Tesla Can Get to $14,000 Per Share Even Without Robotaxi

In February 2020, I wrote a Nextbigfuture newsletter about my bull case for Tesla.

I have a variation on the high functioning EV company Ark Invest case which has a $3400 price target for 2024. The Ark Invest case assumes that Tesla only maintains its 17% world market share of electric vehicles. However, what if Tesla captures market share in China that matches Tesla’s 60+% share in the USA? This would be about 4 times more than the high functioning EV case. $14,000 per share.

If there is China demand at 60+% levels, then this would be 1.2 million cars if China has 2 million electric vehicles in 2020. This would take $11 billion of additional factories and expansion in Tesla in China. This make take 18 months to realize. If there was a series of expansions opening every quarter with another 150,000 to 300,000 cars per year of capacity.

2 million cars in 2021 is not out of the question. If those are at average selling prices of $50,000 each then that would be $100 billion in revenue by 2021. If those are at 25-30% auto margin and 15% profit margin then earnings would be at $15 billion in 2021. If PE was at 40 then this would be a $600 billion valuation in 2021.

Tesla would have to suck up all of the new battery capacity from Panasonic, CATL, LG Chem and any battery factories that Tesla makes.

Production ramping factories in US, China and in Europe and the launch of the Model Y, Semi and then the Cybertruck will continue to drive demand for all capacity that is built.

In 2021 and later, the Tesla story will shift more and more to even better batteries and self-driving.

There is also the power storage, solar roof, insurance and service and software businesses.

If you had acted upon my highly favorable Tesla articles or the bullish Tesla newsletter it would have been very profitable.

Elon having a lot more money to use just means he will change the world faster. His ambitions will only grow.

Other car companies are already weak. GM has over $100 billion in debt and Ford each have $150 billion in debt. Moody’s rates the Ford debt as junk. Elon will be able to buy more factories from failing car companies.

Fiat was buying $2 billion of zero-emission car credits from Tesla to avoid penalties for their polluting fleet. Tesla seems like they can earn 5-10% of revenue from emission credit sales.

The bigger Tesla is the more other car companies will have to make deals and perhaps license Tesla technology. This means Tesla could get per unit cash on sales of cars that they do not build.

Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com. Brian owns shares of Tesla

23 thoughts on “Tesla Can Get to $14,000 Per Share Even Without Robotaxi”

  1. Now 7 days later with Tesla going over 1700 (it was 1200 on the 3rd) .. I do agree its overvalued and looks bubble like, I still stick to its a amazing company but 1700 seems mad at this point.

  2. I don’t really get any of the extrapolations in this article. Tesla’s revenue growth has slowed considerably in the past year, which is inevitable due to the capital intensive needs of car companies. Also, Tesla is barely starting to squeak out a profit. There is no reason to think they’ll ever be close to 15% profit margin. 8% is a more reasonable long-term target, post-growth phase, when CAPEX as a % of revenue slows.
    Toyota has over 10x the revenues of Tesla with an actual profit margin, but Tesla’s market cap is 29% higher than Toyota, so massive growth is already built into the stock price. Even if Tesla was able to get to Toyota levels over the next decade, it’s not clear the market cap would increase unless massive growth is assumed from that point, but no single brand dominates the car market because people don’t want the same car that everyone else has. There is no status in having a common car.
    I consider this stock to be in a bubble, so it can go up or down wildly from these levels, but I don’t see much long-term upside unless they branch into something much more profitable and less capital intensive.

  3. I don’t know about the “robot taxi” concept. It may be technically possible but legally it may just not be feasible. I can see people throwing themselves in front of “robot taxis” for a chance to sue Tesla.

  4. and from your non reply I presume you have no actual argument beyond star trek .. beam me up scotty

  5. So that reads
    number one: the battery tech he’s invested so heavily in isn’t good enough and never will be (you cannae change the laws of physics Captn) .. SO .. it not good enough for ? Not good enough for the people who already own Tesla cars, if so where are the customer complaints around this give me a link… just putting a pithy Star Trek quote means naff all.

    so when the established players work out something sensible ? .. you mean the same established players that are at present pursuing E.V .. at the same time as massive political pressure begins to push on carbon fuels

    And then the stunning .. I suspect it won’t involve batteries, certainly not as we know them now .. then what will it involve? this secret `thing` that nobody is talking about, we need to switch out of carbon fuels ASAP not in the star trek era.

  6. Tesla is ridiculously over valued and it will go down hard, just wish I knew when so I could make some money on it. Why, numerous reasons but number one: the battery tech he’s invested so heavily in isn’t good enough and never will be (you cannae change the laws of physics Captn) so when the established players work out something sensible Tesla will crash hard. I suspect it won’t involve batteries, certainly not as we know them now.

  7. You directly have SpaceX? I thought they were private, so ordinary mortals can’t get that…

  8. One detail. It’s far better for Tesla to build new factories than to buy old ones. It seems that they cannot use the old equipment anyway…

  9. Luca, the rude, asked about D-Wave Systems (quantum annealing company). Luca gets banned because he is rude and makes an effort to be very annoying. If he could be civil then he would not get banned. Since he cannot be civil, he gets banned. D-Wave is a private company. No one can buy its shares but Venture Capitalists. D-Wave hit the qubit metrics that I predicted for them. In 2006, I said they would sell commercially before Dec 31, 2010 and I was right. They are still making various sales in the $10 million range with Google and Lockheed and various smaller deals. Quantum Computers have not taken over the world because they are not better than regular computers. This should happen but we do not know how useful it will be. The vast majority of problems do not need quantumness for solutions. The algorithms for regular computers are continuing to improve. D-wave and just more qubits – especially annealing qubits is not the leading edge of quantum computer work.


  10. They don’t even need to do a direct declaration. Sufficient complimentary regulations would create an environment where only chinese majority owned companies and/or supply chains, along with the backend cloud management and autonomous driving softwarebeing of chinese origin are functionally required.
    For example, all EV’s appear to be required to continuously report information to city traffic management organizations. Getting that up and running with the required interfaces has it’s own hurdles that favor specific chinese group companies.

    And that’s fine. That’s their call to make. Just means foreign brands would in the end be just licensing their brand name and perhaps some technolog to the local factory, as they get cut out of direct control and dividend shares.

  11. This is a full answer to Model 3, Coming from an established manufacturer in China. There are others. Promoting singularity where there is a market for plurality, as a mind control method to promote stocks for personal profit or any other reason is so backward, counterproductive, a likely consequence of being programmed by an authoritarian regime, so Chinese in fact.


  12. Tesla is up 60 times from its IPO. Will EV cars displace ICE cars? Tesla has 80-90% market share in markets. Just maintaining a 20% global share and there is the $3400 share price from Ark Invest. Apple had to contend with Android smartphones. Where is the cheaper, higher volume but about the same function EV to go against Tesla? I am the view that Tesla will continue to grow market share in China. Apple has moved up from 8% of China market share a few years ago to 20% in June 2020. Apple introduced a competitive lower priced model ($400). Apple has 40% share in the USA. If Tesla makes sub $30K models or gets to $20K models then what would Tesla’s market share in the world and in China be at? Does Tesla have better software? Do China EV makers perform over the air updates? Where are they on range?

  13. Gosh, you greedy capitalist… how dare you own stock.

    Just kidding… It’s great you’re investing… everyone should.

  14. It won’t happen to the same extent. China has a very advanced EV market, including segments that Tesla is positioned at and will be positioned at in the future, at a competitive price. To a certain extent this is also true in Europe, the German car makers are working very hard on their EV cars, and they are well established, albeit they have some way to go. Apple also did not take over China to the same extent that it has taken N. America.

  15. I have been repeating on my Tesla articles that I own shares of Tesla. I will add it to the profile. That I own the Nasdaq index with funds and ETF, I own SP index, I own Tesla, Netflix, Amazon, Cisco, Alibaba, Editas, other international funds. I could easily lay more position on Tesla and big tech (amazon, apple, google, microsoft, nvidia etc…). I also have SpaceX and invest and fundraise for startups. I am also involved in startups.

  16. China buys no regional airliners from overseas even though the foreign products are better. One possibility is that at some point China dictates that only Chinese-company produced electric cars can be purchased.

  17. This is a stock analysis. It is important to state if you own stock when making projections like this. And believe it or not, they generally prefer that you do, so they know you put your money where your mouth is.

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