Here we examine how Tesla can impact the world.
Tesla is already worth $170+ billion in market value. In 2019, Tesla delivered 367,000 electric vehicles. In 2020, Tesla should deliver over 500,000 electric vehicles. The 2020 deliveries are in spite of COVOD-19 shutdowns.
Tesla will have the capacity to produce 200,000 cars in a quarter the fourth quarter of 2020. If Fremont and Shanghai are at full production then they should build 160,000 cars in Q3 and 200,000 cars in Q4.
The Berlin factory will be producing cars in 2021, a Texas factory could also be producing cars in 2021 and there could be further expansion in China and Nevada.
Tesla should be comfortably growing production by 50% every year through 2025 and possibly 2030.
2019 367,000 2020 520,000 [Without Shutdowns it would have been 600,000-650,000] 2021 1,000,000 2022 1,500,000 2023 2,250,000 2024 3,400,000 2025 5,100,000 2026 7,600,000 2027 10,000,000 2028 13,000,000 2029 16,000,000 2030 20,000,000
Tesla’s already have lower cost of ownership than other mainstream cars.
It costs about $800 per year to maintain and power a Tesla. $500 for electricity and $300 for maintenance. It costs about $2000 to fuel and maintain a Toyota Camry.
Tesla Semi’s should be much cheaper to operate than Diesel semi trucks.
Tesla will announce 1 million mile battery packs with 4000 recharges over 250 mile range. This could increase to 2 million pack 4000 recharges over 500-mile range. the premium Cybertruck will have more than 500 mile range. 3 million packs would come with 4000 recharges over 750-mile range. The extra endurance batteries will enable owners to provide vehicle to grid load balancing to generate $300-500 per month of extra income. Normally giving up 200 recharges each year would expend EV battery with 1000 recharges in 3 years. However, it would be worthwhile for a Tesla owner to earn $3600 per year over ten years and give up 2000 recharges.
Using up the vehicle endurance for ridesharing income would also be worthwhile with the extra capacity.
Around 2023, Tesla Semi-trucks could have highway autopilots that enable constant highway driving for cannonball run style deliveries across the US. Instead of stopping every 8 hours, future Tesla Semi’s could cut ground shipment delivery times from 3 days down to 1 day.
SOURCES- Tesla, Brian Wang analysis, Cleantechnica
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture (Brian owns Tesla shares)