Financial “Analysts” That Humiliate Themselves With Tesla Forecasts

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas now has raised its main price for Tesla to $1050 per share. This is below the current $1450-1600 trading range for Tesla. Adam Jonas has a bull case of $2500. The $1050 case is based upon Tesla selling 3 million cars per year in 2030.

In December 2019, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas said he sees Tesla selling 100,000 Cybertrucks by the end of 2024, at an average price of $50,000. Jonas believes Tesla’s Gigafactory in China could perform better than anticipated and reach a production rate of 450,000 units per year by 2024/2025.

In December 2019, Morgan Stanley’s “base case” price target of $250 a share remains unchanged, as well as its equal weight rating on Tesla. Morgan Stanley had a $10 “bear case” on Tesla.

Adam Jonas is constantly throwing out three wildly different numbers (Bear, primary and bull case). This Jonas publicly broadcasting his cluelessness. Tesla Shanghai is already producing over 4000 cars per week which is 200,000 cars on an annualized basis. Tesla Shanghai should comfortably reach 5000 cars per week in months or a 250,000 cars per week annualized basis.

Local sources predict that Giga Shanghai could more than double its current production rate by the end of 2020. This would put Shanghai production at 8000 per week or 400,000 cars per year on an annualized basis.

Tesla built the Shanghai factory in under one year and could scale production to 400,000 cars per year in less than one year. The production ramp will happen about 12 months after Jonas said it would take 48-60 months.

Jonas main case of $1050 is that Tesla will add three new gigafactories and ramp their production by 2030. Elon Musk and Tesla plan to complete Berlin, Texas and one other factory with 12-18 months. Tesla should then be able to nearly fully ramp production within 12-18 months based upon what has been shown in Shanghai. This would mean 3 million cars per year around 2022-2023 and not 2030.

Most other analysts have been setting price targets far below the actual share price of Tesla for several years.

SOURCES- Tesmanian, CNBC, Morgan Stanley
Written by Brian Wang, (Brian owns shares of Tesla)