Technological Singularity Will Be Late But Antiaging and Advanced Biotech is Near

Ray Kurzweil predicted the Technological Singularity will be reached in 2045. This actually means there will be strong AI, something like AGI that is 1 billion times more capable than the human brain in many aspects.

The Lifespan.io rejuvenation roadmap shows that three out of nine major areas of aging have phase 3 clinical trials and three other areas have phase 2 clinical trials and all nine areas are at least at phase 1 clinical trials.

Nearly 14 percent of all drugs in clinical trials eventually win approval from the FDA according to a 2018 study from the MIT Sloan School of Management. Approval rates ranged from a high of 33.4 percent in vaccines for infectious diseases to 3.4 percent for investigational cancer treatments.

This means we really need 4 to 30 candidate treatments in phase 3 for each major aging category to feel really confident that there will be some pretty effective treatment.

In February 2020, Rejuvenate Bio launched a pilot study testing a combination gene therapy treatment efficacy in halting mitral valve disease for dogs. Most Cavalier King Charles Spaniels get mitral valve disease by age eight and this causes heart failure. Following demonstration of efficacy, they hope to expand their treatment to all dog breeds, as more than 7 million dogs in the US suffer from mitral valve disease. This should take about three years to get approved.

Rejuvenate Bio has proven a combination of three gene therapies in mice. Three longevity-associated genes (FGF21, sTGF𝝱R2, and 𝛂Klotho) were modified in mic eto combat age-related diseases and confer health benefits. They created separate gene therapy delivery vehicles for each gene using a serotype of adeno-associated virus (AAV8), and then injected the AAV constructs into mouse models of obesity, type II diabetes, heart failure, and renal failure to see if there was a beneficial effect. FGF21 alone caused complete reversal of weight gain and type II diabetes in obese, diabetic mice following a single gene therapy administration.

It could take 3-5 years for a lot of money to be made from the first dog gene therapy and then to move the combination gene therapy in mice to move to clinical trials in humans. The combination gene therapies against aging and obesity should be in humans by 2025-2030. These would be followed by a few dozen other combination antiaging and health improving gene therapies.

Obesity shortens life spans by up to 14 years.

Even after antiaging treatments are proven and approved it could take ten years to scale the treatments for billions of people at affordable prices. This deployment phase would be accelerated by a shift in the public.

Molecular Nanotechnology and Strong AI for Twenty Years Before Technological Singularity

Ray predicted that molecular nanotechnology to the point of nanobots for the body and brain would arrive in the 2020s. He expected Strong AI to emerge in the 2020s.

I think molecular nanotechnology could have a longer proving phase with several narrow and limited forms of molecular nanotechnology. There will first be atomically precise layers, DNA-RNA and protein molecular nanotechnology and molecular nanotechnology for specific atoms with fab scale costs. There will be hybrid molecular electronics integrated with advanced CMOS. This is being done at Roswell Biotechnologies.

We are getting the petaflops and exaflop computing systems. However, deep learning and reinforcement learning are not strong AI. Nextbigfuture believes we will be getting various powerful and profitable narrow superintelligence AI. Tesla, Waymo, China and others are spending tens of billions to create self-driving cars. It will take trillions and mobilization of the multi-trillion resources of the IT industry and effective technology visionaries to get there. AGI and strong AI probably will need a billion times compute power boost that will come from molecular nanotechnology. It could still take 30-50 years after those capabilities arrive to master AGI at the billion times human level.

Hopefully, an extra ten to twenty years of life will be enough to reach strong AI, general and potent molecular nanotechnology? If there are second and third generation anti-aging treatments that can get people to 120-150, will that be enough time?

There will be 10-30 year lags to access treatment. Getting the wealth or having the willingness to be an early adopter will make a difference.

SOURCES- Ray Kurzweil, Lifespan.io, added Analysis by Brian Wang
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com

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