If you drive 180,000 miles in 12 years then a gas car costs about US$32,000 for fuel and maintenance. The new Tesla with a million mile battery and cheaper batteries would cost about $6000 for 12 years of operation for electricity and maintenance. A Tesla $25,000 Model 3 would be cheaper to own and operate than free gas car. You would still required to pay gas and maintenance. The Million mile Model 3 would still have 85% of driving range left. You could resell it for $16,000-20,000, which will be higher than the resale value of the gas car.
$25,000 Tesla + $5,000 of ten year operation is $30,000
Free gas car + $32,000 of fuel and maintenance is $32,000
Tesla will use CATL’s lithium iron phosphate batteries, which use no cobalt, the most expensive metal in EV batteries.
The cost of CATL’s cobalt-free lithium iron phosphate battery packs has fallen below $80 per kilowatt-hour, with the cost of the battery cells dropping below $60/kWh. CATL’s low-cobalt NMC battery packs are close to $100/kWh.
This would enable a 50 kwh hour pack to cost $4000 for the battery. This would enable a new Tesla Model 3 with over 300 mile range and have a total car cost of $25,000.
Tesla will start the new low cost batteries in long range model 3 cars in China.
The leaked information confirmed the terawatt battery factory plans. The larger factories will have 30 times the battery capacity of the 35 GWh per year Gigafactory. Tesla will produce a terawatt hour of batteries every year at new factories.
Tesla has also started producing battery packs that will last for over one million miles of driving.
Having batteries that last over 1 million miles lowers the operating cost of vehicles.
Ultra-long life batteries will greatly improve the economics of self-driving robotaxis and long-haul electric trucks. Current Tesla battery pack lifespan is about 300,000 to 500,000 miles. Long-haul electric trucks and robotaxis will have higher daily miles than your average commuter.
1 million miles of driving means you could drive for 50 years with 20,000 miles per year of driving.
A full-time Lyft and Uber drivers can easily put more than 1000 miles a week, which can translate to over 50,000 miles in a year. A typical New York Taxi (Taxicab Factbook) drives 70,000 miles a year. 1 million miles means 20 years of Uber driving or 15 years of New York Tax driving. Long-distance trucks can travel about 100,000 miles a year. A million mile battery would last for 10 years of long-haul truck driving.
A standard gas vehicle holds an average of 14 gallons, meaning the average tank of gas costs drivers $39.3. Alternately, the standard electric vehicle is considered to have a full charge at 50 kWh, roughly taking 7.2 kWh/hour to charge. Kilowatts, the unit of measurement which describes electric energy, is offered to consumers at a national average price of $0.14 per hour. This means that per hour, the average electric vehicle only uses $0.98, making the cost of a full charge $6.86.
Average fuel efficiency for US cars is 24.7 mpg. This is 350 miles of range. The Model Y and Model 3 get about 4.1 miles per kWh. The new cars and batteries should get about 5-6 miles per kWh. This would mean 59-70 kWh to drive 350 miles. $8.40 to 11 for a full charge versus 14 gallons costing $28 to 50.
The longer battery range and lower battery cost will remove the need for a battery pack change after 15-25 years and cut the cost of the battery pack in half. This means instead of $7500 in 15 years for a new battery pack it would be every 50 years.
The million mile battery would lower maintenance costs by $300-400 per year. The better range and lower battery costs will reduce operating costs. The lower selling price would make electric cars better than gas cars with a lower sticker price.
SOURCES- Reuters, 2Degree Institute
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com (owns Tesla Shares)
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
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