Chairman of Volkswagen Predicts Mobility Company Will Be Most Valuable in 5-10 Years

Herbert Diess, Chairman of the Board of Management of Volkswagen Group, wrote on LinkedIn that the most valuable company in the world in 5-10 years will be in mobility :
Elon Musk delivers results that many didn’t think possible. They show that electric cars can be profitable. As one of the few automakers Porsche AG (e.g.), Tesla will drive through the Corona crisis without a loss quarter. It confirms to me that in five to ten years, the most valuable company in the world will be a mobility company – that Tesla can, Apple or Volkswagen AG,… Hot.

Apple, Amazon and Microsoft could each double in valuation to around the $3-4 trillion range within a few years.

The most valuable company in the world will need to be $4-5 trillion in 2025 and $7-10 trillion in 2030.

SOURCES- Linkedin
Written By Brian Wang, (Brian owns shares of Tesla and Apple and has stock funds and ETFs)

11 thoughts on “Chairman of Volkswagen Predicts Mobility Company Will Be Most Valuable in 5-10 Years”

  1. He’s advocating MaaS, but that requires both financial engineering and holistic transport mixes, and a backend that can deal with the traveling salesman calculation. Robotaxis do cover a lot though, especially if you have robobuses for ridesharing (similar to pickup/dropoff para-buses). Uber and friends arguably have better direct experience with the rider predicition and fleet management, but they never did the whole route planning thing that rideshare air taxis startups in the 90’s were having to deal with.
    You have the whole spectrum from suburban commuter trains, down to buses and the like, along with high density high cycle taxi environments in cities. If you had 2 person robotaxis in a meaningful manner (like those pseudo covered motorcycles/leaning quads, or something pod-like like the GM Puma concept), that could better deal with the high density scenarios.

  2. …and so does the EV movement lose any veneer of Greenie-weanie golf-carts usurping the Grand American Dream of the Open highway/ road-trip -or romp in the mud -or getting that pack of cigarettes from the convenience 1/4-mile up the street in your Escalade, etc. Is it about saving the Earth anymore or about re-imagining the personal vehicle as the extension of the personality of the driver – but electrified.. well, we can put that to rest: “… GMC will reveal its all-electric super truck, the HUMMER EV, later this fall, with production beginning in fall 2021.

    GMC says that the HUMMER EV will offer up to 1,000 hp, up to 11,500 lb-ft of torque (15,600 N·m), and a 0-60 mph time of 3 seconds….”

  3. I think what we are seeing right now is a chicken before the egg problem for BEVs.
    Their large acceptance and as a result, the infrastructure that they need is not quite there yet.The reason for that is that used BEVs are still too expensive for lower middle class consumers. Owners just don’t sell them or if they sell them, it is at too high a price. Once used BEVs fall in price to something comparable to ICE cars, _then_ we will see the BEV revolution really take off. As for ride sharing, I think it is great, but Covid certainly puts a wrench into that gearing up any time soon.

  4. If anything, this year will result in people moving strongly back towards the idea of having private, individual, places where they can relax and unconcerned about cleanliness and contact with other people (direct or indirect).

    I use my warm coat a handful of times per year, but I have no interest in timesharing one.

  5. Hmmm .. Elon said he is going to share Tesla IP. First, can he do that? Second, better choose an EV fund.

  6. was never convinced that self-driving would ever become full garage to garage within the foreseeable future, especially in cities. Not the tech – just the perceived reliability and safety. As Elon mentioned, expectations of safety are many-many times higher than with the typical human being’s safety record – which seems silly. I perceive self-driving as a localized thing with municipalities creating tolls for lengths of roads which the onboard system could wire into the local navigation-support network, sometimes regular streets, sometimes highways. Also, i think there is a larger number than realized of people who just want to be in control – hate traffic, etc., but want to pass, speed, change lanes, stare down peds, etc. Also unsure on the non-owned thing – i think that the need to have a vehicle that ‘feels right’ is crucial – something about having your own, like clothes – you don’t wear a particular item 95% of the time. Could be wrong. Maybe regular transit users may want an individualized drive but not own – which leads to the availability during rush hour question. Downtown demographic maybe different than garage-land in the uptown and suburbs. My experience is that once you have your own vehicle, unless circumstances are so anti-car (parking, price, gas) then you never go back.

  7. The couple of companies that come to dominate the global transition to fully self driving BEV networked vehicles will likely be in this class of multi trillion dollar companies. There are 2 billion human driver ICE vehicles whose function has to be replaced. In the process the couple companies that dominate the self driving software biz will be enormously profitable. There won’t be more since nobody wants to trust their life to a new or less safe self driving system. Pretty good may be OK for smartphone software but not for cars.

  8. This is just about sales to owner-drivers on the legacy model though. With approved L4-L5 FSD the whole nature of the market changes. It stops being about everybody having to own a car they will park someplace 95% of the time.

  9. Have we all agreed that EVs have solved all their problems, will meet all sectors and consumer preferences, and will be used in a mass market way that still allows comparable ICE convenience and reliability . Not so sure and that’s what will drive multi-car player success. Check the total saturation levels and the possible bottlenecks.

    1% saturation – to be successful-early adopter money, home charge 75%+, range > 200miles (now?)

    2% saturation – to be successful-early adopter money, home charge 50%+, range > 300miles, varying small models

    5% saturation – to be successful-50% models < $40k, home charge 50%+, range > 300miles, half-hour public charges every 50 miles, varying small models,small SUVs (2025??)

    10% saturation – to be successful-70% models < $40k, home charge 50%+, range > 300miles, half-hour public charges every 30miles, varying small models,small SUVs

    15% saturation – to be successful-70% models < $40k, home charge 50%+, range > 300miles, half-hour public charges every 10 miles/wait < 15min, varying small-med models,small SUVs

    20% saturation – to be successful-70% models < $40k, home charge 50%+, range > 400miles, half-hour public charges every 10 miles/wait < 10min, varying small-med models,small-med SUVs,small p-ups

    30% saturation – to be success-50% models < $40k, home charge 50%+, range > 400miles, 10% apts have chargers, half-hr pub charges every 5 miles/wait < 5 min, varying small-med models,small-med SUVs,small –med p-ups, fill-up is 75%ICEgas price

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