India Coronavirus Lockdown of 1.38 Billion People

India has locked down the entire country of 1.38 billion people.

The slums and shantytowns of India are high-density populations that would be very vulnerable to the disease. There is no way to provide the needed ventilators and medical care for that population. The main advantage is that most of the population is fairly young. India has 260 million people over the age of 50. A majority of adult males in India smoke. 270 million people smoke in India. About 29% of the population.

If the death rate in India was 4% for people over 50, then this would be 10 million people.

The higher than 1% death rate would be because the very ill coronavirus victims would not be saved in the event of widespread disease.

Modi has said that the next 21 days will see if India has to rebuild for 21 years.

Written By Brian Wang,

23 thoughts on “India Coronavirus Lockdown of 1.38 Billion People”

  1. Nah he’s right. I remember the early AIDS PR campaigns and they definitely were all about telling everyone that they were at huge risk and that there would be a vast death toll across society.
    Which there wasn’t.

  2. True, there are many issues for them, but this plus some of that other stuff equals a humanitarian crisis. This could kill a few million in India.

  3. There’s a strong theory behind why COVID-19 will spread widely in the population. You don’t have to use intravenous drugs or engage in risky sex or get a lot of blood transfusions to get it. The vulnerable population is everyone who breathes. That means it will spread until we reach herd immunity, or unless we contain it. With an R0 of ~4, a majority of the population will get it.

  4. Spreads differently is a dramatic understatement to say the least – STD’s are in a completely different class of infectious spread to the likes of the common cold, flu and COVID 19.

  5. Lord help them, with that population density it will spread fast no matter what they do. A lot of people will die because of a lack of respirators per population ratio, kind of what NY City is facing. My thoughts and best wished go out to them just like anyone facing this mess. It is long overdue for world governments to apply pressure on China to shut down this disease factory they seem to be running. They’re coming out with new models faster than Tesla.

  6. This might help tech contractor employment in the US if India gets hit….

    The Indians always have some illegal racket going on to secretly off source contractor jobs in the United States by pretending the work is being done in the United States and then sending the companies files to a team of people over in Indian to do the work instead…

    personslly I’m sick of all their stupid baitAnd switch scams…use American contractors as bait and Then switch to Indians in the tech contractor job market… mean while the American contractor keeps
    Getting forced to keep hopping around between jobs like a beggar from India because they keep Switching them and stealing their jobs… That’s what happens when they corner the staffing positions for placement of tech contractors,,, they can be evil dickheads to Americans and then switch the jobs to their homeboys in India

  7. It seems like you are well informed.. Still you create wrong assumptions.. Your mind is blinded.. you fool

  8. …The campaign began on the cover of Life magazine in 1985: ”Now No One Is Safe From AIDS.” Federal officials said that AIDS could be worse than the black plague, and they conducted national television, radio and direct-mail campaigns aimed at heterosexuals. The officials wildly overestimated the number of AIDS cases…

    People didn’t like the outcomes if they did nothing, so they altered their behavior and thus avoided the upper bound projection. The model isn’t the thing that’s was incorrect, just your understanding of models, what the campaigns based on the projections was saying and reality in general.

    The goal isnt to predict what people will do, but predict what will happen if they do x or y.

  9. The number of cases in Brazil is rising exponentially and we all know the equator runs right through Brazil.

  10. Climate is not the factor. It’s closeness to others, and timing and frequency of that closeness. How R0 works. If people are close and interact, doesn’t matter if you are on the north pole or the jungles of Borneo.

  11. yes, will be interesting as the science is scant. In a lab, the virus will “die” (it isn’t alive) under certain circumstances. So the virus dies in 1 days versus 5 days on the petri dish. But life isn’t a lab. Especially in extremely populated areas. Where people may have many confounding factors (like breathing bad air pollution). Where superstition and rumors run amok, where sanitation is an after thought. Karma.

    I think the intention here is good, but enforcement? Let’s see…..

  12. Thank you Captain obvious. You have a great grasp of situation. By definition, a case can ONLY be confirmed by test, and not everyone gets tested. Hence, you are now caught up with the rest of the class.

  13. Why? Yes a lot of people could die in India, but it’s just one more thing to add to the list for them. Tigers, abject poverty, neighbor’s feces in my bath water, every other communicable disease we don’t fight in our country, and now another bad flu outbreak. It sucks to be poor, in a poor country. Welcome to the middle ages where life had lite value because it could be snuffed out a million ways. Look at the U.S. attitude to various flu pandemics 60 years ago. You made it thru, or you didn’t. Life! I think most Indians have the same attitude.

  14. The way I see is that confirmed cases are more related to number of tests applied than the real number of cases.

  15. It varies more, but in the northern parts, yes it is very similar to Iran. Those areas so happen to be the most populated parts as well. Nepal will also be interesting. The Indian-Nepalese border is one of the densest populated parts of the the world and has a Iran like climate.

  16. I would have guessed, based on nothing more than looking at the map, that significant parts of India have similar climate to Iran.
    Am I incorrect?

  17. Now this is where things could get really ugly. Think Italy is bad, you have seen nothing if this goes nuts in India.

  18. Many of these models are academic; an exercise in geometric expansion, not true epidemiological projections. These are incorrect because garbage in, garbage out. I give you AIDS in the 80’s: The campaign began on the cover of Life magazine in 1985: ”Now No One Is Safe From AIDS.” Federal officials said that AIDS could be worse than the black plague, and they conducted national television, radio and direct-mail campaigns aimed at heterosexuals. The officials wildly overestimated the number of AIDS cases, although they were more conservative than Oprah Winfrey, who warned that a fifth of heterosexuals could be dead by 1990. I know this isn’t AIDS, and it spreads differently, but I’m speaking about model projections. Garbage in….

  19. India is pretty hot and humid, so it will be interesting to see how easily the virus spreads there. So far they have very few official cases.

    India has stopped international flights and rail travel. They should completely stop border crossings as well.

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