Tesla 2025 and 2030

Here we examine how Tesla can impact the world.

Tesla is already worth $170+ billion in market value. In 2019, Tesla delivered 367,000 electric vehicles. In 2020, Tesla should deliver over 500,000 electric vehicles. The 2020 deliveries are in spite of COVOD-19 shutdowns.

Tesla will have the capacity to produce 200,000 cars in a quarter the fourth quarter of 2020. If Fremont and Shanghai are at full production then they should build 160,000 cars in Q3 and 200,000 cars in Q4.

The Berlin factory will be producing cars in 2021, a Texas factory could also be producing cars in 2021 and there could be further expansion in China and Nevada.

Tesla should be comfortably growing production by 50% every year through 2025 and possibly 2030.

2019  367,000
2020  520,000   [Without Shutdowns it would have been 600,000-650,000]
2021  1,000,000
2022  1,500,000
2023  2,250,000
2024  3,400,000
2025  5,100,000
2026  7,600,000
2027  10,000,000
2028  13,000,000
2029  16,000,000
2030  20,000,000

Tesla’s already have lower cost of ownership than other mainstream cars.

It costs about $800 per year to maintain and power a Tesla. $500 for electricity and $300 for maintenance. It costs about $2000 to fuel and maintain a Toyota Camry.

Tesla Semi’s should be much cheaper to operate than Diesel semi trucks.

Tesla will announce 1 million mile battery packs with 4000 recharges over 250 mile range. This could increase to 2 million pack 4000 recharges over 500-mile range. the premium Cybertruck will have more than 500 mile range. 3 million packs would come with 4000 recharges over 750-mile range. The extra endurance batteries will enable owners to provide vehicle to grid load balancing to generate $300-500 per month of extra income. Normally giving up 200 recharges each year would expend EV battery with 1000 recharges in 3 years. However, it would be worthwhile for a Tesla owner to earn $3600 per year over ten years and give up 2000 recharges.

Using up the vehicle endurance for ridesharing income would also be worthwhile with the extra capacity.

Around 2023, Tesla Semi-trucks could have highway autopilots that enable constant highway driving for cannonball run style deliveries across the US. Instead of stopping every 8 hours, future Tesla Semi’s could cut ground shipment delivery times from 3 days down to 1 day.

SOURCES- Tesla, Brian Wang analysis, Cleantechnica
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture (Brian owns Tesla shares)

12 thoughts on “Tesla 2025 and 2030”

  1. Better have good 5G reception then, so they can watch porn anywhere in North America. Even better, equip them with a Starlink terminal.

  2. “Normally giving up 200 recharges each year would expend EV battery with 1000 recharges in 3 years.”
    Math be hard, but that’s more like 5 years boss.
    “However, it would be worthwhile for a Tesla owner to earn $3600 per year over ten years and give up 2000 recharges.”
    The batteries cost less than $7200? No. From wiki: “300-and-500-mile-range (480 and 800 km) versions would be US$150,000 and US$180,000 respectively” Meaning 200 mile range = $30,000.

  3. Don’t see any financial basis to justify TSLA’s current market valuation. Never made any profit from producing and selling automobiles. Their primary source of profit comes from hundreds-of-millions-of-dollars in annual income from the federal emissions credit sales scam. Wish Musk and TSLA well. But good intentions, ambition and optimism are no substitute for solid financial results.

  4. I think the Teamsters lobby has even very busy grafting and corrupting your local congress to make damn sure that all autonomous driving semi’s have a certified, trained and qualified Teamster “Safety Engineer”, in the cab
    of every semi to make sure those new fangled computer things work right.

  5. Nikola is a real life incarnation of what sincere shorts think Tesla is. It seems to be a sort of Theranos play based on a crude superficial imitation of Tesla. The fact that it has worked so well so far provides insight into what shorts think about Tesla.

  6. I don’t understand how anyone can talk about Nikoka with a straight face anymore. It’s an empty shell, a complete fraud

  7. This is a very interesting comparison. One thing that should be included is the cost to install or upgrade to a reasonable charging capability at home. Perhaps ~$1000 to install a Wall Connector, presuming sufficient electrical capacity?

  8. Until Tesla gets both their Megacharger network rolled out AND those automated robot tentacle power cords installed at those chargers, you will not see high 24 hour utilization rates for long range trucking. Even with that, the recharge time is going to be brutal if they don’t want to damage their battery cells due to fast charging (even with very active cooling)

    Nikola is in a similar situation with the need to roll out a national hydrogen refueling station network, but at least in theory a hydrogen refill should be faster than than a megacharger recharge session. Arguably, there may also be a need for robot tentacle refueling hoses to increase the speed and safety of hydrogen refueling. It would have been interesting to see Nikola outsource autonomous driving and automated refueling to Tesla.

    The strange thing about Nikola is that they would have benefited a lot from rolling out a depot swappable power block (that large module that sits behind the cab), and start with a diesel microturbine to demo the basic EV drivetrain capability. They would need that anyways for use outside of the refueling network. That actually changed for them, as initially, they were going to use a diesel microturbine block, then a diesel fuelcell, then a LNG fuelcell, then the design transitioned to the current hydrogen fuelcell.


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