New York and USA Surging Coronavirus Hospitalizations

Yesterday, Nextbigfuture was projecting US and New York Coronavirus hospitalization growth as about 2430 but instead grew 4323.

New York had 3039 more hospitalizations on March 26. NY increased from 3805 to 6844. New York was very close to doubling hospitalizations in one day. UPDATE- Covidtracking was wrong on New York hospitalizations.

UPDATE- NY Gov. Cuomo’s Mar 27 brief indicates that New York is getting slowing COVID-19. It was three days to get from about 3000 to 7000 hospitalizations in New York.

New York has 20,000 hospital beds and plans to add 40,000 in the next few weeks.

New York needs more beds and needs the growth of cases to slow. New York could be 2-37-14 days from filling the 20,000 beds that they have. Medical staff from other places in the US will have to get to New York.

A lot of beds, staff and equipment will be needed next week.

Ten thousand beds at Manhattan hotels will be used to house non-critical patients and will also hold medical workers.

University dorms in the New York City metropolitan area could add 29,000 more hospital bed

California surged 800 cases from 3200 to 4000 cases.
The US grew about 10,000 cases from 75000 to 85000.

The US hospitalizations tracking via covidtracking. NOTE: This data had accuracy issues.

           hospitalizations  daily growth     Actual Hospitalization  Actual Growth
Mar 21        1964                
Mar 22        2554                590
Mar 23        3325                771
Mar 24        4468               1143
Mar 25        6136               1668
Mar 26        8570 est           2430 est             10459           4323
Mar 27       12120 est           3550 est             18000 new est   7551 new est
Mar 28       17000 est           5000 est             28000 new est  10000 new est

SOURCES – Worldometers, COVID Tracking
Written By Brian Wang,

39 thoughts on “New York and USA Surging Coronavirus Hospitalizations”

  1. I am working. I am just doing it from home. A lot of people working for the same company are working from home. Not everyone can unfortunately.

    The Equation is simple:

    N = E ^ Kt. Where K is the multiplication factor.

    Reduce K to under 1 and the epidemic fades away. Keep K over 1 and it spreads.

    The actually equation is a bit more complicated since as the number of infected people grows K diminishes.

    The point is social distancing works because the equation says so.

  2. Trump is able to do tariffs – and has, and will if necessary to protect US domestic oil producers.

    Low extraction cost doesn’t change the fact that Iran losing half its export income would/will be devestating.

  3. Bamboo may not grow to the sky – but some diseases can run through much of the population if you don’t take steps to restrain them.

    Fortunately, we have been and it is looking like the exponential growth may be slowing – assuming less hard hit states aren’t being complacent.

    New York is paying the price for being complacent and slow to react, with 10x the cases (20x per-capita) and 7x the deaths of California. They failed to prune their bamboo early enough, and oh, how it grew…

  4. 4.8 million (or whatever) people removed from public health budget, and 4 times that added because they were healthy last year but now have permanent lung damage.

    This may or may not affect a whole range of things, but I can’t see it reducing the health costs.

  5. The very NAME of “social distancing” is ridiculous. The social aspect is a complete red herring. It’s PHYSICAL distancing that matters.

  6. Hmm – so US frackers will be terribly hurt by the low price, but Iran – which depends heavily on oil exports – won’t?

    Nope, no contradiction there.

    No one expects Iran won’t “survive” the oil price war. But you were just bragging how Iran will thrive this year while the US suffers… apparently completely ignorant of what the oil price war is doing to Iran.

    And aren’t you the one that believes the US govt is controlled by Big Oil? So why wouldn’t Trump slap a tariff on imported oil to protect domestic producers from Russia/OPEC dumping?

  7. I buy at CostCo, and the price was $2.10 Monday here in AZ. Just checked online – it’s down to $1.99 at that same station, and many ‘ordinary’ stations are down around $2.55.

    This is probably a mix of low demand and the oil war.

    *update* Premium is $2.29 at CostCo.

  8. I’m working from home 100% now, kids are not in school. People can socially distance and also keep working.

    Social distancing is good, best to do it if you can. I wish that CA would have told companies that if possible they should socially distance/alternate in office days two weeks earlier.

  9. I live in the Intermountain West. 95% of tests in our state come back negative. Vast majority of this is flu in my state. Bamboo does not grow to the sky.

  10. Dude, are you mentally handicapped? I really feel sorry for you and take pity on you if you’re not. I don’t know what else could explain your level of…stupidity and/or insanity? You should check in with a mental health professional.

  11. Virus typically attenuate as they spread. Fewer and fewer low-risk people will get sick as time goes on. High risk folks need to act accordingly.

  12. “Most professional doctors on the planet”? What does that even mean? They wear white lab coats and little blue hats? Wash their hands more? Gobbledygook!

  13. You can end up in this hospital for tons of things. This is just one more to add to the list. We are acting like this is the only threat. It’s almost as if it’s vacuum, lacking anything else out there. Just Wuhan Virus.

  14. 72% of Iran’s exports are crude oil, which has fallen from around $60/barrel to well under $25/barrel…

    Just saying…

  15. You are correct. However, it appears that there is advice from some experts that doctors to use the Plaquenil/azithromycin combo on patients at risk of dying rather than wait for trials to complete.

    It is not something doctors are likely to be dosing every COVID-19 patient with yet, but it does appear to be something they can and will use.

  16. Is there a standard definition of “critical case”, such that we should think these numbers are all comparable?

    And wouldn’t it make sense to use “per capita” numbers for both sets of statistics? The numbers are a lot less comparable between countries when you look at that instead of number of critical cases.

  17. No, I know my facts, not the garbage I’m fed by some deranged and uninformed commentators. There are multiple clinical trials of a range of therapeutics. None are complete yet. There have been two small trials of combination therapies using hydroxychloroquine. One was positive and one caused symptoms to worsen. That’s why large trials are needed and underway.

  18. not at all.
    if you got covid-19 and are asymptomatic that means you can, at some time period within the infection, spread to others. That’s why people are not considering this ‘only another kind of flu’ with a candyass spread rate Ro of 1ish; few care about getting their ‘shots’. If you are covid-19 with a Ro of 2.5 to 2.8+ you are spreading this vaccine-free killer far and wide. The value is finding out how many die versus infected (even if infected is asymp only).

  19. This is nothing like a regular cold, and it’s nothing like seasonal flu. It’s a killer. Left unchecked it will kill between 2 million and 10 million Americans.

  20. You are deluding yourself if you think there are meds to help affected people avoid hospital care. If there were meds available, then doctors in Italy and Spain would not be choosing which patients to save. We may eventually identify effective meds, but as of now, we don’t have any for this virus.

  21. Of course, as with all issues, quality/ credibility/ availability of the data is ALL:
    “…They argue that many more people have had Covid-19 than we think, the number of asymptotic cases is very large, and the fatality of the virus is much lower than we think, perhaps not much worse than the flu. But their required rate of asymptomatic cases is implausibly high. The best evidence (FT) for asymptomatic cases ranges from 8 to 59 percent, and that is based on a number of samples from China and Italy, albeit imperfect ones. Icelandic data — they are trying to sample a significant percentage of their population — suggest an asymptomatic rate of about 50 percent. To be clear, none of those results are conclusive and they all might be wrong….”
    Methinks that the US has one of the highest proportion of ‘testing attendance’ so therefore the confirmed cases are closer to ‘right’. Just sayin’

  22. 300 million people * 0.8 Infected * 0.02 ICU = 4.8 million = Medicare Funding problem solved because all the old people are dead.

  23. That’s just the Democratic Party that wants people to believe it doesn’t work because trump endorsed its use…. They were also trying to pretend it kills people too because some dummies swallowed several pills for curing a 50 gallon tank of Pissy fish water from fish disease… thinking it was the same as malaria medicine…

  24. Tell that to the person in Florida who was on their death bed. They took the combination drug and in one day their condition improved. A few days later, continuing to take the drugs, they were discharged virus free. Please stop passing inaccurate information.

  25. I know a spouse of a friend who is an ER nurse who came down with the virus. After being home treated for a few days they developed inflammation in their lungs and were sent to their hospital where they were diagnosed with a beginning case of pneumonia.

    So the ER nurse is at their own hospital and unsurprisingly is receiving great care. First thing they did was start dosing with hydroxychloroquine and zithromax.

  26. The effects of social distancing should start to show itself soon. New COVID-19 infected people should be questioned as to how they believe they got infected. If the infection is still growing exponentially we need to know why.

  27. Ranking of Country by Smokers per Capita:
    #15   China          2043.0
    #33   Germany   1599.5
    #40   Spain          1499.0
    #41   Italy           1493.3
    #63   France       1089.9
    #69   USA   1016.6
    #74    Iran           936.5

    coronavirus critical cases by country. 3/27/2020:
    #1 Spain       4,165   
    #2 Italy        3,612   
    #3 France    3,375   
    #4 Iran        2,893   
    #5 USA         2,122   
    #6 China      1,034

  28. critical cases by country. 3/27/2020:

    #1 Spain       4,165   
    #2 Italy       3,612   
    #3 France       3,375   
    #4 Iran       2,893   
    #5 USA         2,122   
    #6 China       1,034   
    #7 Netherlands 761
    #8 Belgium   690
    #9 Brazil       296
    #10 Sweden       214

    they should guess how many cases a country has based on the number of critical cases… because that can’t lie by under testing…

  29. Just remember, most of the Americans who have CV-19 do not know they have it yet. And, only about 5% of them will require hospitalization and 2% will require a ventilator.

    And, we still don’t know if the antivirals work or if there will be enough of them to go around.

  30. I think they should track world epicenter by the number of critical cases…. that would put Spain and Italy first on the list….

  31. That is still the more-or-less-worst-case scenario. If cases keep doubling every 3 days as has been the situation in many places (not only US), then just one month is 10 doublings. That’d be x1000 the current number of cases.

    For US, 80K * 1000 is 80 million, 1/4 of the population, just one more doubling away from 1/2. But that said, it depends very much on the measures being taken. The various quarantines and other factors should slow things down.

  32. Nothing to draw satisfaction from. Also a week before you made a projection of infection of half of the population in two month.

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