Second Quarter Up to -40% GDP Growth From the Great Lockdown

The World is projected to have over $9 trillion in economic losses from the Great Lockdown. This assumes a relatively prompt and successful reopening of the world economy.

The Second quarter could see the US and other major economies with up to -40% GDP growth.

China’s GDP was negative in the first quarter this year.

The USA, Japan and European countries are all estimated to have -5 to -8% GDP in the first quarter.

JP Morgan has an estimate of -40% GDP growth in the second quarter of 2020.

Estimates for the UK are -25% GDP growth in the second quarter of 2020.

There are estimates that 2020 could see annual -14% GDP for the USA.

The IMF now forecasts the world will have -3% GDP growth for all of 2020. The GDP estimates and the economic damage will be worse for each month of full and significant lockdown.

Written By Brian Wang,

6 thoughts on “Second Quarter Up to -40% GDP Growth From the Great Lockdown”

  1. Investing 400 GigaDollars (billions) , provided the efficiency is at least 50% can solve great many problems. If spent over the next 10 years those money could probably solve aging, for example.

  2. It is like a Great Extinction event where the asteroid is coronavirus – the life forms it kills off are business entities and corporations.

    I’m wondering if this time the big dinosaurs are the ones that survive – all those huge companies with the cash reserves to carry them through this. The little mammals (small business) scurrying about now could easily die off.

    Maybe what will grow out of this is a new form of business – networked small entities cooperating to make profits using talented people distributed over very wide areas. They exist now, and could come out much stronger the longer this crisis goes on.

    And then of course there is Big Government – right now the source of all sustenance in the form of Economic Stimulus. We the People are living off the stimulus checks – and hearing they might become monthly. Is this where Universal Basic Income really takes off?

  3. This makes very clear that arguing against spending on infectious disease research and prevention is simple folly.

    The whole area languished for decades in favor of more competitive, sexy or “higher priority” spending, and now we pay the price.

    We were lucky for too long, so we became negligent and complacent, believing we would always have the luck on our side and dodge the bullet.

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