Tesla’s Run is Not Over

The fact that Nextbigfuture has been right on Tesla for years is less important than the fact that Tesla has several more years of crazy share price growth.

The years of being correct is public evidence that Nextbigfuture has credibility as a Tesla bull. In Jan, 2019, I wrote about Tesla buying Maxwell dry cell technology to enable a tripling of battery energy density. This will also enable vastly more compact battery production in factories. Nextbigfuture expects the battery and battery factory announcements to be made at Tesla’s September battery day. The Nextbigfuture Maxwell battery articles were featured in youtube videos by Tesla bull Gali of Hyperchange.

Nextbigfuture has been bullish on Tesla for years. I have written about ten articles per month covering all aspects of Tesla.

Let me skip over the
* wonderful technology,
* the growing technology lead in batteries, electronics and software and
* the great financial model that they will continue to scale.

Apple was up 20 times in 2006 from 1997. Apple still went up 20 times from that point. The iPhone was introduced in 2007.

I equate the Model 3 to the iPod. The Model S and X are like the iMac and MacBook.
The Model Y and the Cybertruck are like iPhone’s and iPads. The products do not perfectly match up but you get the idea.

In 3 years, Apple, Microsoft and Amazon will be $3 trillion companies. Tesla will be up far closer to those levels.

Ford and GM make about $2000-3000 of profit on their average vehicles. Tesla makes $12,000 to 20,000 of auto profit on its vehicles.

Toyota made $5000 profit per vehicle.

Mercedes sold 2.4 million cars in 2019 at an average price of $40,000. There are over 7 million luxury cars sold globally.
There were 28 million SUVs sold in 2019 with average prices over $40,000.
There were 4.5 million pickup trucks sold in 2019 with average prices over $50,000.

The global car makers rarely displace a category leader. Toyota started and remained the lead of hybrid cars. Honda has sold the Odyssey and the most popular minivan for 20 years.
The Ford F150 has been the dominant truck for 25 years.

The big car companies could not stop the rise of Japanese car makers in the 1970s. They could not stop the rise of Korean car makers.

Ford now as $150 billion in debt and that debt is rated as junk.

Renault and Nissan are in financial trouble.

Toyota still has financial strength. In 2019, Toyota had over $36 billion in cash.

Toyota is expecting annual operating income to drop to about $450 million from over $2 billion.

Tesla would have made and sold 50,000 more cars this quarter if not for the shutdown of Fremont. Tesla could make and sell 160,000 cars in the third quarter and 200,000 cars in the fourth quarter. This would be $8 billion in car sales and $10 billion in car sales. Quarterly profit would be about $1 billion and then $2 billion.

The bears claim that Tesla cannot get past Mercedes in global sales?
The bears claim that Tesla cannot outsell Honda? Tesla in California outsold all cars including the Honda Accord and the Toyota Camry.

Tesla is completing the Berlin factory and will likely make a Texas factory and will expand existing factories as much as possible. Tesla has cash and profits to make a lot more factories.

Youtube channel Solving the Money Problem also makes the Tesla bull case. This could be easier for some people to understand.

Tesla Background Details

I wrote articles for the Nextbigfuture Newsletter and on the website. I touted that Tesla has years of domination and indicated that Tesla will join the other multi-trillion dollar companies of Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Google.

Tesla could become the largest global car maker by 2025. If a more conservative view is taken, it could take until 2030.

If you followed my advice and made a lot of money, please consider making a donation to support the sight and my research.





Thanks

SOURCES- Tesla, Wikipedia, Bloomberg, Motley Fool, Japan Times, LGA Consultants, Google Finance, Investopedia, Solving the Money Problem
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture (Brian owns Tesla shares and buys Tesla)