Sadly COVID-19 Will Be Worse Than Flu and as Bad as WW2 in Some Countries

Dr. Anthony Fauci, medical leading the US Coronavirus task force, says based on what he’s seeing, the U.S. could experience between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths from Covid-19.

Europe appears to be on track for two to six times more COVID-19 deaths than the USA.

The US usually has 30,000 to 60,000 deaths annually from the flu. The world has 350,000 to 650,000 deaths annually from the flu.

The US had 416,000 military casualities in World War 2.

There is an expectation that there will be multiple waves of COVID-19. It could subside in the summer and then return in the fall (August to December) and early in 2021.

The hope is that India, middle east, South America and Africa can avoid massive cases.

Written By Brian Wang,

81 thoughts on “Sadly COVID-19 Will Be Worse Than Flu and as Bad as WW2 in Some Countries”

  1. One you get it you should be good for life. Social distancing is slowing it down a lot but I don’t think social distancing will be enough to stop it cold. So, it will linger a lot longer than I originally thought. It will linger until we vaccinate a large portion of the population.

  2. Yes, in our country. I just don’t see they stamping it out. It will continue to kill people until they have a treatment and a vaccine. If they work hard and fast then we might only lose a few hundred thousand. But I see too much BS still.

  3. Simple math. They might flatten the curve using social distancing but they have to stamp out all the infections globally to stop it. They won’t. They will have to work pretty hard to keep new infections down until they have a vaccine. A lot of people will continue to die after they claim victory.

  4. Simple arithmetic based on what the world’s population and the corona death rate is. Do nothing and watch millions die.

  5. If you don’t react to it then it will kill about 3% of the population. Some countries might be less because only a small fraction of their population is old.

    But it seems that every country is trying social distancing so that should reduce the death rate. Not sure what they will do once they are forced to re-open their economies. I guess they will wear masks and gloves.

  6. Apparently if you’ve had a cold you’ve had a coronavirus. Not the pandemic virus but a non-mutated one.

  7. The US has not implemented anything close to the level of lockdown that Italy has, so the peak cases in the US will, demographic differences aside, be higher. Combine that with the available critical care beds and you can determine how well prepared the US will be for the peak.

    If you read the Imperial College analysis, they estimate that without any suppression (as some on here advocate), then the resulting deaths would be horrific:-

    We estimate that in the absence of interventions, COVID-19 would have resulted in 7.0 billion infections and 40 million deaths globally this year. Mitigation strategies focussing on shielding the elderly (60% reduction in social contacts) and slowing but not interrupting transmission (40% reduction in social contacts for wider population) could reduce this burden by half, saving 20 million lives, but we predict that even in this scenario, health systems in all countries will be quickly overwhelmed.

  8. Can you cite a source for these ‘other models’ that predict fewer deaths for the ‘no cure, everyone gets it’ case?

  9. What i cannot undertand is why did China sell medical aid that is of too poor quality to use.
    EA if health workers would have used it, 40% of them would be sick. This is not better then nothing false protection is extremely dangerous since people offguard are not aware they had becomme high risk people. I just dont get it why ?.

  10. It will be once thru and gone.

    I hope you’re right, but we don’t know that yet. Some experts are warning that it may come back next winter. It may not even fully go away by then. Don’t count on the summer weather – it’s spreading just fine in the southern hemisphere.

    With the large reservoirs that may build up in 3rd world countries over the next few months, I would not be surprised if it comes back. Hopefully by then we’ll have more proven treatments and vaccines, as well as more experimental ones, so we can handle it better.

  11. Yes, as a ‘pop-media-oh-my-gawd-we’re-all-going to-die’ thing, it is true. But the proportion of “reinfection capable” people appears to be REALLY low. Well less than 1%.  So… only going to figure like ⊕0.01 on the critical Ro number.  

    Which is to say, of little importance at all, now-and-predicted.

    ⋅-⋅-⋅ Just saying, ⋅-⋅-⋅
    ⋅-=≡ GoatGuy ✓ ≡=-⋅

  12. All of this is assuming you can’t get reinfected which i have heard is happening in some places like china and elsewhere.

  13. Boy one day i’m sure he will have somebody working under him who is qualified to run disease models.

  14. Not true. 1-2m is based on 1 model. There are other models out there which predict FAR less than that number, without the shutdown. Garbage in garbage out.

  15. You don’t know if it’s more infectious than the flu! We don’t have the numbers in. We don’t don’t much of anything. This year’s major flu is H1N1, and it causes plenty of damage to people’s lungs. You are making unfounded statements. We will know when it’s over, that’s all she wrote. The rest is just a guess.

  16. I am having trouble finding any of your sources in your comment, Mark. Such an incendiary prediction must have solid sources?

  17. It takes a special kind of person to learn a language just so one can wish people death in their own language.
    Get a life.

  18. Yes that’s true, but unless you flatten the curve the health system is so overwhelmed by the initial peak, many more people will die than they would if care were available for all those needing hospital admission. In an unconstrained peak, the number of patients exceeds total health care capacity by 2x to 8x. That’s why cities hit hard are having to create field hospitals in sports and convention centres.

  19. If there was the slightest political will there would be no flu. Flu dies out and is made anew each year in Southeast Asia. It happens when chickens/ducks, pigs and humans live in the same hut during the rains. The birds give it to the pigs where it is modified a bit and then humans catch it from the pigs. How can we stop it? Genetically modified chickens and ducks. We just need a trade-in program.
    If it were my program, I would modify the birds so they look different…blue beaks or something. Then have a program where they can trade in 1 bird and get 2 of the new birds. Maybe have some modern birds that grow fast and others that lay a lot of eggs. Give them their choice. And the beak color modification should be on the same chromosome and physically very close to the modification that prevents flu susceptibility. That way, even if they breed with other birds, you know which have the resistance. Also have a deadline, so they don’t try to make lots of birds so they can have double of more.
    Given the losses to the world from this, such a program would be very cheap.

  20. No place in the US is locked down as hard as China – as attested by us now approaching 2x their confirmed cases in a nation 1/4 the size.

    But yes, there are some states like Mississippi that believe they know better. We’ll see how that goes – my guess is that their people are scared enough that they’re voluntarily social distancing.

  21. Perhaps it’ll just be 5 or 6 days, but from the end of day state numbers I’ve seen, March 29 average USA daily increase was just 16%, with a backward doubling time of 4 days.

    That is down to about half of the March 23 rate, when the forward-doubling time was 3 days and backward doubling was 2 days.

  22. whether you referring to the ventilator part of his comment on flattening the curve. The latter is correct. Flattening the curve does not reduce the number of infections. The same number of people will get infected, it will just take longer.

  23. Only increases the time between infections. It does not reduce the number of infections. What flattening the curve does is prevent the health system being overrun by a deluge of sick people.

  24. is only so disinclined after the Iranians bombed the crap out of US bases in Iraq with impunity. The deep state knows very well the consequences of attacking Iran.

  25. Wishful thinking. Half the country hasn’t even locked down yet like China or Italy did. As long as there are people running about infecting more people, we won’t reach a plateau anytime soon.

  26. I don’t understand why people refuse to take the vaccination and volunteer to die. BTW, it will be a lot more than 100K dead.

  27. 60K? Now that is some BS assumptions. The only way to reach 60K is to assume most of us are already infected. I don’t see that. What I see is 1.5% of the American population or about 5 million dead. I am hoping they find something to mitigate the disease soon and keep the number of dead to only about 1 million.

  28. Corona is not the cold and not the flu. It will be once thru and gone. The exact same one won’t come back. But if the Chinese keep their wet markets open and keep eating the exotic animals then a different version will come again.

  29. There will be a lot more deaths than WW2. I would estimate a little less than 3% of the world’s population, not enough ventilators, which would be about 231 million. WW2 deaths where about 100 million. In percentage, WW2 was worse.

  30. If we paid as close attention to the flu as we do to this virus of the hour, we would no doubt multiply its count and panic in turn.

  31. From all the numbers, the number of daily new cases seem to have peaked in many countries, so social distancing seem to be helping. The problem is, how long can we continue this with the damage that is done to the economy. The Chinese are still finding cases that are not imported today. If it takes three months for the Chinese, it may take five or six months for us. That means this thing will have to go til Aug or Sept. Most likely, we will see multiple waves of this and we will be dealing with it for a couple of years til mid 2021( when, hopefully, we will have a vaccine).

    Prepare for a long siege.

  32. I know that you are immune to rational thought but has it occurred to you that it isn’t particularly difficult for the US to apply sanctions to Iran or Huawei? The US government is quite capable of dealing with the virus at home while sanctioning Iran abroad.

    Actually sanctioning Iran is far easier than starting a war. Also Trump seems to be disinclined to starting new shooting wars.

  33. New York City is an outlier and is not representative of the nation at large. The political machinery alone is classic and has been for over a century. Cutthroat.

  34. A nationwide shutdown is a severe overreaction. New York City with its dingbat mayor is another story.

  35. Did Fauci really predict millions of US deaths from coronavirus as you claim? No. He was referring to cases not deaths. Fauci said there “may be” up to 100,000 deaths. What is your goal as a propagandist, friend?

  36. shutdown only flattens the curve and does not reduce total infected

    I’m not entirely sure about that. What we’re seeing in countries like South Korea, is that if new infections are slowed down long enough, a few weeks later, the number of recoveries grows and catches up. So number of active cases goes down.

    Without slowing down new infections, recoveries can’t catch up until new infections saturate.

    The result is, when restrictions are gradually lifted, there are fewer sick people that can infect others, and more recovered people who should be immune. So the R0 should be lower, and further spread also should be correspondingly lower. In theory..

    Furthermore, it’s easier to track and isolate a small number of cases than a large number. So if number of active cases is reduced, it becomes easier to contain the remaining ones.

  37. The current case increase rate in the US is roughly 20% per day, which translates to 4 days doubling time. The growth rate does seem to be going down, but not fast enough to get a week-long doubling time. Let alone more than a week. It will take a little while longer to get there.

  38. Why do you post this blatantly false narrative? Are you sat in a bunker in Moscow? Good luck comrade.

  39. That is false. In Italy doctors choose who to help and who to let die. Those who are no helped, die. Simple. Some of those they help, live. Other people, with heart attacks, and similar, die. There is no hospital cars left for them. If you think the US would be better, then you are not familiar with comparative health systems. Italy has much better coverage of its population than the US.

    Adjusted for demographics, the US would see 2 million to 10 million deaths without any containment. If you are happy with that, then you and I do not share the same morals.

  40. For those arguing the point

    Its a novel virus from China. Nobody had much reliable information & all we had was the data & news from China.

    From that RO estimates were made & it didn’t look good.

    The disease lasts much longer than flu – weeks longer & leaves many patents with long term lung damage & damage to other organs.

    Many patients end up in much worse shape than the flu.

    Many patients are asymptomatic so alter the RO but the same can be said for the flu.

    It’s also more infectious than the flu.

    So the measures taken are required. As for when it will pass over who knows as at the end of the day politics is involved & we may end up in a world war.

  41. Flatly not true. The success rate with ventilators is about 5-10%. Considering a shutdown only flattens the curve and does not reduce total infected, the absolute worse case due to the medical system being overloaded is barely 10-15% additional deaths. Not millions.

  42. The US may be near peak new cases now – i.e. the flattening.

    If so, the next doubling time may be a week – maybe well over a week.

    The doubling after that would be even longer – or possibly won’t happen.

  43. I think you’re confusing two or three separate parameters:

    — The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) has been at least 10 times worse since the beginning, and still is. That is defined as deaths per diagnosed cases. Seasonal flu is 0.1%, COVID-19 about 1-3% while the local healthcare system isn’t overwhelmed, higher once it is overwhelmed.

    — The actual fatality rate out of all cases, depends on how many cases go uncounted, which is anyone’s best guess. Obviously this is lower than CFR, but who knows by how much. But what people tend to forget is that it’s lower for flu too, since its mild cases are also uncounted.

    — Finally, the absolute death count for COVID-19 has been lower than flu since the beginning. But remember that it’s still rising. We can make all sorts of estimates, but no one knows how high it will actually get when it’s done.

    Then there’s the issue of infectiousness. This virus is infectious while asymptomatic. I don’t know if that’s true for seasonal flu. But AFAIK their R0 is similar, maybe a little higher for this one.

  44. Without a shutdown, the deaths would be 1m-2m in the US. As it is with a partial shutdown, 100k is the low-end of the range and can only hoped to be achieved with a full shutdown as soon as possible. The longer we wait the worse it will be.

  45. How would 15m be enough? We have 330,000,000+ people. Maybe 60m.
    And people often hang out with people of their own age. If all the elderly are holed up, when they end their self imposed incarceration and hang out with their friends…it all gets set in motion again. No one in that heard is immune.
    This appears to be more contagious than the flu and in bad years flu infects 45m…and that is with a lot of people being immune from some previous year.

  46. Neither does Wuhan Virus. We should ask those at greatest risk to act accordingly and ask those who deal with them to do the same. 3100 vehicle deaths per month projected every month into the future, without end. Yet, we still drive. Just buckle up, pay attention and drive safely. Same should be done with this. Life is not risk-free.

  47. Except last year’s flu didn’t require economic shutdown to contain to less than 100k deaths.

  48. OK…. Understood. I think we’ll have 2 more generations of doubling every 4 days, then it’ll extend each generation by 25%

    4 → 5 → 6.3 → 8 → 10 → 12 → 15
    4 → 9 → 15 → 23 → 33 → 45 → 60 … total days

    → 0.25 M → 0.5 M → 1 M → 2 M → 4 M → 8 M → 15 M

    Maybe quibbling, but that’s something around 3,000,000 instead of 10-15 million, in 30 days.  Based … of course … out of expectations pulled from between my bûtt-cheeks. 

    Remember Mark Twain...

    There are Lies … Damned Lies … and Statistics.

    ⋅-=≡ GoatGuy ✓ ≡=-⋅

  49. Boink! What?

    HERD immunity is when (one minus the proportion) of the population of an enclosed group having conferred immunity TIMES the average person-to-person transmission is technically less than 1.00, but practically less than 0.5 in order to quickly stem the outbreak and bring it to an end.

    For instance, of a population ‘N’, perhaps 30% of the population are not normally infected by random contact. Not everyone gets the flu, for example, or a cold or a sore throat, or …

    In that N, another group is highly mobile. To and between them, the Ro infection rate might be 5.  

    And another, to-and-from-work-and-the-store types, some contact.  Ro around 2  

    The average is … the average.  

    30% of Ro = 0.5 = 0.15
    60% of Ro = 2 = 1.80
    10% of Ro = 5 = 0.50
    SUM = 2.45 (how about that! Close to the estimate for CV19)

    Now up that by having 65% of them attaining conferred immunity.

    30% of Ro = 0.5 = 0.15 and taking out 65% of that leaves 0.05
    60% of Ro = 2.0 = 1.80, less 65% = 0.60
    10% of Ro = 5.0 = 0.50, less 65% = 0.17
    SUM = 0.83

    WAY better.  This exponentially runs out in quite a few generations. 20+ generations, an a total of 582 infected from 100 starting infections. But it runs out. 

    That’s kind of the point: you are RIGHT, once conferred herd immunity is enough. Until that time, without known quantities, its just a bunch of words.

    ⋅-=≡ GoatGuy ✓ ≡=-⋅

  50. Does seem that the epidemic new cases cannot keep accelerating in any given location it is introduced to for more than 3 month, however the the rate of acceleration can change relative to the response to it.

    People don’t get it, but this is how epidemics spread.

    In the next cold season we will prepared, the introduction will be only minimal and maybe insignificant.

    So let’s stay optimistic.

  51. They do not know the real numbers. These are just projections and ASSUMPTIONS. There is a Stanford model out there using ASSUMPTIONS which predicts 60k deaths. ASSUMPTIONS.

Comments are closed.