IMF New Baseline is -3% GDP in 2020 But World Could Go to -6% or Worse

The IMF has a baseline scenario of -3% world GDP. There is extreme uncertainty around the duration and intensity of the health crisis. They also explore alternative, more adverse scenarios. The pandemic may not recede in the second half of this year, leading to longer durations of containment, worsening financial conditions, and further breakdowns of global supply chains. This would mean the global GDP would fall even further. It could fall an additional 3 percent in 2020 if the pandemic is more protracted in 2020. If the pandemic continues into 2021, the world GDP may fall in 2021 by an additional 8 percent compared to the baseline scenario.

Written By Brian Wang,