Washington IHME Model COVID-19 Peaked and Predicts Half the Patients by May 8

26 thoughts on “Washington IHME Model COVID-19 Peaked and Predicts Half the Patients by May 8”

1. Unless our model includes the behavior of 50 different states and DC then it isn’t useful. While the virus may have peaked in NYC, it is still growing in many other states.

2. Got a link for that? A SOLID link?

   Because by what I recall from the late ’80s we were supposed to have a 3-5C increase, which hasn’t materialized.

3. Even if many had a co-morbidity that might have contributed to their death within a decade, the death counts are “because of COVID19”, exactly the same as with the flu deaths you keep trying to compare this to.

4. Perhaps you missed the fact that the 1985 global-warming models predicted the 2020 data, and (gosh!) we now have 2020 data.

   The 2020 data confirms the modelling, BTW.

5. Have people died because of the coronavirus or with it.

6. Have people died because of the coronavirus or with it.

   I’ve posted Italian death stats a while back where only 12% of the deceased has no co-morbidities. The remainder had at least one.

   If your car’s brakes have failed, the steering wheel has jammed up, you’ve got flat tires and you hit a greasy patch on the road and die, then what killed you? The greasy patch on the road or all the pre-existing problems with your car?

7. understand the down votes. You are spot on.

   I want to see proper stats of how exactly people have died. Have they died of the coronavirus or died with it?

8. I wonder when the Indian “peak” will happen.

9. Yet the media is paid money, often good money, for just making stuff up and broadcasting it.

   So who are the real idiots? The public for listening to them.

10. Part of the problem with the Coronavirus models is we had bad numbers out of China. You can’t create good models with bad data.

    Same thing with 50-year climate models – you cannot create good models with bad data, and you MUST test the models against reality for them to have any sort of validity.

11. Media was screaming about how RAAAAAAAACIST and XXXXXXXenophobic he was for shutting down flights from China, and now they gripe he wasn’t doing enough soon enough.

    They really live in the moment, don’t they? And believe the world is just made up as they go along…

12. Has anyone given a thought as to how the 50 year climate models can be anywhere remotely accurate when the best – and many – scientists on the planet have tried to model this pandemic day by day when we have plenty of prior virus models to base assumptions on and still miss the mark by, like, a lot?

13. As the administration never ordered people into quarantine – that has been by most, but not all, of the state governors; I think your premise is incorrect.

    What I have seen announced is that they have established a Recovery Taskforce to look at how the federal government can assist in getting the economy restarted. Of course, you may be reading from news outlets spinning the information in different ways.

    I do anticipate that they will announce back to work guidelines concerning wearing cloth masks and non-hospital grade PPE in public.

    Being a resident of state with 8 million population and COVID deaths in the low dozens, I do think we have enough data to take a more nuanced approach to protecting the most vulnerable population while allowing a move towards normality for the rest of us.

14. You should educate yourself before calling people stupid. in 2018 the Flu killed 80,000 in US. With the lock down Corona won’t even kill that many. So you still have to ask the question where is the balance between death and economy. No one has perfect answer but you do have to ask question. We have enacted soft Martial law and printed 10% more money in a month on a flu comparable virus.

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4335693-inflation-alert-money-supply-expanding-26x-rate-of-qe1

    https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

15. I hear ya, but do yourself a favor and thanks hard about going back to work. The bug is in elevators, surfaces, and lingers in the air. They really are very very nasty little critters.

16. We had 13,000 covid deaths in the last 7 days even though we’re weeks into a massive shutdown. An average flu season is ~23,000 deaths.

    So clearly you are very stupid for comparing I to the flu.

17. Historical examples of people being “ordered back to work” have not ended well.

18. In a bit worried that the President is claiming rights over state governors, saying he can order people to go back to work again. There are a few sides to this. Being socially distant can certainly harm an economy. However, so can a pandemic, especially a second wave of one.

    I’m currently workin remotely. I’m also still dealing with getting my lungs back in shape after months of harsh bronchitis. So, if anyone, including the President– orders me to go back to work in an office building where I could catch this thing until it has more time to clear up– I’m going to step back six feet, and then I’m going to laugh at that person, REALLY freakin’ hard. Because I would literally take it as a joke.

    It does appear that people are practicing better hygiene, getting better sleep and that social distance is helping. It will undoubtedly play a factor in how quickly the spread of the virus can be brought under control. How long it has to go in is another question. I’m no specialist, but it doesn’t appear we’re ready.

19. Something is broken with the posting system… so this is a reply the Brett’s comment.

    That’s so true, we needed those restrictions on all international travel as early as possible (including via cruise lines.) The virus in NY came via Italy. Also bringing in tests from out of country when the CDC’s testing effort failed would have helped.

    Brett, stay safe!

20. So if NY has confirmed that 1% of their population has it and assuming that it is less deadly and 10% of the population actually caught it yet then they would have 10x the deaths if the let it run its course. Instead of 7,300 dead it would be 73,000 dead. If only 5% has caught it then you are looking at 146,000 dead.

    For one state.

21. Yeah a rough milestone. Saying that they could have 10x-20x more fatalities is saying quite a bit.

22. New York got to 1% of their population *confirmed* infected today. Depending on your multiplier, they’ve got 5% – 10% actually infected… NY City passed this several days ago.

    I considered posting a sarcastic congratulations to them for this achievement, but decided it was in poor taste considering how painful this is for the people there who have to live with their governments’ poor decisions.

    In the process of hitting this milestone, they also shot the infection rates of New Jersey and other nearby states through the roof (lots of commuters from NJ to NY, and I suppose a lot of the better off fled NY city for summer homes in nearby states where they thought they’d be safe, only to realize they’d brought the virus with them and helped spread it.

23. The social distancing is helping, along with improved hygine, but what would have really helped was shutting off incoming flights a month or two earlier.

    Probably not politically feasible, though: Trump can barely get travel restrictions from terrorist sponsor nations past the judiciary.

24. For a small clue, take New York’s deaths per million (513) times the number of millions in the US (320). And that’s just because they started taking it seriously a bit too late, not because they let it run completely uncontrolled.

25. Only a bad flu year because of the social distancing. And the social distancing will have to persist in some form for months.

26. As I keep saying, this will rank as a bad flu season. Not to minimize deaths, but this happens to humans once in a while. The panic was largely created by politicians and the media. However, the economic damage and debt is real.

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