New York has had over 45,000 tests and has over 11,000 confirmed cases.
As of the afternoon of March 19, there have been 103,945 total COVID-19 tests reported. There were 11,700 confirmed cases.
There have been about 40,000 tests per day on March 20 and part of March 21. In the most recent 80,000-100,000 tests there were 13,500 confirmed cases.
There have been some indications that the shelter in place is extending doubling times beyond 10 days. Westchester county was the hotspot in New York but it is showing some early indications of slowing spread.
A More Moderate Scenario of Semi-Suppression
The trajectory of catchup on tests and slowed doubling could mean at the end of next week the US has 60,000-150,000 cases.
This could mean the US with abundant testing and the shelter in place for 3 weeks could turn a corner at 100,000 to 300,000 cases. However, there could easily be 2-4 weeks of additional spread at a slightly slower pace. This could easily move numbers up by 2 to 15 times.
Seniors are being sheltered in a better way Canada and the USA. Seniors are being more cautious and senior centers are keeping seniors inside and delivering food. The time bought with a delayed US wave would mean far better fatality and serious condition numbers for the US. The twelve-day lag behind Italy will show up with higher overall cases but much few serious cases and deaths per capita than Italy.
It is too early to say that this will prevent the overrun of the medical system and we still need to strive for better.
This positive scenario is assuming that the main run of the virus is 3 months per area and that there would be some reduced spread in the summer. There is still the need to prepare the medical system for the next wave starting in August and peaking in October.
We need the drugs to treat the serious conditions and we need vaccinations and we need new hygiene protocols and other procedures at workplaces.
We will need mobile phone tracking, high tech temperature checks multiple times per day.
SOURCES- COVID Tracking Project, John Hopkins, NY Gov Cuomo Press Conference
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture,