New York Has Over 45,000 Tests So More Infections Were Found

The US has had over 182,000 coronavirus tests and 25,000 confirmed cases.

New York has had over 45,000 tests and has over 11,000 confirmed cases.

As of the afternoon of March 19, there have been 103,945 total COVID-19 tests reported. There were 11,700 confirmed cases.

There have been about 40,000 tests per day on March 20 and part of March 21. In the most recent 80,000-100,000 tests there were 13,500 confirmed cases.

There have been some indications that the shelter in place is extending doubling times beyond 10 days. Westchester county was the hotspot in New York but it is showing some early indications of slowing spread.

A More Moderate Scenario of Semi-Suppression

The trajectory of catchup on tests and slowed doubling could mean at the end of next week the US has 60,000-150,000 cases.

This could mean the US with abundant testing and the shelter in place for 3 weeks could turn a corner at 100,000 to 300,000 cases. However, there could easily be 2-4 weeks of additional spread at a slightly slower pace. This could easily move numbers up by 2 to 15 times.

Seniors are being sheltered in a better way Canada and the USA. Seniors are being more cautious and senior centers are keeping seniors inside and delivering food. The time bought with a delayed US wave would mean far better fatality and serious condition numbers for the US. The twelve-day lag behind Italy will show up with higher overall cases but much few serious cases and deaths per capita than Italy.

It is too early to say that this will prevent the overrun of the medical system and we still need to strive for better.

This positive scenario is assuming that the main run of the virus is 3 months per area and that there would be some reduced spread in the summer. There is still the need to prepare the medical system for the next wave starting in August and peaking in October.

We need the drugs to treat the serious conditions and we need vaccinations and we need new hygiene protocols and other procedures at workplaces.

We will need mobile phone tracking, high tech temperature checks multiple times per day.

SOURCES- COVID Tracking Project, John Hopkins, NY Gov Cuomo Press Conference
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture,

24 thoughts on “New York Has Over 45,000 Tests So More Infections Were Found”

  1. I agree that is the only way to truly measure the spread and therefore to determine responses. However, it’s more than the cost and availability of the test kits. Because each used test kit must be assumed to be positive until the test is run, everyone handling it must have the appropriate protective equipment – and that’s where the next bottleneck occurs in the logistics train.

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  2. Well how did Italy’s “Sunggle up to China” policy work out?

    Those who China loves they give the gift of virii. Kind of amazing to me that all of China’s closest neighbors did the best against the virus. Taiwan, Vietnam, Korea, India, Singapore. Almost like they don’t trust their neighbor.

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  3. You underestimate the influence of the AMA. The more often you have to go through a doctor, the more money doctors make.

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  4. China may be rebounding as we speak, and NOBODY trusts the Yuan, much less the country who brought this on the world.

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  5. Problem is, we are so far behind on testing thanks to CDC and government inaction. Politicians were making political calculations on how inconveniencing citizens would affect their reelection. It is also a situation of party first, country second for many of these same people who make decisions. The CDC has proved itself a worthless husk of wasted tax payer money. The scientists working there may be good, but the fiefdom tried to maintain power for itself and botched the whole response. From what I gather, CDC is still in complete disarray on what to do. The US will have no real response to this like the Asian countries did. I’m not talking about CCP repressive response, just things like S. Korea and Taiwan.

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  6. Read his post on a smartphone without formatting and thought he was replying to your comment. My misstake that I cannot retract since I don’t have an account..

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  7. If they invented aspirin today, it wouldn’t be OTC either. Drugs on the GRAS (Generally Regarded As Safe) list are only available without prescription because we already had access to them, and the public would have revolted if they had been taken away.

    The government doesn’t trust it’s citizens anymore, regards them as more like children than adults.

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  8. What are you talking about? Where does Brett claim that California has more cases than New York?

    Brett correctly claims that our knowledge of just how many people have covid-19, is almost zero due to lack of testing. And, I further claim that our understanding of the mortality rate is likewise very poor due to lack of testing.

    Note, we’re can be completely clueless to the true extent of infection, and still determine qualitatively that Washington statechas more cases than California.

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  9. A lot of preconceived ideas should go down the drain. For instance, if hydrochlorikin is somewhat effective against the Corona virus and about as harmful as aspirin, why not let people self medicate?

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  10. You are absolutely right.

    There are even articles in this site about test kits that cost 24 USD per test. At this price, it’s an absolute bargain. Even if you have to test everybody 10 times, it’s still a bargain.

    One of the more stupid problems is that tests “must” be administered by medical professionals. So pregnancy tests can be sold to women over the counter, but Corona tests not..?

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  11. My longer post was to offer a scheduled bounty for tests:

    test 1 to 10,000 are reimbursed $10,000.
    test 10,091 to 100,000 Are reimbursed $1,000
    tests 100,001 to 1,000,000 are reimbursed $100

    etc

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  12. I would advise initiating a random testing program, to be followed up by directed testing of anyone who has contacted someone to comes up positive, with the program expanded as test production increases. (Because we really can’t make enough tests right now.) The knowledge that most infected are asymptomatic carriers, but still capable of infecting people the contact, means that only testing people who show symptoms is insane. It makes economically ruinous lockdowns the only effective measure until a vaccine can be produced in mass quantities.

    Tests are easier to scale, because there’s no safety issue to hold them up, only efficacy.

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  13. The problem is that 1/3rd of the “act” is in the hands of a legislative chamber that wants to make sure Trump doesn’t win. (The other chamber is kind of meh about it.)

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  14. If you really want good data on the spread, you have to test people at random, NOT just people who are suspected to have the virus. As long as they’re only doing that, the data they produce is basically useless for extrapolating penetration of the population. It’s hopelessly compromised by selection bias.

    Indeed, if we really want to halt this epidemic, we need to test EVERYBODY. That’s actually the cheapest possible treatment, because once you know who is carrying a pathogen, (At this point a tiny fraction of the population.) and more to the point, who isn’t, (Again, at this point, almost everybody.) you can isolate the carriers, and then the people who aren’t carriers can go about their normal lives, returning the economy to normalcy.

    The big, glaring blind spot of modern epidemiology, in my opinion, is the failure to do anything near enough testing. The failure to have any interest AT ALL in what somebody is infected with, until they’re at death’s door. Nobody should ever get sick enough to interact with the medical system, without an effort being made to identify what they’re infected with. EVER.

    Modern epidemiology is like a weather service that only measures rain when houses are flooded. Like seismology that only turns on the seismographs when buildings start toppling over. It is operating 99% blind, as a matter of policy. We need to change that, and FAST.
    https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-mass-testing-experiment-italian-town-covid-19-outbreak-1493183

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  15. It’s about time the US does what it does best. The US deep state needs to sell the war against coronavirus. Corporate media can do its part also. Something along the lines of it was the coronavirus that hijacked 4 airliners on 9/11 and crashed them into the twin towers. A link to Saddam and Al Qaeda should not be too difficult here.

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  16. How are things going over there in Italy Luca. It is strange you haven’t been keeping us informed of what is happening in your country.

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  17. Not if each test costs much more than $50 in total cost from presentation to reporting. But yes, there would have been some dollar amount that would have made that work. There needs to be more of a war footing with the WH leading the charge to ensure there is a massive ramp up in all requirements to meet the challenge. That happened in WW2. That needs to happen now. No more fiddling while Rome burns. Come November that would lead to a certain victory for Trump. Will the WH get its act together and ensure a Trump victory?

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  18. If the government just put a bounty out to labs for testing, say $50 a test then the private sector would have tested the whole US population by now.

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