Tomas Pueyo makes the case that far stronger coronavirus measures are needed today and they should only last a few weeks. There shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.
We need to have testing, case isolation and social distancing at the same time for a few weeks. This could prevent the medical system collapse. We then ramp up our medical drugs and build up ventilators and capacity at a rapid pace, for the next surge which would be expected in October or November. We buy time but we have to use the time to fully prepare for the next time that will be coming.
If we know where the virus is, we can target these places only. This is the basics of how East Asia Countries were able to control this outbreak without national social distancing that is increasingly essential in other countries.
We have social distancing now but we need abundant testing, contact tracing and case isolation.
Brian Wang also believes that hourly hand washing -hand cleaning is needed at places that cannot shutdown like hospitals, military bases, prisons etc… An MIT Study model indicates that cleaning hands every 82 minutes would reduce disease spread from a global airport model. Hourly handwashing-sanitizer cleaning with announcements at any public places that need to stay open would be simple to follow.
If it does run out of control, suppression is still the attempt to take the edge off of the medical system overrun. Try to keep the death rate at 0.6% instead of 5.0% where none of those needing ventilation die.
Suppression would get us:
Fewer total cases of Coronavirus
Immediate relief for the healthcare system and the humans who run it
Reduction in fatality rate
Reduction in collateral damage
Ability for infected, isolated and quarantined healthcare workers to get better and back to work. In Italy, healthcare workers represent 8% of all contagions.
For individuals, practice hourly hand cleaning when you are anywhere there might be infected surfaces or infected people. You now must assume other people are infected for the next 2-3 weeks.
SOURCES – Tomas Pueyo, Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand – Imperial College of London, Risk Analysis – Hand‐Hygiene Mitigation Strategies Against Global Disease Spreading through the Air Transportation Network
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com. Brian Wang is working with a startup working on coronavirus mitigation