US Passing 1 Million Confirmed Coronavirus Cases

The US is passing 1 million confirmed Coronavirus cases, the world has over 3 million confirmed coronavirus cases and Europe has 1.3 million confirmed cases.

We do not have good test and data based results for infection rates based on the antibody test surveys. Various statistical modeling and testing problems are discussed at the link to a Columbia University Statistician.

None of the COVID-19 antibody test are accurate enough for mass screening. In early April, the FDA gave an emergency authorization to its first antibody blood test for COVID-19. It was developed by Cellex. According to the company, the test agreed with positive results from PCR tests 93% of the time and negative results 96% of the time. This would mean that 4-7% percent false positives and false negatives.

If you have 1 percent of your population infected and you have a test that’s only 99 percent specific, that means that 50 percent of the time you will have a real positive and 50 percent of the time it won’t be. The Santa Clara California study with 5% infection rate is the product of statistical error.

We need tests with specificity very close to 100% accurately measure infection rates in the 0-3% range. 99% specificity and we are figuring out infection rates with about plus or minus 2-3%.