Washington Health Metrics Forecasts 40,000 to 160,000 COVID-19 Deaths for USA

The Institute for Health Metrics (IHME) at the University of Washington has modeled forecasts for each state and the USA.

The forecasts and models were run two days ago. They forecasted deaths, ventilator needs, ICU beds and hospital beds and shortages.

The US will need between 130,000 and 480,000 hospital beds. The most likely is a US peak need for 232,000 beds.

The number of cases will be about 400,000 to 1.5 million.

They forecast
USA – 40,000 to 160,000 Death range. 82,000 deaths main projection.
New York – 5,000 to 27,000 Death range. 10,240 deaths main projection
California – 800 to 17,000 death range. 6,100 deaths main projection.
Texas – 4,200 to 7,600 death range. 5,800 deaths main projection.
New Jersey – 1,700 to 11,000 Death range. 4,100 deaths main projection
Michigan – 1,400 to 11,000 death range. 4,060 deaths main projection.
Florida – 600 to 9000 death range. 3,340 deaths main projection.
Massachusetts – 400 to 7,200 death range. 2,230 deaths main projection.
Illinois – 500 to 5,900 death range. 2,450 deaths main projection.

They project the US will need about 19,000 invasive ventilators.
There will be a need for 35,000 ICU beds with about 15,000 new ICU beds needed.

The USA is predicted to peak April 14, 2020.
New York is predicted to peak on April 6, 2020.

This study used data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths by day from WHO websites and local and national governments; data on hospital capacity and utilization for US states; and observed COVID-19 utilization data from select locations to develop a statistical model forecasting deaths and hospital utilization against capacity by state for the US over the next 4 months.

SOURCES : IHME COVID-19 health service utilization forecasting team. Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months. MedRxiv. 26 March 2020.
Summary Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com

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