The number of people living in poverty in the world could increase, in comparison to the status quo in 2018, by between 85–135 million under a 5 percent contraction, by between 180–280 million under a 10 percent contraction, and, startlingly, between 420–580 million people under a per capita income or consumption contraction of 20 percent.
This is from a UN Working Paper – “Estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on global poverty”.
A decade of progress against poverty could be wiped out.
The poverty will mainly be in South Saharan Africa and South Asia.
The COVID-19 pandemic is bad. However, there will likely be a lot more deaths from infant and maternal mortality, undernutrition and malnourishment, and educational achievement from a massive increase in global poverty. The severity of the effects will depend on how long the pandemic lasts, and on how the national governments and the international community reacts.