If Tesla Model Y and Cybertruck Match Model 3 Success

Tesla Model 3 has 80% of EV sales and is the number 6 car model in the US based on unit sales in Q1 2020. It has the highest sedan car sales by revenue. This is matching up the Model 3 against combustion engine cars like the Toyota Camry. The Model 3 had about 44500 units sold.

If Tesla Model Y was around the 6th best crossover vehicle in the US then the Model Y would need to have sales of about 45,000 units sold based on overall low car sales in Q1.

If Tesla Cybertruck was the 4th best truck vehicle in the US then the Cybertruck would need to have sales of about 80,000-100,000 units sold based on overall low car sales in Q1.

SOURCES- Tesla, Hyperchange
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com. Brian owns shares of Tesla

16 thoughts on “If Tesla Model Y and Cybertruck Match Model 3 Success”

  1. I would own one, its sort of growing on me.

    My brother has a Model 3 dual-motor LR, best car I have ever driven. What looked brand new by the model Mustang GT tried to race me when I was I driving it once, he revved his engine a bunch at a red light with a big straight away, I hit the accelerator pedal to the floor at the green light and he gave up in about 2-3 seconds when I was 100-200m past him. You could just hear his engine cut out when he gave up. The Cybertrucks are faster in the tri-motor versions than the 3s, that’s impressive for a 6000lb vehicle/battering ram.

    I am reminded of Bart Simpson’s comment on the Canyonero, “Fatal to people in the other car.”

    Then again, good luck trying to sell anything non-essential for a few months.

  2. Model Y order book began collapsing before Covid. Most likely getting worse now. That’s not a recipe for success.

  3. The Y is a different sort of vehicle than the 3. Probably better to update the 3 with the improvements from the Y.

  4. Considering the improvements of the Model Y over the Model 3, why isn’t Tesla working hard to retire the Model 3 early and favor the Y in sales? Clearly the Y is a better built vehicle, from a design and manufacturing perspective, and the high parts commonality means you aren’t throwing away most of the investments in the Model 3 production if switching wholly to the Y. Is the absolute cost difference not something Tesla can absorb, or are there things the Y can’t do well that the 3 does do well?

  5. I think that Combinatorics is suggesting that the world economy is in freefall and that a base Ford F150 is going to be as much a rare, luxury item as a Ferrari F150.

    Your next off road vehicle will require you to pedal.

    (I don’t personally think that things are going to get that bad, but this is how I interpret Combinatorics’ statement.)

  6. But it’s not ugly.

    It’s different. Very different. Striking. Unconventional. And not in the slightest bit “cute” or “pretty” or “beautiful”.

    But, especially by the standards of a big, tough, macho, off-road vehicle, it isn’t ugly.

    Not to say that everyone likes it. But ugly suggests that nobody thinks it looks good, (eg. Nissan Juke) and there are clearly lots of lots of commenters who do like the looks of the cybertruck.

  7. I don’t know if it’s fair to say a car/truck has succeeded until it’s being delivered to actual customers. I suspect a lot of people that have purchased it are first time truck buyers and since this is a really big truck I assume some will have problems driving it and other will be intimidated by a test drive. My wife’s friend had put down a deposit for a Model 3 but backed out when she realized it was controlled by a touch screen. Just buying a car after having just seen a video or two is not same as buying one in production. In the later case you are sure that it’s what you want in that the seats are comfy, the controls are handy and you find it easy to drive. That not necessarily going to be the case for this truck and wouldn’t be surprised if more people back out than was the case for the Model 3.

  8. I’m sure there is variation among market areas but in the US the light truck market is so dominant that Ford stopped making cars for the US market, except for the Mustang. From Statista.com,

    In 2019, the auto industry in the United States sold approximately 17 million light vehicle units. This figure includes retail sales of about 4.7 million autos and more than 12.2 million light truck units.

  9. They wouldn’t and they shouldn’t, the field in these segments is expected to get crowded with better matches.

  10. This is the most important thing that most people miss about the Cybertruck:


    If it were mainstream, Tesla wouldn’t be able to make enough to meet demand. The truck market is too big. Even a small market penetration would be too big to serve.

    Also, traditional truck buyers have the highest brand loyalty. Cybertruck HAS to look different so people have an excuse to buy it instead of buying their 4th F-150 in a row.

  11. I kind of like it, and if I had that kind of money to burn, (I don’t.) I’d have pre-ordered one myself.

    But unlike the Tesla sedans, this is a very unconventional looking car, and that will likely limit its market penetration.

    Of course, you can reach the sales levels discussed at a fairly low level of market penetration, so I wouldn’t bet against it.

  12. Uh, the cyber truck is going to cost $40k, a bit more than a base Ford F150 at $30k. However, the batteries in a Tesla will last close to a million miles. No oil changes, tune ups, timing belts/chains etc. so lower maintenance costs. Also, fuel prices are low now, but still cannot come close to how inexpensive it is to recharge the truck, so you are looking at $40-60 less per week in fuel prices. I and 600k preorders actually like the look of the truck. Battery price drop charts look like the price charts of solar panels, dropping like a waterfall, so this price point is going to be dropping over time. I am not sure how you can refute that.

  13. In a normal world Model Y wouldn’t match model 3 sales (it is more expensive) but model Y would do well. I doubt the truck matches model 3 sales, too ugly.

    However that isn’t the world we have. Tesla’s may start looking like unaffordable luxury items.

Comments are closed.