New York Coronavirus Curve Flattening But UW Deaths Forecast Rises from 10K to Over 15K

The University of Washington has updated its COVID-19 projections for all states and for the United States.

Total COVID-19 deaths projected to August 4, 2020 in United States of America is now 83,967 deaths.

Three days ago the primary projection for the USA was 82000 deaths.

New York’s forecast has gotten worse and Washington IHME is forecasting over 15,788 deaths which up a lot from the previous forecast of 10,240 deaths.

California’s forecast is improving.

SOURCES- University of Washington IHME
Written By Brian Wang,

32 thoughts on “New York Coronavirus Curve Flattening But UW Deaths Forecast Rises from 10K to Over 15K”

  1. Simple math. Population times death rate. Social distancing will flatten the curve but it will also push out the end date of the infection. I don’t see them putting the fire out all over the globe or even all over the US. So I see it coming back again and again until we have an effective vaccine. Our only hope until the vaccine is that find a treatment that can lower the death rate significantly. Maybe blood plasma, monoclonal antibodies or some new anti-viral.

    The way to handle a crisis is to figure what the worse case is and work hard to make sure it doesn’t happen.

  2. your mixing political oil wars (started by Irak on Qatar) with civilian people dying from a disease globally, w’re passing 1.500.000 corona deaths while its only 4 months globally active. Corona doesnt care about your gender, age or nationality.

  3. I’ve been thinking about whether herd immunity is going to help, and it’s led me to a different possible problem:

    Might we see a REAL shutdown in about a month, with only maybe 8M by-then-recovered people willing to work?

    Suppose social distancing has gotten the virus’ R value down to 1.1 (new cases are still increasing so must be > 1). Maybe we need only about 10% immune (recovered) mixed in with the as-yet-uninfected ~80M “essential US workers” to make the virus start to die out: ~8M recovered.

    But we only have ~1.5M infected now (245K confirmed cases x6). So we need about 2.5 doublings, at ~5 days each, or about 2 weeks just to get past 8M infected. Then another 2 weeks for enough of even the mild cases to recover and be ‘safe’ to mix with the uninfected.

    But in those 2 weeks another 2.5 doublings of infections happens. So ~45M infected, recovered or dead. Assuming those are mostly essential workers, since they’re most at risk, about 40% of essential workers would be out sick.

    At that point if I were an essential worker, seeing so many co-workers getting the virus, I’d be wondering just how essential it is that I keep exposing myself to the risk of getting infected.

    I wouldn’t be seeing (nor believing) that we’d achieved herd immunity and the virus was dying out. I’d probably be blaming the recovered workers – maybe they came back to work too soon and they’re still infected?! Might be best if I just called in sick…

  4. My current estimate would put total cases at 6x confirmed cases.

    There’s been at least one study showing about 80% get only mild symptoms. Since mild cases generally don’t get tested but severe cases do in areas following common test qualification criteria, there’d be 5x as many actual infections.

    And when population cross-sections have been tested, about 20% of positive test cases were asymptomatic. So total cases would be around 5x-6x confirmed cases.

  5. Farmers do not all live on farms- Food production doesn’t all happen from a tractor. Farming, packing, shipping just for fresh produce alone takes an army of folks to orchestrate. This work is just as essential as any nurse or doctor….unless you plan on starving…wake up

  6. Once masks are available for every tom dick and harry and everyone has the trump pills in hand the virus becomes dead man walking.

  7. Reasons for cases to fall:

    People adopt social distancing as a long term habit
    Warmer, sunny weather kills more virii, helps with immune system response
    Lots of people have already caught it, some herd immunity
    Continuing “work from home if you can”
    Adoption of preventative practices (masks, meds, etc)

  8. Not every state, not every county is the same. Once size does not fit all.

    If all the farmers shelter in place then who is going to make the food? Who is going to ship it? Who is going to repair vehicles, etc.

  9. “top notch 5th generation fighters”

    LOL with what money? Gasoline is cheaper by the gallon than bottled water.

    Once the virus passes in Iran (the hard way because > 50% of the population gets it and 5% of the total population dies) and the Iranians don’t have to shelter in place then the Mullah’s are going to be preoccupied with perpetual riots.

  10. So since you aren’t sorry for the US ones, it obviously follows that you aren’t sorry for the Iraqi ones?

  11. CA peak deaths are said to occur on March 4 at a rate of 2-277 deaths per day.

    Quite the error bars there.

  12. Why do they think the number of cases will start to fall after a month? Are they factoring in social distancing or quarantine the entire time? Or are they expecting enough people to become immune or the rising temps to slow the spread? Why wouldn’t the number of new cases begin to climb again when people get back to normal?

  13. You have 400k patients requiring ICUs every month in US. If the units are not available because occupied by corinavirus patients all this people will die even if not a single virus patients dies.
    In one month.
    If you saturated the healthcare system for 2 months is 800k assuming that then the system can go back to normal immediately (no doctor or critical healthcare provider dies or is incapacitated by the virus). And I am still not including the virus deaths.

  14. That’s you projecting, making stuff up. Anybody can just throw out numbers. There are models from Stanford showing far fewer deaths. Not some guy on a forum post getting to 1m deaths. I’d take Stanford

  15. Under the assumption of an Italian-style complete lockdown able to stop the spread to 10% af the population and assuming 1% lethality on this 10% you get 250000-330000 deaths. As the lockdown in US is not as stringent and global lethality is higher you can easily end up with a million deaths by the virus, then you have the deaths of people that needed ICUs for other issues but they were not available. 5 millions need ICUs in US every year. If the epidrmic lasts 3 months and saturated the hospitals it means 1.25 millions extra deaths.

  16. Giving a very optimistic evaluation of the current data (31st March) you get 250000 projected deaths enforcing an Italian-style lockdown able to stop the spread to 10% of US population and assuming 1% lethality on confirmed cases. As the lockdown in US is nowhere as stringent an lethality globally is higher I expect way more deaths unfortunately.

  17. Better to have more than you need for emergencies. Come on, you’re a prepper, right, Warren? Stocking up on all the toilet rolls so no one else can get them? Surely you can understand the need for more beds. This is only the first wave, it’s not going to magically go away when summer comes. It’s going to come back, and it’s going to be worse.

  18. If this isn’t fear-mongering, what is? Headline:
    CBS News Admits Using Chaotic Italian Hospital Footage for New York Report

  19. I just read Cuomo is out there declaring that NY will need 37,000 ICU beds, but the dire projections from this study are FAR lower than 37k ICU beds needed. The study shows the peak at ~12.3k. Fear mongering! I’m not saying it will be fun, but stick to truth available not B.S. numbers pulled out of some crap model. The UofW study shows NY with 718 ICU beds for the full study, yet Forbes shows NY has about 600 available. Really? They can’t come up with more 118 beds? Garbage in garbage out. NY is already increasing capacity by at least 1000 beds. Model is not reality.

  20. Feds can’t. We have a constitution that limits powers. States need to do it. And, no we don’t need to do 6 week shelter in place. Dumbest thing you could do is that. More deaths would happen from the economic fallout than from the virus. Life must go on in the face of adversity. Suck it up!

  21. Moron, Iran does not have, nor will they acquire 5th gen fighters. Russian and Chinese fighters are 4.5 gen at best. Just look at the engines. ZERO exhaust cooling. Lot’s more make them not 5th gen. Trump stopped an attack mid-flight when he learned how many civilians in Iran could die from it. Sound like a war-monger to you? Iran kills thousands of it’s own citizens when they dare counter the Mullahs. Yeah, peaceful Iran, backer of terrorism worldwide.

  22. But to you, the person putting political words into the mouth not yet opened, this not political? Then why throw politics into it? Me thinks he doth protest to much. EVERY politician does that. All of them want votes and act like d-bags about everything! It’s not a Trump thing, it’s a politician thing.

  23. Wishful thinking. Where do they get this number from. The number of deaths will be in the million range unless someone finds a way to stop the pneumonia and finds it quickly.

  24. Trump is predicting 100,000 knowing it will top out around 80,000. In that way he can declare victory. Everything, including death, is political to him.

  25. I think hundreds of thousands of Americans are going to die of this. Several states such as Florida are simply not taking it seriously enough. The feds really need to crack down and impose a minimum 6 week shelter-in-place order nationwide.

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