The World has officially passed the 1 million coronavirus case level.
There are many undercounts from undiagnosed cases and undiagnosed deaths. There is also systemic underreporting. There is also massive under-testing.
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
25 thoughts on “World Passes Official Count of 1 Million Coronavirus Cases”
I find it odd that America always looks for a chance to bash other countries when they fail. Like, for instance, our leaders’ penchant for calling Russia nothing but a gas station. There can be no doubt at this point that America is very good at diversifying. I would have thought that our country would have blown up by now. But most of the time when something bad in the world happens, America mostly keeps muddling along, like the walking dead. Astonishing, really.
Reality Before March 2020—————Reality Since March 2020
Assume govt competence—————Assume zero govt competence
Trusted institutions————————Trusted people
Tail risk is kooky—————————Tail risk is mainstream
Boomers most powerful—————–Boomers most vulnerable
Productivity growth collapse———–Economic collapse
Social services Democrat—————UBI Communist
Corporate debt—————————–Government debt
Techlash————–Tech a pillar of civilization and lifeline to billions
Break up Amazon————————Don’t break up Amazon!!!
Reality Before March 2020—————Reality Since March 2020
110 months-job growth——————-10 million jobless claims in 2 weeks
10 year bull market all sectors———Winners / losers with extreme outcome inequality
Full employment—————————-30% unemployment
Suit, tie, wristwatch, business card—Good lighting, webcam, home-office background
Commute + traffic jams——————-Home + family
Last mile—————————————-Only mile
Restaurants———————————–Groceries + delivery
$100k-college———————————Deny $100k for webinar
Internal issues——————————-Exogenous shock
Lots of little problems——————–One big problem
Too much technology———————Too little technology
The 11 weeks towards ending the covid-19 lockdown…. by all means go running in the streets sneezing and coughing and rubbing your snot everywhere…
Week 1 250,000
Week 2 500,000
Week 3 1,000,000
Week 4 2,000,000
Week 5 4,000,000
Week 6 8,000,000
Week 7 16,000,000
Week 8 32,000,000
Week 9 64,000,000
Week 10 128,000,000
Week 11 256,000,000
end of story… pandemic done in the united states…
Greater Los Angeles versus NY Metro. Population density of NY metro: 5300 per sq mile
Population density of Greater LA: 550 per sq mile
SF Bay area: 1100 per sq mile
Death rates as a percentage of what?
India is facing an increase in cases due to a fundamentalist Muslim sect which has irresponsibly been holding mass gatherings in defiance of the Coronavirus lockdown:
Somebody should ask trump if he endorses the use of burkas, ski masks, handkerchiefs, scarfs, And Halloween mask in place of surgical masks…
Everyone is caught up in hysteria. Don’t talk to them now.
On its way to a billion.
you could easily find out if you get a serology study. hell, then you be exempt from this social distancing thing:
some controversy, some unfortunate truths, some soul-searching…
“…I’ve now seen multiple studies suggesting that up to 80 or 90 percent of patients who end up on ventilators ultimately die. At this point, I guess there’s no way to know if the other 10 percent would have lived without the ventilators. From what I can tell, most other hospitalized patients are getting supplemental oxygen, IV fluids and antibiotics. I have not seen any evidence on the effectiveness of these treatments. Many of those patients live, but we don’t know whether they would have recovered without hospitalization.
Answering the question about the efficacy of hospitalization would seem to be critical, though, since, as best I can tell, the main justification for shutting down society now is to prevent our health care system from being overwhelmed – especially the supply of ventilators. If our hospitals are overwhelmed, not only COVID19 patients, but others with treatable injuries/diseases might die. But if hospitalization is not actually saving COVID19 patients in large numbers, then all the costly social interventions we are implementing now are mostly just delaying the spread of infection….”
Long before anyone heard of covid19, there was already a move to shift production of all sorts of things out of China to places like India, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Mexico.
Why? Money. Or rather wages.
China had succeeded in the great game of industrialization. They’d done the low end production, the stuff that just takes a peasant with 1 hour of instruction. They’d won that battle. Then they end up with so much of their population working in the factories that the workers start to demand, and get, higher pay.
In return the manufacturers start to go upmarket too. From cheap slippers to cheap shoes to medium shoes to expensive shoes to mobile phones to cars.
But now it becomes too expensive to make cheap slippers in China. They get undercut by Indians and Pakistanis.
This is not a loss on China’s part, this is a win. That’s the point, to become a medium income county, on the way to becoming a high income country. But you can’t be rich AND cheap. So that lower end has to be abandoned, and the abandonment was well under way already.
Current official death count is 52000 from COVID-19, which is 3.5 doubling away from 600000. The doubling time is about 7 days, but that can change as the various clusters evolve. So give it a month or two. It will almost certainly pass seasonal flu. I highly doubt it will be over in two months. Europe and USA may pass their peaks by that point, but the 3rd world countries may be much worse off.
Well, for one thing, war casualties don’t spread exponentially.
On the positive side, there must be massive undercounting of recoveries too, who are people that are now at least partly immune.
It’s impossible to tell as the symptoms are varied, the methods of obtaining infection numbers are varied, the rates of testing are varied, and the methods of reporting are varied.
Death rates are somewhat more reliable.
I’m sorry, are you saying that the majority of the stuff China makes will now be made somewhere else in the world? All those phones and computers, all those zillions of consumer items, everything? And at a price people will pay? Laughable… As long as there are no import rules anywhere in the world about human rights or pollution or ethics in what consumer goods they buy, China will remain firmly in charge.
Except if we do nothing it would kill 100 million.
The flu kills about 600,000 a year. If we watched every infection and death from flu as closely as we do this bat virus the world would fall down around our huddled massed asses.
My best guess is that the world is closer to 12 million. But again, it all depends on just how ridiculously low the Chinese statistics were painted to be. The djinni is definitely “out of the bag”. Ain’t gonna be put back in the bottle none either. Or to mix metaphors further… that ship has sailed.
I’m just saying, but what difference might the ‘real number’ make? Its not like we’re going to send them big ol’ ships full of critically needed vaccines, or respirators, or sides of beef, or hams, or slab bacon, or good corn whiskey. We’re mighty unamused with China at this point, on a variety of levels. Knowing the exact number only exposes their mendacity: no way to save face, and moreover, no way for them to recover-and-become-the-primary-shipper-of-stuff-to-the-World again.
So, we have to treat China like that funky uncle which is ‘tolerated’ at Thanksgiving Dinner in spite of his unwillingness to drink responsibly and not become a garrulous sot, conversationally. We let China chuck forth her fantasy numbers, and we remember that she has tens of trillions of dollars, euros, pesos, ryals, pounds, crowns, francs. Like our garrulous uncle, who somehow owns all great-grandfather’s properties still … we really, really would be wise to not pîss him off. Get him another drink! Sure, you old Goat! Here you go.
China’s relationship with the world has become this; like any ethic-less totalitarian capitalist economy, she has worked hard to secure her markets and undermine-to-get-rid-of export competition, everywhere. For everything. Wheel and Deal, baby.
So, her COVID–19 numbers, as fantastically optimistic as they may be … are irrelevant. Almost no-one outside China … is related to anyone IN China.
⋅-=≡ GoatGuy ✓ ≡=-⋅
Just a short stop on our way to a billion.
China alone could be that high by now, but CCP won’t let anyone ever know that.
Well if you trust China and Iran’s numbers. And if you think India, Mexico, Turkey, etc have realistic numbers.
we passed a million a long time ago.
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