving 330 million for America’s current population (30 March 2020).

  52. Not even close to double the US population in the EU plus UK, more like 1.5x, in which case Europe is getting hit 30-50% harder. 360+ million versus 550-600 million in the EU plus UK. US census has not happened in 10 years the 327 million is way low (thats the 2010 number), more like 360-400.

  53. A HUGE caveat to data tables like this is calling a column “cases” which (though not described) probably indicates “tested positive”. That itself means completely different things: in South Korea, where they tested every person possibly contacted until no new cases were found, you could say that is people who were infected. In Iceland where they tested EVERY PERSON, you would say that is people who were infected. In the US, where the number tested positive is FAR less than the number infected, “cases” is more like the most non-rigorous manner of sampling you can imagine. In NY State where 1/2 of all tests administered lately (sometime to a corpse, other times to a new symptomatic, other times to a hopefully-not-infected doctor) are positive, can you imagine that the # of positive tests is a comparable # to Minnesota (1/10 of tests come back positive) or South Korea (<1% come back positive). So, like statisticians of days gone by, we are reduced to counting “deaths”. Oh but in Italy, there some evidence
    that many are dying that are not correctly counted as Covid-19 deaths. If you don’t think that would happen in the US, you have not met your local (often elected-but-not-medically-qualified) county coroner.
    So take these stats with boulders of salt.

  54. It hasn’t been spreading here long enough for a lot of people to have progressed from “infected” to “dead”. We got a late start thanks to travel restrictions, and then squandered it due to bureaucratic incompetence.

  55. US has lots of old people. Even if there is a bit more of them in Europe it doesn’t begin to explain the 10 times difference in mortality. Lets not forget how it spread in US nursing homes..

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