Dr. Scott Gottlieb, member of the boards of Pfizer and biotech company Illumina and former FDA commissioner expects that any coronavirus vaccine that proves to be safe and effective will still probably only provide immunity for a limited amount of time, maybe “up to a year,” former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb said.
White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday he worries about the durability of a potential coronavirus vaccine, saying there’s a chance it may not provide long-term immunity.
The immunity’s not going to be long term in the form of a smallpox vaccine or a polio vaccine where you get the vaccine once and you’re protected for the rest of your life or most of your life.
The WHO has a DRAFT landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines – 2 June 2020 They list 10 candidate vaccines in clinical evaluation and 123 in pre-clinical analysis.
There are 200+ potential therapeutic and vaccine options for COVID-19, GEN has grouped the candidates into four broad categories based on their developmental and (where applicable) clinical progress.
Genetic engineering news lists its top 15 front runner treatments or vaccines.
Here is there list they categorize as good but not front runners for COVID treatments.
Category 3 are still being closely tracked.
The last category are ones that need more data before they can be assessed.
SOURCES- CNBC, Gottliev, WHO, Gen Engineering News
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
You act like the death rate is intrinsic to the disease. It isn’t entirely. Demographics (of people who actually catch it), especially age and blood type frequencies, health of the population, treatments, the quality of the healthcare, and the promptness of treatment, are all major factors. Get everything in your favor and it can be 0.1% or less. Everything against? Could be 9% or worse.
You can spew numbers, but if all the elderly and vulnerable are holed up, then your numbers are useless.
I have not-teams. I think both parties are atrocious. And even the wonky third parties I don’t like.
The more I learn, the less I like them. I do like Eisenhower a great deal (Interstate Highway System, other transportation infrastructure, no squandering on unneeded military equipment, and getting good value on what is purchased, nuclear power, investing in education of engineers and scientists–mostly by buying colleges good science and engineering equipment, bringing solders home unless there is an overwhelming reason to be fighting a war, and doing his darnedest to balance the budget) but there is no one running like that. And I sorta like Taft. Big fan of Trust-Busting. And he did much more of that than Teddy Roosevelt. Did a fabulous job in the Philippines. There almost certainly would have been continued problems in the Philippines if he had not taken the job as governor. Both men were excellent administrators, and had few scandals in their administrations.
Speculation. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC293221/pdf/jcinvest00331-0058.pdf
Notable in there are two things in particular. They gave people a big dose, and many were already immune 58%. That means they had the cold at one point. No reason to think that wasn’t years ago.
Of those that caught it when they infected people, and tried to infect them again, only 8% caught it again.
I did some quick and dirty look around the Internet and they said you don’t get the same one again you get one of the other 200. However, I dug a bit deeper. 8% of people did catch the same bug again in a test done in the 1950s: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC293221/pdf/jcinvest00331-0058.pdf
Over and over, I am dubious on, but who knows. In any case, it is a low percentage of people. That means there are still great prospects of there being enough vaccinated to stop the spread.
It is true that the immune system in overdrive kills people with this, but it is because the immune system can’t seem to invent an effective antibody. It is making all sorts of stuff but can’t find a solution. It is a probability thing. Bad luck. There isn’t just one solution, but their immune system did not find any antibody that worked. This is why treatment with antibodies from people who recovered is a great approach.
Never owned or fired a gun. If fact, I am not sure if I have ever even held a real gun 😉 We don’t know what we don’t know. You keep jumping at things that are said with poor scientific evidence. You emotionally choose what to believe. And that is fine. But attacking everyone who does not then agree? That does not make any sense.
And I act out of caution, not fear. I might experience fear…if I catch it 😉 But I am not afraid of catching it, I just do what I think is reasonable to avoid catching it. My highest concern is that if I caught it, I might spread it to others. That I take very seriously. I don’t want to be responsible for that and I certainly don’t want to cause people to suffer due to my “bravery” aka stupidity, aka inconsideration.
Jaywalking is not an addiction, it speaks to a caviler lack of caution. I read the statistics of what kills and injures people. Jaywalking a night kills quite a few people. 16% of auto fatalities are pedestrians, and most of those are idiots in the street. “Most pedestrian deaths occur in urban areas, at non-intersection locations, and at night.”
https://www.cdc.gov/motorvehiclesafety/pedestrian_safety/index.html
“…an estimated 137,000 pedestrians were treated in emergency departments for nonfatal crash-related injuries in 2017”
US statistics obviously. Somalia is probably the worst: 6.5% of cars are involved in a road fatality every year…obviously not all victims are pedestrians. Liberia could be worse though. They have the highest deaths per capita.
When you had the paragraph disparaging people you led with Jaywalking. I kind of want to meet the person who assess different risky behaviors and the first thing that comes to mind is jaywalking. 70 million obese Americans and 34 million smokers but led with Jaywalking.
it’s 0.2% or 0.5% it’s still damn low.
Wasnt it the WHO that tried to help china cover up the virus because it was just a cold, they tried to protect the world economy? It was Taiwan that went crying to Trump and he started shutting things down thanks to their alarmism.
Isn’t the dangerous foreign influence Taiwan?
Hrm, if it’s going to be like the yearly flu vaccines, then that also implies that, much like the yearly flu vaccine, there needs to be early isolation and minor adaptation of individual vaccines in the mix. The regular flu vaccine is generally targeted at 10 or less major flu variants, and those variants are selected via early surveillance of new strains.
But the rub here is that a lot of that early surveillance is done in china (for reasons I don’t understand/know), so it’s entirely dependent on early information disclosure by chinese organizations, or early access to samples for external organizations like the WHO. With all the political fighting and posturing, that gets harder. I would assume that current political maneuvering is already effecting the regular flu early surveillance information sharing, so expecting more COVID-19 sharing is already a big ask. China has been on a bit of an external PR spree, but that early surveillance information sharing requires results, not talk, and that has known/exposed dates associated with it.
It’s not an issue of whether I have the ability to go and get a shot. I can do that and so I would be vaccinated.
It’s about whether enough other people (yes, even those types, you know who I mean) get vaccinated that the herd immunity kicks in.
Herd immunity has been analysed 50 times a day for the last 5 months so I will assume you don’t need that explained.
It was actually your previous president who had tried to increase the healthcare level of your country, which for a western world isnt at a great level. Trump tried everything to brake the obama care down, resulting in poor people will not pay for health check’s and even the army was dismanteled of its biological experts. All Trump want is to be a little dictator put the militairy in NY streets. As an outsider i wonder how you people can be so blind to such things, are you only following the news your orange man has aproved blind for other sides ?
He has worsened how this disease hit your country, i’m sure some day this be a court case
( oh i forget as a dictator he’s above the law he simply fires judges ) .
Well fear is used to often these days, its just that people can and do get sick from the same common cold virus multiple times a year. So our body can defeat it and maybe a vacine does help more, but for some reason the body doesnt learn from it. Maybe its a good thing, cause cov19 deadly response might be from people where the body is in an overdrive reacting to it. Perhaps its our imune system itself that eventually kills us..
This might be where responsibility kicks in, if you have it.
With so many results, i think its not wise to put all betts on one medication.
people of age 60+ might be put up on trials,
Less risk in older people, as theyre past the hormonal time of making children.
If it works out good then go downward in age with prevention, essentially the working force ages, if thats fine, scholars.
Using multiple vaccines mixed medication, chance of the virus adapting to it will be less. on a country or state scale the mixes could differe as well to reduce the chanches even more.
Common cold coronaviruses like OC43 don’t give long term immunity to the *same* strain of the virus, possibly because the disease is so mild that antibody and memory T-cell levels are very low. SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV provide long term immunity, possibly because the infection was so severe.
Surely everyone has a team? It’s like the biggest sporting event in the world. Far more interesting than seeing who can bat the football onto the green or whatever.
Especially if you can cheer, boo and speculate from safely on the other side of the ocean.
I was trying to think of the most appropriate sport to compare it to, and I’m afraid I keep coming up with Professional Wrestling. Which explains a few things.
Dogs are often used for testing medicines and drugs once you get beyond the “mice and rats” stage, because dogs are more similar to humans.
I guess, large (10s of kg) placental mammals. Omnivores. Social (as you observe).
And I wouldn’t be surprised if millennia of human/dog cohabitation even means we share a lot of microbiome.
Obviously a primate would be even closer, but for historical (and prehistorical) reasons, dogs are much cheaper to use. Probably easier to control too.
Back on subject: An annual shot is annoying for those of us living in civilisation. But it’s real problem is that it makes it just about impossible (given 2020 world health resources) to give everyone in the 3rd world a yearly shot. So we’re not going to wipe this out the way we have been (slowly, too slowly) able to progress with the smallpox, rinderpest, and on to measles etc.
Gripping hand: Maybe this provides the driving force to actually develop that level of universal vaccination. At which point we will probably be able to take down a lot of other diseases too.
Very Putin or Xi of you. I would agree as soon as you agree to get rid of the electoral college and go to one citizen one vote (good luck with that agreement). Otherwise if you try to keep Trump in office after his 8 years we will find us in a civil war.
I don’t think the vaccine will last forever but I also don’t think it will be annual. Maybe every 3-5 years. I also think it will die out after a massive vaccination effort.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/fact-check-cdcs-estimates-covid-192612962.html
Together with a more advanced and less intrusive version of what we are doing – yes.
I like vaccines, I just don’t think we should put all our eggs in one basket. Distancing is working (up until last week some time), and vaccines take a long time to develop and with unknown efficacy in the case of novel viruses.
I don’t have a team in yank politics.
Who exactly is wishing death? I’m just pointing out that it is, in fact, not a cold. Scaryjello brought up having hope in Trump, I just wanted to point out that said “cold” might have adverse effects for someone like that.
Why are you down on vaccines? You buy all the thoroughly discredited nonsense about vaccines and Autism? Fail to see the benefits that vaccines engender against smallpox and polio?
Time for discredited malarkey to get tossed. Lives are at stake.
We need to use all the tools available to us.
I do think social distancing and staying in our homes is excessive at this point, unless you are very vulnerable. But avoiding hugs and handshakes, wearing a mask (though I would give people the option of a face shield instead, as well), frequent hand washing, requiring that shopping cart handles are sterilized as they are collected, and checkout counters and customer keypads cleaned every hour, plexiglass or other glass at checkout counters, automatic doors or doors open while open at all stores and restaurants, regular testing of food workers/farm workers of any kind, regular testing of delivery workers, taxi/Uber workers. And nursing home/healthcare workers should be tested daily, or at least twice a week. Public transit, tour workers, and museum/theme park/zoo/animal park/aquarium workers should be tested twice a week. Social workers in contact with dozens of people a week should be tested at least weekly.
I’d like to see the whole country tested the same day, and again a week later (and perhaps again depending on results), with all positives isolated under guard until free from infection. But, I doubt that will happen. And it would also have to be done in all North America.
That’s interesting. They do direct to get an annual shot:
https://www.merck-animal-health-usa.com/nobivac/nobivac-canine-1-cv
So maybe that is where Fauci got the 1 year part? I looked up the similarities and differences between dog and human immune systems. And they are very similar. I suspected ours was better, but that is not what I found. Theirs might actually be slightly better, but trivially so. We are both social creatures, so I guess it should not be a surprise. I guess I was conflating lifespan with immune systems.
But just because that shot only lasts a year, it does not mean that one or more of the vaccines in development or in testing will not do much better.
Mass adoption of a somewhat effective vaccine would be a way to speed the population to herd immunity. If it was 33% effective then that could be enough to reduce this virus to a minor nuisance. People could catch it but it would be hard to spread.
Diabetes, heart conditions, hypertension, obesity, etc. There are lots of comorbidities that are shared by people of every nation, creed, politicial affiliation.
It takes a special kind of person to wish for the mass death of their political opponents.
Politicians on your team AND the opposition team both include a lot of old people.
The story that there are no existing vaccines for coronaviruses is a bit scary, but thankfully not true.
There are no HUMAN vaccines, but at least one has been widely available for animal use for over a decade.
https://www.merck-animal-health-usa.com/dp/4
At the cellular level, I expect that there is no meaningful difference between making a vaccine for a dog and making one for a human. It’s just that up until January this year there really wasn’t much need for a human corona virus vaccine.
A cold that kills people. Old vulnerable people like Trump.
What are you basing the assumption that vaccines will last a long time on? Other vaccines? Because there are no other vaccines for coronaviruses, and the natural antibodies produced by the body in response to them only last a few months. Treatments are a reasonable hope, but the best thing to do is lock down and reduce the R number to a point where contact tracing is viable. Kill it completely. Restrict travel to and from countries where it still exists (likely America) and Bob’s your uncle, sane country doesn’t have it any more.
So in other words it going to be as effective as the flu vaccine and similarly it is not going to save us from the Corona Virus. The good news is that the virus mortality rate is going down, as seen by the article below and the graphs for growing global daily infection rates compared to decreasing daily deaths below it. In few years time Covid 19 is going to be as hazardous as other types flu but more infectious. We may decide that we don’t want to continue tracking it, isolating people, practice social distancing and wearing mask. To the extent that we do, we will get much better at it for sure.
https://hamodia.com/2020/05/31/new-coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-doctor-says/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
You can’t admit that there’s a huge asymptomatic rate because that would mean you have been wrong for the last 3 months. Of course you’re going to stick to your guns Mindbender… you are after all the smartest guy here. Only if Fauchi himself frequented NBF could we have more brilliant commentary. hypochondriacs make me sick. is that a pun?
I realize we never will, but America should completely leave the UN. When people used to say that in the past, I had no idea what they were talking about. Now, after the WHO scared the world into a shutdown over a cold, I realize how dangerous this organized foreign influence IS to the fabric of America.
Donald Trump 2020.
We should repeal the 22nd amendment and allow Donald Trump to serve until the foreign influence is beaten back. I’m perfectly comfortable living with BS covid, but I am not comfortable living without my president. I’m terrified that he will be out of office in 2024. He should stay or appoint someone to follow him.
Is a mere 0.26%.
The fear that the vaccines will only be good for 6 months or a year, I just can’t fathom. I think, with the shere number of vaccines, almost certainly many will last upwards of 10 years.
The mutation rate is low unlike the flu or colds. The reason we need new flu shots is because it changes. I don’t know what possible reason he could have had to say what he said.
I suppose if a billion people are infected, even with a low mutation rate that is still a lot of room for mutation. Even so, they should be able to make new vaccines for this much faster second time around…if they even need to. With so many vaccines, chances are some might still be effective even if there is a major mutation.
And then there are treatments. I am sill very optimistic that we will have very effective treatments…even ones you can get without a prescription. I bought famotidine the day it hit the news. Haven’t taken any. But at the first sign of infection, I plan to. Trivial downside. And it continues to impress. There were more articles out yesterday. And I expect there will be antibody injections for those that come to the hospitals sick. They will probably charge an arm and a leg…but…
Cold viruses mutate very quickly. This, on the other hand, has a very slow mutation rate. I also think that 80%-50% is just not right…at least if you are talking about people over 40. Kids? Twenty somethings, yeah, could be very light. Entirely unnoticeable? I think that is a stretch. I think you get people who don’t know they have it, but that does not mean they will not develop symptoms later.
I think there will be a huge market for vaccines for this. And if it only lasts a year that will please the companies to no end.
We really don’t need a perfect vaccine. All we need is one that cuts this thing down to a regular cold level rather than 100% prevention. The elderly, of course, would benefit greatly from a 100% reduction in symptoms.
People who refuse to plan ahead? People who have irrational pride in their immune systems? Same people jaywalking, riding bicycles without lights or reflectors at light, play the Lottery rather than the stock market, or just saving. They smoke and drink to excess, never exercise… And then there are the antiscience bozos.
That said, I would not jump at the first vaccine that appears. I am planning to avoid the Chinese one using Adv5, as that may cause obesity. I think there will be several vaccines, and I will be shopping for the best, or very decent if price becomes a factor.
SARS-COV-2 is quite more deadly than other common Coronaviruses, and its economic impact a lot bigger.
The risk of death was too low and there was not enough motivation to get out a regular Corona flu vaccine that would be used by a few hundreds of thousands every year at most.
But there is now for getting one potentially used by billions.
no, no, this is the thing:
“… Operation Warp Speed is following the right plan by paying for vaccine capacity to be built even before clinical trials are completed. OWS, however, should be bigger and should have more diverse vaccine candidates. The five candidates also all use new technologies and are less diverse than I would prefer. There are a lot of different vaccine platforms, Live-Attenuated, Deactivated, Protein Subunit, Viral Vector, DNA and mRNA among others. OWS has spent well under $5 billion. At current rates, the US economy is losing about $40 billion a week. Thus, if $20 billion could advance a vaccine by just one week that would be a good deal. As in the LA Times, “It might seem expensive to invest in capacity for a vaccine that is never approved, but it’s even more expensive to delay a vaccine that could end the pandemic. How much will Americans have to pay to be vaccinated??? A lot less than they are paying for not being vaccinated! The worry about profits is entirely backwards. The problem is that the profits of vaccine manufacturers are far too small to give them the correct social incentives not that the profits are too large. The stupidity of this is aggravating…”
Well Corona is one cause of common cold and we have not solved that with a permanent vaccine yet. Stands to reason a new vaccine also would not impart lasting immunity. I think a big point to mention is something like 80%-50% of people infected with Covid 19 have no idea they ever had it. Current Flu vaccine rates in America run about 47%. Good luck getting people to sign up for a “New” vaccine when the vast majority of people have nothing to worry about from the virus in the first place.