Tesla is trading at a valuation of over $250 billion.
If Tesla has no factory shutdowns they will build another 55,000 cars in future quarters and they are expanding capacity. This could be 160,000 cars in the third quarter and 200,000 cars in the fourth quarter. Tesla has auto margin of 25-30% and quarterly fixed expenses of about $1 billion. Tesla could make $1 billion in profit in the third quarter and $2 billion in the fourth. Tesla has $8 billion in cash.
Tesla could issue stock worth 2% of the company to raise $5 billion. This would be the money needed for another Gigafactory. The Berlin factory will cost about $4.4 billion. The Shanghai factory had an initial cost to Tesla of $2 billion and they had $2 billion in low-interest loans. Tesla could easily raise the funds and use new profits for three or four more gigafactories in 2021 and even more in 2022 and 2023 and so on. If production is 500,000 cars per factory then this would speed up production ramp by 2 million cars each year.
Here is a video of the status of the Tesla Berlin Gigafactory construction. Above is a picture of the Berlin Gigafactory under construction.
Oklahoma and Texas are competing with incentives to get a Cybertruck Terafactory built in their state.
SOURCES- Tesmanian, Tobias Lindh Youtube
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com (Brian owns shares of Tesla)
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
9 thoughts on “How Many More Gigafactories Can Tesla Make With Profit and Stock?”
What’s the short 100 word summary of the Criswell version of the Lunar power scheme and how it differs from the Japanese version? Also, while I love O’Neil cylinders – can’t they build space elevators for Mars? Mars could also be the place for untold billions. Indeed, because O’Neil cylinders require you to build the very GROUND before you move in, there might be a case for Mars colonies growing faster than space colonies. Every passionate Spacer (as in Space-only) talks about the exponential in-space situ of asteroids – but they require a full rocket to get about and collect those resources in awkward zero-g space mining we’ve never done before. On Mars, once the flatpack habitats are assembled, a settlement of a few thousand could – over time – easily turn into many billions even if the lines of supply from Earth are cut off.
Also, don’t forget the City Size Bonus. Just as with computers, towns have a kind of “Moore’s law” in which the more people you have living close together, the more you can get done. The basic rule of thumb? Every time you double a city’s population you get an extra 30% for free. EG: 5,000 people in one town and 5,000 people in another separate town produce the GDP of 10,000 people. But if they were all together in the one town of 10,000 people, they get the productivity of 13,000 people. That’s the work of an extra 3000 people. That is extremely important in off-earth colonies!
Please see Criswell’s plan for older(1984) and better idea. Shimizu requires full circumlunar cable before can start continuous operation, whereas Lunar Solar Power is go from the start. Otherwise, quite similar, except Criswell much faster using better detailed growth plans. BTW, H is avail on Moon, in the water. So is C, mixed in there. http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/pdfz/documents/2009/70070criswell/ndx_criswell.pdf.html Also, putting money into Mars from somewhere else is quite distinct from making a profit. Mars is almost unique in avoiding the possibility of cooperation with other Space ideas, O’Neill’s “The High Frontier”, a MUST READ, for example. Mars is a planet, like Earth, so we need to leave it, not go to it. Space IS the Place!
Oh yes! please please please. 3 minute summary of the Luna Ring below. But, I kind of want to see both developing – as long as Elon stays profitable in his other ventures, he can funnel personal wealth in setting up Mars.
Nikola Tesla – 124 years old today.
Wait. What? Third sentence from the end of the disclosures.
Brian owns SpaceX? How? I mean, I presume that means he owns a piece of equity in it. Are there traded funds that invested in SpaceX?
Though it looks like Musk may be forced to scale back the Berlin factory due to local interference, thus cutting out at least one battery production line.
Of course, other than in China, you build factories if there is a forecasted demand and profit, and in this case you don’t need cash, you can take a loan if you have good enough business case.
Ultimately there will be some limit to Tesla growth at least in car manufacturing. 70 million cars are produced annually. Assuming Tesla gets 30% of that share we are talking 23 million cars. At $50,000 average per car that’s about $trillion in revenue. Depending on profit margin and interest rate Tesla car manufacturing business would be worth between $1 to $2 trillion. So Tesla has a lot of room to grow.
The beauty of compound interest/exponential growth, even if not to infinity. Needs a profit to work! Mars has none, Criswell Lunar Solar Power or any Space Solar, L5 or GEO, DOES.
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